The mankind has not options. If this generation does not adopt the measures for preserving the environment in too few years the majority of the world will be a desert. The climate change, the garbage, the destruction of the water sources, the industrial pollution, is a true threat for the present and the future.
In Copenhagen still there is a hope. The development of a Global Program of Ecological Employments, through the reforestation, is an effective road for diminishing the global warming, protecting the nature and to attack the poverty.
Sponsored by the United Nations and the World Bank, and with the cooperation of the governments worldwide, this program might be a hope for millions of people in the entire planet. The decision is in the hands of the leaders that in this moment are in Copenhagen. God bless the world.
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta change. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta change. Mostrar todas las entradas
lunes, 7 de diciembre de 2009
martes, 17 de noviembre de 2009
The Political Economy in the 21st century, Theory of the Political Supremacy
To get the human beings happiness must be the purpose of the economics.
Objective of the essay
The goal of this essay is to demonstrate the necessity of building a new approach of political economy that helps to create a best world.
Historic vision
The development of the economic thought practically began in the 16th century. Previously, some philosophers, Thucydides (455-4009), Xenophon (430-355), Plato (384-322) and Aristotle (384-322) made some contributions to the economics. In fact, the term economy comes from the Ancient Greek and was Aristotle who made a first approach to the Theory of Value. In his book Politics, he distinguished between the value of use and the value of change and realized also some considerations regarding the Quantity Theory of Money.
In the Roman Empire we find the contribution of the Emperor Diocletian; he established the first control of prices in the economy and appears too the work of Varron (116-27) on agricultural economics.
After, in the Middle Age (centuries V to XV), highlight the Summa Theological of Saint Thomas of Aquino (1225-1274), who exposed the value of the just price, the just salary and condemned the usury.
Some years after appear the work of Nicholas Oresme (1340-1382), who criticized the reduction of the value of the money made by kings. The work of Oresme was the inspiration of Thomas Gresham (1519-1579) who demonstrated ---some years after--- how the less valued currencies displace the most valued currencies.
The Mercantilism
Gresham inaugurated the Mercantilist thought in the 16th century. The Mercantilism defended the thesis of the state intervention in the economy. The mercantilists sustained that the wealth of nations was represented by their stocks of gold and silver and by a positive balance of payments; this means, by the promotion of the exports and the restrictions to the imports.
Among the principal mercantilists authors must be mentioned the names of Juan Botero (1540-1617) and his book Reason of State; Antoine Montchretien ( 1575-1621), who employed for first time the term political economy; Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-1683); William Petty (1623-1687), with his book Political Arithmetic, considered, moreover, founder of the economics and Richard Cantillion (1680-1734) considered too founder of the economics.
The Physiocrats
Between the years 1760 and 1770 emerge in France a new economic vision. It was the thought of the Physiocrats, who’s sustained a different idea regarding the causes of the wealth of nations.
The Physiocrats thought that the agriculture was the base of the wealth and not the bullion (gold and silver), neither the advantages in the foreign commerce as had assured the Mercantilist theory until that moment. They believed in a natural order and were opposed to the state intervention in the economy. This represents the opposite thesis to the Mercantilism.
The principal exponent of the Physiocracy was Francoise Quesnay (1694-1774), who created the Tableu Economique in 1758, a model of economic analysis where he demonstrated the flows of the economy. This work was the base of the modern econometrics years after.
Classic Economy
In the year 1776 occur a fact that would change the economic history. It was the publication of the book An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, of the philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790). This book is considered the main economic work of all the times.
Smith contradicted the appreciations of his predecessors and argued that the industrial production is the most important cause of the wealth of nations increase and made a severe opposition to the intervention of the state in the economy.
Smith inaugurated the period of the Classic Economy, which other principal figures were Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834); Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832); David Ricardo (1772-1823); John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) and the main critic of the Classical Economy, Karl Marx (1818-1883).
This broad period of time, since the 16th century until the 18th century was characterized by a fact: the consideration of the economic phenomenon as a whole discipline: the political economy.
I think that the political economy was a method of analysis that took in account not only the economic conditions but the society as a whole. This method was used the same by the Mercantilists, Physiocrats and the Classic Economy.
The modern economics
In 1890 with the publication of his book Principles of Economics, Alfred Marshall founded the modern economics.
In the three previous centuries 16th, 17th and 18th, the economics was considered a subject of the Moral Sciences, a branch of the politics, and for that cause and methodological reasons it was called political economy. The founders of the economics were aware of the paper of the state in the economic behavior of the society.
