Four priorities and programs for the world development

The most important problems and priorities of the world are: a) overpopulation, b) destruction of nature and the environment, c) poverty d) egoism and lack of social education. Following we will explain each one.

1.       Overpopulation

In the last 100 years the population grew more than in the rest of the humanity history; this has been a consequence of the advance in the science and technology. The trend of high growth has augmented in the recent decades and the perspective is that at mid and long term will be more intense. But the problem is that the resources do not increase in the same proportion.

1.1.  Solution

A solution is to develop a global campaign of education to promote the responsibility and to highlight that a family most have only the number of children that a couple can care, this mean, to feed, educate, to give medical assistance and to assure an appropriate home.

The campaign must be accompanied of concrete medical programs developed by the governments to help the population to reach the objectives.

2.       Destruction of nature and the environment

The world shows evident signs of the nature and environment destruction: climate change, contamination of the sources of water, pollution of the cities and too many other problems that affect the health and quality of life of millions of people.

2.1. Solution

There is no one solution because the environmental problems are innumerable. However, we can do something concrete to help the environment: it is a global program of reforestation, which might contribute to restore the balance of nature and to improve the quality of life of the people. The reforestation is an effective way to diminish the climatic change effects and, moreover, to protect the threatened sources of water.

3.       Poverty

The key to combat the poverty is the employment: good and stable jobs with fair salaries. To reach those objectives would be necessary to carry out three plans: a) a program of job training, b) a program to increase the number of jobs in the economy, that we have denominated the double working-day and the half working-day (1) and c) the creation of millions of ecological employments, through the global program of reforestation proposed in the previous epigraph. The countries might create permanent activities to plant and to keep diverse kind of trees for different uses and this would be a concrete contribution to the solution of the jobless.

4.       Egoism and lack of social education

They are the cause of the most world problems.

4.1. Solution

A solution is to employ the immense power of the mass media to create in the world population attitudes to favor the economic and social development; they are: a) To promote the responsibility in the family that, among other duties, require to have only the number of children that a couple can care, b) to protect nature and the environment, especially, to keep the forests, do not contaminate the sources of water and to do a rational disposal of waste and c) to develop campaigns of public health to teach the population rules to prevent the spread of illnesses.

5.       Conclusion

Of course, these ideas are not the solution of the humanity problems, but its application might create better conditions of life for millions of people worldwide. This kind of initiatives must be promoted by institutions of international influence, like United Nations and the World Bank. Without the sponsorship of those agencies the programs would not be possible. So that in the hands of the leaders of the United Nations, Ban Ki- moon and the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, is the possibility of to realize these initiatives.

(1)    http://www.amazon.com/Pablo-Rafael-Gonz%C3%A1lez/e/B001JOAE2U

The political effects of hyperinflation, the mirror in which Venezuela should look

The noted American economist Paul Anthony Samuelson (1915-2009), 1970 Nobel Prize for Economics, wrote a concept worth having ever present, Samuelson said that "The economic cycle presents to democratic nations a challenge, almost an ultimatum: either get control depressions and inflations extreme better than they did until World War II, or the political structure of society will be in danger." And he added that "the political strength of a democracy is closely linked to effective maintenance and strongly stable quality of life and high levels of employment, to the point that it would be safe to say that the multiplication of dictatorships and the resulting world War II were due in large part to the inability of the world to address adequately the economic problem." (1)

Samuelson was very clear that the Great Depression with unemployment sequel was what caused the political radicalization of Europe and the United States itself in the first decades of the twentieth century and so, after the war, published in its books the above warnings, to help political leaders avoid future repetition of such unfortunate occurrences.

The origins of inflation in recent years

The thirty-year period between 1945 and 1975, was called the Age of Keynes, a stage characterized by employment growth, production and economic recovery of countries devastated by World War II. But from 1975, due to currency manipulation in some countries, especially Germany, the world economy went into a period of uncertainty and the phenomenon of inflation and unemployment began to show signs of recurrence. Contributing to this, the decision of OPEC  in 1973, to suspend the supply of oil to the United States and the countries that had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War (October 1973), fact known as the Arab oil embargo, which caused a violent increase in oil prices and triggered the recession in the West.

