The natural resources will be the cause of the peace or the war in the 21st century

The most important politics and economic issue of the 21st century is the problem of the natural resources availability. This will be the cause of the peace or the war, the cause of the economic progress or of the recession in the coming years.

In the last years the world has seen diverse politics and economics problems in the first place of the scenario but in the heart of those problems the natural resources were the main cause.

The weakness of the dollar front the Euro and other currencies, the real state crisis in the United States, the financial fallout and the recession in the United States, the confrontation between Iran and the western countries, the agreement between North Korea and its neighbours on the nuclear program, the civil war in Iraq, the confrontation between the United States and Russia by the missiles base in Yugoslavia, the climatic change and the global warming, they are different situations but with a common origin: the natural resources crisis.

The weakness of the dollar front the Euro and other currencies born in the balance of payment deficit of the United States as consequence, among other causes, of the growing imports of oil. The recession in the US was a consequence too of two important facts: a) the banker’s avarice and b) the oil price rise in the year 2008, vital commodity that impacts the rest of the prices in the productive chain.

The confrontation between the Western countries and Iran is also an energetic confrontation because Iran is the owner of one of the most important petroleum reserves and everyday move away from the western countries. This fact put in danger the oil supply to the rest of the world. On October 17 2007, the President of The United States, George Bush, declared that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon the humanity will face the Third World War.

The North Korea nuclear threat had as main cause the lack of petroleum and food in that country and the cessation of hostilities between the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and North Korea, were supported in an agreement signed on February 2007 for given petroleum and food to this last country.

The civil war in Iraq was a consequence too of a problem of natural resources. The United States invaded Iraq for to assure the petroleum reserves of this country. That is the true.

The confrontation between Russia and the United States by the missiles base in Yugoslavia had as principal cause the struggle by the influence in the Middle East, and since the practice point of view this mean the influence over the oil sources of the region. Russia is diminishing in an accelerated form their petroleum.

The other international key issues, the climatic change and the global warming, is too a problem of natural resources, because of the effects of these phenomenon on the global environment and the global production of goods and services.

Climate Change affects the food production

I would like to write good news ever. But when you analyze the human behavior sometimes this is not possible; specially, when you consider the human being attitude regarding the natural resources conservation.
Man is a depredator of nature. He has a trend to destroy the wealth given by God to humanity.
Two hundred ten years ago, in 1798, a brilliant priest and economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, (1766-1834), in his Essay on the Principle of Population said that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.”
Malthus could not imagine that two centuries after the Climate Change would confirm his theory. Malthus did not know the Climate Change. The Pre Industrial civilization ---the Second Industrial Revolution began at the middle of the XIX century--- was a green and not contaminated world.
But now, almost 210 years after, the facts are confirming that the possibility of producing food for feeding the growing world population is every day less. The Global Warming is affecting the sources of water worldwide. Without water the agriculture development is not possible and the true is that every day the availability of this resource is diminishing in the world.
The World Bank in its World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate Change, warns that “the developing countries would be the most vulnerable by the Climate Change, with permanent reductions in GDP of 4 to 5 per cent for Africa and South Asia.” In the Foreword of the same Report, the President of the Bank, Robert Zoellick assures that “it is crucial that countries reach a Climate Agreement in December in Copenhagen that integrates development needs with climate actions.”
To adopt the measures for resolve the problem of the Climate Change and its consequences is something essential to guarantee the world surviving especially, the future of our sons, grandsons and the next generations.

Diminishing the CO2 emissions is the great challenge

If the humanity is not able of reducing the dioxide of carbon emissions in too few years a good part of the Earth will become a desert.
The scientists has enough explained the negative effects of the fossil energies use. One of the most important is the glaciers melting worldwide. Already we know the disastrous effects caused by the global warming in the Arctic, in the Antarctic and in the Himalaya Glaciers that nurture the principal rivers of Asia. The same happen in the Andes Glaciers in Latin America.
Practically an important part of those glaciers are quickly disappearing. As consequence of that process, already cities as La Paz, the Bolivia’s capital, is seriously threatened by the lack of water. A similar phenomenon is happening in other regions of the Andes.
Other consequence is the level of the seas augment. The coastal regions worldwide are too threatened by the global warming.
Moreover of the fossil fuel emissions, humanity is affected by other great problem: the forests fire. The last week of August 2009 ---through the international news agencies--we could appreciate the destruction caused in Greece and in California in the United States. But there are too many similar situations ---not reported by the news agencies---in other regions of the world, especially in the Amazonia Region, in Africa and Asia. The struggle against the forests fire should be other important objective of the national governments policies and of the international institutions as United Nations.
The other political necessary measure are the development of new sources of clean energy, to preserve the forests that still survive, to develop a global campaign of reforestation and to save the sources of water, avoiding their contamination.
Pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com