Marshall developed the microeconomics. John Maynard Keynes called him “the founder of the diagrammatic economics…”
In 1903, thirteen years after the publication of his Principles, Marshall gets to create the Cambridge School of Economics and to separate the economics studies of the Moral Sciences and the politics. Since that moment the economics and the economists began a new road. They leaved the political economy and centered its efforts in concrete problems, in the microeconomics and in the new mathematical economics.
In the 46 years between 1890 ---with the publication of the Principles of Marshall--- and 1936 when appear the thesis of John Maynard Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, the Marginalist and mathematic trend dominated the scenario.
In that historic period emerged important figures that would tackle specific economic affairs. Francis Edgeworth (1845-1926) with is Mathematical Physics and his Theory of Distribution; Wilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) and his Manuale di Economia Politica; John B. Clark (1847-1938) Distribution and Wealth; Eugene Böhm-Bawerk (1851-1914) Positive Theory of Capital; Frank Taussing (1859-1940) Tariff History of the United States; Werner Sombart (1864-1920) DES Moderne Kapitalismus; Gustav Casel (1866-1945) the Nature and Necessity of Interest; Arthur C. Pigou (1877-1959) Wealth and Welfare and Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) the Theory of Money and Credit, among other economists.
In the already 46 years mentioned ---between 1890 and 1936--- the economic crisis acquired a new and intense dimension. The Communism obtained the power in Russia in 1917 and the radicalism found a fertile field in the impoverished European population. The inflation and the unemployment reached unbelievable figures in those years. This let the promotion of men as Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler and was the main cause of the First and Second World War. In the United States the Great Depression of 1929 threatened the real bases and the intellectual support of the North American capitalism.
The economic crisis discredited the economics and the economists: the old political economy and the new modern economics of Marshall and his pupils.
The paper of Keynes
John Maynard Keynes rescued the prestige of the economics. With his General Theory, he demonstrated that the control of the inflation and the unemployment were possible. He evidenced that the holistic method of the political economy was indispensable for resolving the economics problems. He tackled the crisis with an integral vision and proved that the control of the state and their investments are essentials for the economic progress.
The Keynes’s theory was a practice success and was applied in the United States, in Europe an in the rest of the world since the decade of the forty years.
“Keynes was the most important economic thinker of the 20th century. His influence was of such magnitude that the thirty years of the world economy success between the years 1945 and 1975 were called the Age of Keynes.
But as none remedy to the economics problems is permanent, the years of the Keynes success began to experiment problems and the crisis reappeared again. The increase of the oil prices since 1970 was one of the causes of the new global situation.
The monetary system established in Breton Woods in 1945 started to present problems at the end of the fifty years, when some European countries doubted of the dollar strength as instrument of international reserves, generating the prelude of a new world economic crisis.
In the seventy years appeared a new trend that hardly criticized the Keynesian model. It was the famous School of Chicago, which principal figure was the professor Milton Friedman, who revived the Quantitative Theory of Money. He asserted that the inflation is a monetary problem and that reducing the amount of money and adopting a policy of freedom to establish prices, wages and interests rates the inflation may be dominated…”
(1) Pablo Rafael González. Apreciación Crítica de la Política Monetaria, el bolívar oro. Monte Ávila Editores Latinoamericana, 2007. Pages 33 and 34.
Effects of the Neo liberalism
The intellectual position of the professor Friedman and the School of Chicago ---Neo liberalism--- was adopted by the government of Margaret Thatcher in England since 1979 and by the government of Ronald Regan in the United States. This policy was assumed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in those years and imposed to the rest of the world through the globalization.
The outcome of the globalization has been the enhance of the poverty and the environmental damage, the privatization of many of the public institutions of the undeveloped countries, the increase of the public services tariffs, the inflation and the augment of problems of balance of payments of the developed and underdeveloped countries.
For the industrial nations, one of the principal effects of the Neo liberalism and the globalization has been the financial crisis of the year 2008. The model affected and weakened the mechanisms of controls of the governments on the financial institutions.
The other great error of the model has been giving preeminence to the financial capitalism and to put the real economy in second place. These facts caused the explosion of the current crisis.
Conclusion
I think that the political economy is a method of analysis that take in account, holistically, the paper of the economics in the society. The political economy is not a doctrine but a system of thought for the global comprehension of the economics, politics, environmental and social relations.