The increase in oil prices created a new global financial reality, which gave oil countries extraordinary resources that had never before enjoyed. That immense wealth that came from the major industrialized countries, especially, as big oil buyers, returned to these countries in the form of deposits in their banks, as oil countries put that money in international banking. It is then when it begins to take shape the debt crisis in developing countries, which would become visible in the eighties, as banks sought ways to place the new amount of money among the developing countries. The developing countries were forced to contract loans as not having to pay the new prices of energy and the new prices of finished products bought in industrialized nations; this is the origin of the debt.

The facts stated above in the first instance affect the nations of Latin America, especially Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Peru, countries that experienced hyperinflation processes in the eighties and nineties of the 20^th century. A common element to the process of hyperinflation in these countries was the external debt crisis; there came a time when they could not pay their commitments and forced it to devalue their currencies, a fact that, in my opinion, was the main cause of hyperinflation in these countries, not excluding, of course, other structural elements.

Solution

The common solution to the problem of hyperinflation in each of the above countries was the establishment of a currency peg. That was the key decision of the economic program adopted by the Minister Domingo Cavallo, in Argentina, in 1991. Similar measures were taken by Bolivia, which had the highest rate of hyperinflation of the continent in the eighties and corrected by adopting a fixed exchange rate and fiscal reforms. Peru followed a similar path, like Brazil and managed to reverse the process of hyperinflation.

Venezuela should consider the experience of other Latin American countries

Venezuela, which is on the brink of hyperinflation, should consider the experience of the Latin American countries that have already gone through that process and design a control program hyperinflation. The concept of the stabilization program, unfortunately, is largely discredited, but may be created a formula to respond to the urgent need to prevent hyperinflation progress and this necessarily involves the creation of a new currency with fixed exchange at par the dollar, that I have called the bolivar gold. The cumulative devaluation in Venezuela is more than 800 000 percent when you consider the price of the market that you cannot say. When a country reaches that level of devaluation has no alternative but to generate the confidence needed to restore the balance of the economy and this requires tying to the international currency of payment, which is the dollar.

(1)    Paul Anthony Samuelson, Curso de Economía Moderna, páginas 3 y 420, Aguilar, Madrid, 1975, citado por Pablo Rafael González en Una Idea Concreta para Combatir la Desocupación, la Doble Jornada y la Media Jornada, página 8, Book Surge Publishing, 2006, North Carolina, USA. 

Los efectos políticos de la hiperinflación, el espejo en que Venezuela debería mirarse

El notable economista norteamericano Paul Anthony Samuelson (1915-2009), Premio Nobel de Economía 1970, escribió una concepto digno de tener siempre presente; dijo Samuelson que “El ciclo económico presenta a las naciones democráticas un desafío, casi un ultimátum: o consiguen controlar las depresiones y las inflaciones extremadas mejor de lo que lo hicieron hasta la Segunda Guerra Mundial, o la estructura política de la sociedad estará en peligro.” Y agregaba que “la solidez política de una democracia está estrechamente ligada al mantenimiento efectivo y firmemente estable de la calidad de vida y alto nivel de empleo, hasta el punto de que no sería aventurado afirmar que la multiplicación de las dictaduras y la Segunda Guerra Mundial resultante se deben, en gran parte, a la incapacidad del mundo para enfocar adecuadamente el problema económico.” (1)

Samuelson tenía muy claro que la Gran Depresión con sus secuela de desempleo fue lo que provocó la radicalización política de Europa y de los mismos Estados Unidos en las primeras décadas del siglo XX y por eso, después de la guerra, publicó en sus libros las citadas advertencias, para que los líderes políticos evitaran en el futuro la repetición de tan desafortunados acontecimientos.

