In the current context, Venezuela's
economic problem has no solution because the country suffers an extraordinary
situation: Venezuela experiences a cumulative devaluation of about 800,000 per
cent between 1983 and 2013.
This figure, which at first seems
incredible, is the true reality of the economy.
In Venezuela there is an official
price of the currency currently at 6.30 per dollar, which represent the same 6,300
bolivars of the 2008. In that year, 2008, the monetary authorities created a
new currency, the bolivar fuerte, (strong bolivar), and removed three zeros; so
1 bolivar of the present really represents 1,000 bolivares of the year 2008. However,
there is a secondary market, whose price cannot be disclosed in Venezuela because
it is forbidden by a special law on the subject. There are therefore two
realities: the official and the street.
If you compare the price of the
current unofficial currency - the figure that legally cannot be said - but
including its three zeros of 2008 with the price of the currency in 1983 - last
year that had a parity of 4.30 per dollar- the devaluation is approximately
800,000 percent. To verify this figure It is sufficient to only apply a simple
rule of three: if 4.30 bolivares was 100 percent, 800,000 percent is x.
800,000 percent of devaluation is an
extraordinary figure and I do not know if there is a similar experience in the
world.
An economy that has reached that
level of devaluation has no other alternative than to adopt extraordinary
measures also. That is the only way to combat hyperinflation Venezuela suffered
for years which has increased lately.
The alternatives for a solution in a
case like this are twofold: a) dollarization of the economy or b) to create a
new currency. The first alternative has advantages but also disadvantages, one
is that a dollarized country loses its monetary sovereignty; the second
alternative, if is done in a serious manner, may represent an effective
solution.
I have argued for a long time to
create a new currency, the bolivar oro,
(bolivar gold ) at par with the dollar, a new currency of free access in
the market with enough support in dollars and gold. I think that it would be
the solution, because wages and prices would be homologated to those in the
nations that use the dollar as its official currency.
Facts have proved and continue to
prove that none of the paths followed until now on foreign exchange have
yielded positive results. To find the solution would have to find a completely different
way to the followed so far.
The devaluation is, essentially,
what prevents solving Venezuela's economic problems: inflation, speculation,
shortages, low production and unemployment. The other problem is the legal insecurity
of investments.
Albert Einstein: "Problems cannot
be solved by the same level of thinking that created them."
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