The sin of the modern economy has been their partial approach, the micro vision of the economics. The modern economics has worked deep in the trees but has loosed the perspective of the forest.
The mistakes of the politicians and economists explain why does more of the three fourth parts of the world population remain in the poverty and the half live with less of $2 per day.
New challenges have arisen, among them the natural resources crisis as consequence of the overexploitation of the resources and the pollution. These phenomenons have created a new paradigm for the economy.
In the 21st century it is necessary to recover the method of analysis of the political economy and to build a new political conception for attacking the poverty, managing the problem of the natural resources and preserving the environment. With willpower it is possible to reach both objectives; God save the next generations.
Objective of the essay
The goal of this essay is to demonstrate the necessity of building a new approach of political economy that helps to create a best world.
Historic vision
The development of the economic thought practically began in the 16th century. Previously, some philosophers, Thucydides (455-4009), Xenophon (430-355), Plato (384-322) and Aristotle (384-322) made some contributions to the economics. In fact, the term economy comes from the Ancient Greek and was Aristotle who made a first approach to the Theory of Value. In his book Politics, he distinguished between the value of use and the value of change and realized also some considerations regarding the Quantity Theory of Money.
In the Roman Empire we find the contribution of the Emperor Diocletian; he established the first control of prices in the economy and appears too the work of Varron (116-27) on agricultural economics.
After, in the Middle Age (centuries V to XV), highlight the Summa Theological of Saint Thomas of Aquino (1225-1274), who exposed the value of the just price, the just salary and condemned the usury.
Some years after appear the work of Nicholas Oresme (1340-1382), who criticized the reduction of the value of the money made by kings. The work of Oresme was the inspiration of Thomas Gresham (1519-1579) who demonstrated ---some years after--- how the less valued currencies displace the most valued currencies.
The Mercantilism
Gresham inaugurated the Mercantilist thought in the 16th century. The Mercantilism defended the thesis of the state intervention in the economy. The mercantilists sustained that the wealth of nations was represented by their stocks of gold and silver and by a positive balance of payments; this means, by the promotion of the exports and the restrictions to the imports.
Among the principal mercantilists authors must be mentioned the names of Juan Botero (1540-1617) and his book Reason of State; Antoine Montchretien ( 1575-1621), who employed for first time the term political economy; Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-1683); William Petty (1623-1687), with his book Political Arithmetic, considered, moreover, founder of the economics and Richard Cantillion (1680-1734) considered too founder of the economics.
The Physiocrats
Between the years 1760 and 1770 emerge in France a new economic vision. It was the thought of the Physiocrats, who’s sustained a different idea regarding the causes of the wealth of nations.
The Physiocrats thought that the agriculture was the base of the wealth and not the bullion (gold and silver), neither the advantages in the foreign commerce as had assured the Mercantilist theory until that moment. They believed in a natural order and were opposed to the state intervention in the economy. This represents the opposite thesis to the Mercantilism.
The principal exponent of the Physiocracy was Francoise Quesnay (1694-1774), who created the Tableu Economique in 1758, a model of economic analysis where he demonstrated the flows of the economy. This work was the base of the modern econometrics years after.
Classic Economy
In the year 1776 occur a fact that would change the economic history. It was the publication of the book An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, of the philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790). This book is considered the main economic work of all the times.
Smith contradicted the appreciations of his predecessors and argued that the industrial production is the most important cause of the wealth of nations increase and made a severe opposition to the intervention of the state in the economy.
Smith inaugurated the period of the Classic Economy, which other principal figures were Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834); Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832); David Ricardo (1772-1823); John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) and the main critic of the Classical Economy, Karl Marx (1818-1883).
This broad period of time, since the 16th century until the 18th century was characterized by a fact: the consideration of the economic phenomenon as a whole discipline: the political economy.
I think that the political economy was a method of analysis that took in account not only the economic conditions but the society as a whole. This method was used the same by the Mercantilists, Physiocrats and the Classic Economy.
The modern economics
In 1890 with the publication of his book Principles of Economics, Alfred Marshall founded the modern economics.
In the three previous centuries 16th, 17th and 18th, the economics was considered a subject of the Moral Sciences, a branch of the politics, and for that cause and methodological reasons it was called political economy. The founders of the economics were aware of the paper of the state in the economic behavior of the society.