Los orígenes de la inflación en los últimos años

El período de treinta años entre 1945 y 1975, fue llamado la Era de Keynes, una etapa caracterizada por el crecimiento del empleo, la producción y la recuperación económica de los países devastados por la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Pero a partir de 1975, debido a las manipulaciones monetarias de algunos países, especialmente de Alemania, la economía mundial volvió a entrar en una etapa de incertidumbre y el fenómeno de la inflación y el desempleo comenzó a dar signos de reaparición. A ello contribuyó, además, luego, en 1973,  la decisión de los países de la OPEP de suspender el suministro de petróleo a Estados Unidos y los países que habían apoyado a Israel durante la Guerra del Yom Kipur (octubre de 1973), hecho conocido como el embargo petrolero árabe, lo cual provocó un incremento violento de los precios del petróleo y desató la recesión en Occidente.

El aumento de los precios del petróleo generó una nueva realidad financiera mundial, en la que los países petroleros comenzaron a disponer de recursos extraordinarios que nunca antes habían disfrutado. Esa inmensa riqueza que salió de los grandes países industrializados, especialmente, como grandes compradores de petróleo, volvió a esos países en forma de depósitos en sus bancos, ya que los países petroleros colocaron ese dinero en la banca internacional. Es allí cuando comienza a tomar forma la crisis de la deuda de los países en desarrollo, que se haría visible en la década de los ochenta, ya que los bancos buscaron formas para colocar la nueva cantidad de dinero entre los países en desarrollo que, por lo demás, se veían obligados a contraer los préstamos al no tener como pagar los nuevos precios de la energía y los nuevos precios de los productos terminados que compraban en las naciones industrializadas.

Los hechos antes narrados afectaron en primera instancia a las naciones de la América Latina, especialmente a Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil y Perú, países que experimentaron procesos de hiperinflación en los años ochenta y noventa del siglo XX. Un elemento común al proceso de hiperinflación en esos países fue la crisis de la deuda externa, ya que llegó un momento en el que no pudieron pagar sus compromisos y ello los obligó a devaluar sus monedas, hecho que, en mi opinión, fue la causa principal de la hiperinflación en esos países, sin descartar, por supuesto, otros elementos estructurales.

La solución

La solución común al problema de hiperinflación en cada uno de los países antes citados fue el establecimiento de un cambio fijo de la moneda. Esa fue la decisión clave del programa económico adoptado por el ministro Domingo Cavallo, en Argentina, en 1991, medida que junto a otras de carácter fiscal le permitió a ese país controlar la hiperinflación, después de muchos años intentando lograrlo sin éxito. Medidas similares fueron adoptadas por Bolivia, que tuvo el mayor índice de hiperinflación del continente en los años ochenta y lo corrigió adoptando un tipo de cambio fijo y reformas fiscales. El Perú siguió un camino similar, al igual que Brasil y lograron revertir el proceso de hiperinflación.

Venezuela debería considerar la experiencia de otros países latinoamericanos

Venezuela, que está al borde de la hiperinflación, debería considerar la experiencia de los países de Latinoamérica que ya pasaron por ese proceso y diseñar un programa de control de la hiperinflación. El concepto de programa de estabilización, lamentablemente está muy desacreditado, pero se debe crear una fórmula para responder a la urgente necesidad de evitar que la hiperinflación avance y ello pasa, necesariamente, por la creación de una nueva moneda con cambio fijo, a la par del dólar, que he llamado el bolívar oro. La devaluación acumulada en Venezuela es de más de 800 mil por ciento si se considera la cotización  del mercado que no se puede decir. Cuando un país llega a ese nivel de devaluación no tiene otra alternativa sino generar la confianza necesaria para restablecer los equilibrios de la economía y ello requiere atarse, de alguna forma, a la moneda internacional de pago, que es el dólar.

(1)    Paul Anthony Samuelson, Curso de Economía Moderna, páginas 3 y 420, Aguilar, Madrid, 1975, citado por Pablo Rafael González en Una Idea Concreta para Combatir la Desocupación, la Doble Jornada y la Media Jornada, página 8, Book Surge Publishing, 2006, North Carolina, USA.