Marshall developed the microeconomics. John Maynard Keynes called him “the founder of the diagrammatic economics…”
In 1903, thirteen years after the publication of his Principles, Marshall gets to create the Cambridge School of Economics and to separate the economics studies of the Moral Sciences and the politics. Since that moment the economics and the economists began a new road. They leaved the political economy and centered its efforts in concrete problems, in the microeconomics and in the new mathematical economics.
In the 46 years between 1890 ---with the publication of the Principles of Marshall--- and 1936 when appear the thesis of John Maynard Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, the Marginalist and mathematic trend dominated the scenario.
In that historic period emerged important figures that would tackle specific economic affairs. Francis Edgeworth (1845-1926) with is Mathematical Physics and his Theory of Distribution; Wilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) and his Manuale di Economia Politica; John B. Clark (1847-1938) Distribution and Wealth; Eugene Böhm-Bawerk (1851-1914) Positive Theory of Capital; Frank Taussing (1859-1940) Tariff History of the United States; Werner Sombart (1864-1920) DES Moderne Kapitalismus; Gustav Casel (1866-1945) the Nature and Necessity of Interest; Arthur C. Pigou (1877-1959) Wealth and Welfare and Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) the Theory of Money and Credit, among other economists.
In the already 46 years mentioned ---between 1890 and 1936--- the economic crisis acquired a new and intense dimension. The Communism obtained the power in Russia in 1917 and the radicalism found a fertile field in the impoverished European population. The inflation and the unemployment reached unbelievable figures in those years. This let the promotion of men as Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler and was the main cause of the First and Second World War. In the United States the Great Depression of 1929 threatened the real bases and the intellectual support of the North American capitalism.
The economic crisis discredited the economics and the economists: the old political economy and the new modern economics of Marshall and his pupils.
The paper of Keynes
John Maynard Keynes rescued the prestige of the economics. With his General Theory, he demonstrated that the control of the inflation and the unemployment were possible. He evidenced that the holistic method of the political economy was indispensable for resolving the economics problems. He tackled the crisis with an integral vision and proved that the control of the state and their investments are essentials for the economic progress.
The Keynes’s theory was a practice success and was applied in the United States, in Europe an in the rest of the world since the decade of the forty years.
“Keynes was the most important economic thinker of the 20th century. His influence was of such magnitude that the thirty years of the world economy success between the years 1945 and 1975 were called the Age of Keynes.
But as none remedy to the economics problems is permanent, the years of the Keynes success began to experiment problems and the crisis reappeared again. The increase of the oil prices since 1970 was one of the causes of the new global situation.
The monetary system established in Breton Woods in 1945 started to present problems at the end of the fifty years, when some European countries doubted of the dollar strength as instrument of international reserves, generating the prelude of a new world economic crisis.
In the seventy years appeared a new trend that hardly criticized the Keynesian model. It was the famous School of Chicago, which principal figure was the professor Milton Friedman, who revived the Quantitative Theory of Money. He asserted that the inflation is a monetary problem and that reducing the amount of money and adopting a policy of freedom to establish prices, wages and interests rates the inflation may be dominated…”
(1) Pablo Rafael González. Apreciación Crítica de la Política Monetaria, el bolívar oro. Monte Ávila Editores Latinoamericana, 2007. Pages 33 and 34.
Effects of the Neo liberalism
The intellectual position of the professor Friedman and the School of Chicago ---Neo liberalism--- was adopted by the government of Margaret Thatcher in England since 1979 and by the government of Ronald Regan in the United States. This policy was assumed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in those years and imposed to the rest of the world through the globalization.
The outcome of the globalization has been the enhance of the poverty and the environmental damage, the privatization of many of the public institutions of the undeveloped countries, the increase of the public services tariffs, the inflation and the augment of problems of balance of payments of the developed and underdeveloped countries.
For the industrial nations, one of the principal effects of the Neo liberalism and the globalization has been the financial crisis of the year 2008. The model affected and weakened the mechanisms of controls of the governments on the financial institutions.
The other great error of the model has been giving preeminence to the financial capitalism and to put the real economy in second place. These facts caused the explosion of the current crisis.
Conclusion
I think that the political economy is a method of analysis that take in account, holistically, the paper of the economics in the society. The political economy is not a doctrine but a system of thought for the global comprehension of the economics, politics, environmental and social relations.
The sin of the modern economy has been their partial approach, the micro vision of the economics. The modern economics has worked deep in the trees but has loosed the perspective of the forest.
The mistakes of the politicians and economists explain why does more of the three fourth parts of the world population remain in the poverty and the half live with less of $2 per day.
New challenges have arisen, among them the natural resources crisis as consequence of the overexploitation of the resources and the pollution. These phenomenons have created a new paradigm for the economy.
In the 21st century it is necessary to recover the method of analysis of the political economy and to build a new political conception for attacking the poverty, managing the problem of the natural resources and preserving the environment. With willpower it is possible to reach both objectives; God save the next generations.
domingo, 11 de octubre de 2009
The Ban Ki Moon and Robert Zoellick main challenges are combating the world poverty and preserving the environment
They are the leaders of the two most important political and development institutions, United Nations and the World Bank. And the mission of both is helping to build a best World.
The poverty and the destruction of the environment are the two great threats for the humanity.
I think that there is an effective form for helping the world to diminish the poverty and advancing in the preservation of the environment. The creation of a Global Program of Ecological Employments is a way. The first activity of that initiative should be to create a Global Program of Reforestation.
Which will be the benefits?
a) The creation of millions of new ecological employments that will help to millions of poor people worldwide and
b) The conservation of the environment, because of the positive effects of the reforestation on the climate change.
There are other alternatives for creating jobs. But the majority of them require a great amount of energy use, petroleum and/or coal. The effects of the use of fossil energy are well known.
In change, the reforestation does not need to employ great amounts of energy sources to be developed; that is one of its great advantages.
The reforestation is an efficient ecological way for combating the poverty and preserving the planet.
In the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in December 2009, Mr. Ban Ki Moon and Mr. Robert Zoellick, have the possibility of developing concretes actions for helping the humanity. The Global Program of Reforestation is one opportunity for the world.
miércoles, 7 de octubre de 2009
The ecological employments are an effective road for combating the world poverty
The environment crisis because of the contamination and the overexploitation of the natural resources is a reality. The extreme poverty of the world population majority is the other sad situation.The environment crisis and the poverty are closely tied. A solution for both situations might be possible. The unique manner of resolving the poverty is by mean of the employment. Without employment and just salaries the welfare is not possible.
But the creation of new jobs require three conditions: a) financial support b) natural resources and c) know how (technology). The modern world has scarcity of the two first mentioned resources and a concentration of the third (know how) in the most developed countries.
Which might be the solution?
I think that the creation of millions of green, ecological new jobs is possible in the world. (In this point it is necessary highlight that for achieving this goal we do not need more petroleum.)
How?
First of all it would be necessary to create a Global Program of Employment and Protection of the Environment. This kind of program only can be developed by the international agencies, the United Nations, World Bank and the IMF.
The first action of a program like this must be:
a) To create and to carry out ---with the support of the national governments--- a Global Program of Reforestation. The benefits for humanity of this activity in terms of employment and protection of nature it does not have limits. The creation of millions of new jobs and a great advance in the control of the global warming would be, among other, the results.
b) In a second stage, the Program of Employment and Protection of the Environment might develop other activities, as the developing of new jobs for protecting the water resources and managing the garbage.
The mentioned programs would generate millions of new jobs worldwide; protect the environment and diminishing the world poverty.
I would like that this idea might be considered as a contribution to the next Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in December 2009.
martes, 15 de septiembre de 2009
Climate Change affects the food production
I would like to write good news ever. But when you analyze the human behavior sometimes this is not possible; specially, when you consider the human being attitude regarding the natural resources conservation.
Man is a depredator of nature. He has a trend to destroy the wealth given by God to humanity.
Two hundred ten years ago, in 1798, a brilliant priest and economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, (1766-1834), in his Essay on the Principle of Population said that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.”
Malthus could not imagine that two centuries after the Climate Change would confirm his theory. Malthus did not know the Climate Change. The Pre Industrial civilization ---the Second Industrial Revolution began at the middle of the XIX century--- was a green and not contaminated world.
But now, almost 210 years after, the facts are confirming that the possibility of producing food for feeding the growing world population is every day less. The Global Warming is affecting the sources of water worldwide. Without water the agriculture development is not possible and the true is that every day the availability of this resource is diminishing in the world.
The World Bank in its World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate Change, warns that “the developing countries would be the most vulnerable by the Climate Change, with permanent reductions in GDP of 4 to 5 per cent for Africa and South Asia.” In the Foreword of the same Report, the President of the Bank, Robert Zoellick assures that “it is crucial that countries reach a Climate Agreement in December in Copenhagen that integrates development needs with climate actions.”
To adopt the measures for resolve the problem of the Climate Change and its consequences is something essential to guarantee the world surviving especially, the future of our sons, grandsons and the next generations.
Man is a depredator of nature. He has a trend to destroy the wealth given by God to humanity.
Two hundred ten years ago, in 1798, a brilliant priest and economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, (1766-1834), in his Essay on the Principle of Population said that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.”
Malthus could not imagine that two centuries after the Climate Change would confirm his theory. Malthus did not know the Climate Change. The Pre Industrial civilization ---the Second Industrial Revolution began at the middle of the XIX century--- was a green and not contaminated world.
But now, almost 210 years after, the facts are confirming that the possibility of producing food for feeding the growing world population is every day less. The Global Warming is affecting the sources of water worldwide. Without water the agriculture development is not possible and the true is that every day the availability of this resource is diminishing in the world.
The World Bank in its World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate Change, warns that “the developing countries would be the most vulnerable by the Climate Change, with permanent reductions in GDP of 4 to 5 per cent for Africa and South Asia.” In the Foreword of the same Report, the President of the Bank, Robert Zoellick assures that “it is crucial that countries reach a Climate Agreement in December in Copenhagen that integrates development needs with climate actions.”
To adopt the measures for resolve the problem of the Climate Change and its consequences is something essential to guarantee the world surviving especially, the future of our sons, grandsons and the next generations.
domingo, 16 de agosto de 2009
Obama is a modern and smart leader
Is Obama Socialist? I do not believe it. I think that Mr. Obama is a modern and smart citizen with a solid preparation. The main characteristic of the modern leaders is the capacity to accept and manage new realities.
The fear to the change is something normal in all the societies. Moreover, there are people and groups of pressure that reject the change. Those groups normally defend their own interests.
Usually the interests of those groups are in contradiction with the general interest of the societies. The insurance business is one of the most important in the financial field. They are one of the first sources of liquid resources in the economies. The insurance companies fiercely defend their part worldwide.
The mission of the politicians is to conciliate the interest of the people but thinking first in the interest of the majority.
I believe that Mr. Obama is thinking in the best interests of the American people. I decided to write this article because I saw in TV his meeting with the citizens in a school of Colorado the past Saturday August 15. And I had the impression that he has the reason in regard to the changes in the health care system.
When President Franklyn D. Roosevelt began to develop his New Deal Plan some people thought that Roosevelt was implanting a Socialist program. But that was not true. Roosevelt was only struggling with the great deficiencies created by some avaricious interests that provoked the Great Depression of the thirty years.
Mr. Obama is advancing in a new road that might be very positive for the US.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
The fear to the change is something normal in all the societies. Moreover, there are people and groups of pressure that reject the change. Those groups normally defend their own interests.
Usually the interests of those groups are in contradiction with the general interest of the societies. The insurance business is one of the most important in the financial field. They are one of the first sources of liquid resources in the economies. The insurance companies fiercely defend their part worldwide.
The mission of the politicians is to conciliate the interest of the people but thinking first in the interest of the majority.
I believe that Mr. Obama is thinking in the best interests of the American people. I decided to write this article because I saw in TV his meeting with the citizens in a school of Colorado the past Saturday August 15. And I had the impression that he has the reason in regard to the changes in the health care system.
When President Franklyn D. Roosevelt began to develop his New Deal Plan some people thought that Roosevelt was implanting a Socialist program. But that was not true. Roosevelt was only struggling with the great deficiencies created by some avaricious interests that provoked the Great Depression of the thirty years.
Mr. Obama is advancing in a new road that might be very positive for the US.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
lunes, 3 de agosto de 2009
A radical change in the economic theory
The concepts of the book Running Out: How Global Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, (Algora Publishing, New York 2006 and 2008), represents a radical change for the economic theory. The main idea of the book is that the world is facing an unprecedented situation: the global scarcity of natural resources, especially water and petroleum.
The phenomenon already has begun to be visible in many regions of the planet. An oil producer as Indonesia, for example, has exhausted their reserves and had to retire from the OPEC recently.
The oil reserves of the North Sea are in critical situation; the same happen in Mexico and in the United States. The situation of the water reserves is not best. In many regions of the world the water scarcity is already a reality.
The book assures that capital will not be the main scarce factor of production as has been until now. In the near future the natural resources will be the scarce factor of production and this means a complete change for the traditional economics concepts.
The overexploitation of the resources and the contamination of the environment are the causes of the situation.
Only the development of new sources of energy less contaminants, the massive construction of green cars and a policy of reforestation and conservation of the forests that still survive might diminish the impact of the problem. But it is necessary a global effort.
www.pablorafaelgonzalez.com
The phenomenon already has begun to be visible in many regions of the planet. An oil producer as Indonesia, for example, has exhausted their reserves and had to retire from the OPEC recently.
The oil reserves of the North Sea are in critical situation; the same happen in Mexico and in the United States. The situation of the water reserves is not best. In many regions of the world the water scarcity is already a reality.
The book assures that capital will not be the main scarce factor of production as has been until now. In the near future the natural resources will be the scarce factor of production and this means a complete change for the traditional economics concepts.
The overexploitation of the resources and the contamination of the environment are the causes of the situation.
Only the development of new sources of energy less contaminants, the massive construction of green cars and a policy of reforestation and conservation of the forests that still survive might diminish the impact of the problem. But it is necessary a global effort.
www.pablorafaelgonzalez.com
miércoles, 13 de mayo de 2009
Oil price might surpass $ 500 for the year 2012
The oil price might surpass the barrier of $ 500 for the year 2012. For that year the United Kingdom reserves of the North Sea will be in it final stage.
This fact will cause a revolution in the world energy and will show the weakness of our natural resources.
The appreciation on the oil price has a base: the historical behavior of the prices. For example, for the year 1970 the oil price was of hardly more of $ 1 per barrel, but ten years after, in the year 1980, the oil price reached the figure of $ 40. This represented an augment of more of 3,000 per cent in a period of ten years. The prices experimented a sustained trend to the increase in those ten years, but an event, the Sha of Iran fall in the year 1979, accelerated the crisis and the oil price reached in 1980 it major level in the history until then.
If we consider the year 2002 ---after September 11 2002--- as the year of minor prices of the oil ---$ 16 per barrel in December of that year--- and we consider a growth of 3,000 percent for the year 2012, the estimation of a price of $500 has a real sense. Remember that a similar phenomenon already happened between the years 1970 and 1980 as was explained in the previous paragraph.
Nobody can predict the future with precision but the lessons of the history are a true source of knowledgment. The history teaches us that a great jump might occur in the oil price if a fact sufficiently important happens in the market. The figures of the world oil reserves demonstrate that is in the North Sea the place where the oil will finish first. The most important oil companies of the world are aware of this fact, some governments too but they do not recognize it in public form.
A jump in the oil prices of the magnitude considered would cause a real economic crisis with severe implications in the goods and services production worldwide.
The book A Statistical Yearbook 2008, Running Out: How Global Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, (Algora Publishing, New York, 2008) presents a complete vision of the natural resources situation and especially of the petroleum.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
This fact will cause a revolution in the world energy and will show the weakness of our natural resources.
The appreciation on the oil price has a base: the historical behavior of the prices. For example, for the year 1970 the oil price was of hardly more of $ 1 per barrel, but ten years after, in the year 1980, the oil price reached the figure of $ 40. This represented an augment of more of 3,000 per cent in a period of ten years. The prices experimented a sustained trend to the increase in those ten years, but an event, the Sha of Iran fall in the year 1979, accelerated the crisis and the oil price reached in 1980 it major level in the history until then.
If we consider the year 2002 ---after September 11 2002--- as the year of minor prices of the oil ---$ 16 per barrel in December of that year--- and we consider a growth of 3,000 percent for the year 2012, the estimation of a price of $500 has a real sense. Remember that a similar phenomenon already happened between the years 1970 and 1980 as was explained in the previous paragraph.
Nobody can predict the future with precision but the lessons of the history are a true source of knowledgment. The history teaches us that a great jump might occur in the oil price if a fact sufficiently important happens in the market. The figures of the world oil reserves demonstrate that is in the North Sea the place where the oil will finish first. The most important oil companies of the world are aware of this fact, some governments too but they do not recognize it in public form.
A jump in the oil prices of the magnitude considered would cause a real economic crisis with severe implications in the goods and services production worldwide.
The book A Statistical Yearbook 2008, Running Out: How Global Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, (Algora Publishing, New York, 2008) presents a complete vision of the natural resources situation and especially of the petroleum.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
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