An important contribution to the human wellbeing, a thesis on the dairy sector of the University Federico II

In a world where the food is everyday more scarce and expensive, the initiatives for improvement the quantity and quality of the food production are something essential.
In the recent past years the food prices reached unbelievable figures. The price reflects the situation of a good in the market, its scarcity or abundance, so that the high level of the food prices reveals the vulnerability of the food production, distribution and marketing.
The damage to the environment is the other key element; one of the most serious consequences of the abuse against the environment is the reduction of the sources of water worldwide. Without water the food production is not possible.
The limitations to the food production is then a reality; for that reason one of the most important objectives of the scientific and technological research should be to carry out new methods to strengthen the food production since a qualitative and quantitative point of view.
The projections of the population growth for the coming years represent a true challenge. In that scenario, the production of cereals is and will be something essential but the production of proteins will be also very important. The dairy industry is one of the main sources of proteins and an effective road to tackle the problem of the poverty and the undernourishment now and in the near future. Hence, the scientific and technological research for improvement the dairy sector deserves be considered like a valuable contribution to the world wellbeing.
The universities that stimulate this type of research give an important support to the human development. Recently I read an interesting thesis for the improvement of the dairy sector; the author of the thesis is Dr. Paola Zinno, of the University Federico II of Naples, Italy. I think that this kind of works is important for the development and progress of humanity. The reading of that thesis of Dr. Paola Zinno motivated me to write these reflections.

Philosophy of science, economy and environment

Index
1. What is science?
2. Basic characteristic of nature
3. Basic characteristic of science
4. What is technology?
5. Difference between philosophy, science and technology
6. The main objective of science
7. Appearance and reality
8. The scientific method
9. From where does the inspiration come?
10. The attraction for the abstraction
11. Economics is a branch of politics
12. The objective reality
13. Idealism and materialism
14. The contradiction created by the scientific and technological development
15. Conclusion
Introduction
The most important objective of the learning process is to ensure the comprehension of the matter studied. The first step in that sense is the clarity of the explanation, the clarity of the ideas that are exposed.
It is the comprehension of the ideas that allow the student to apply what’s learned into a practice sense and transform that knowledge into new knowledge. That is the base of the success at research and the innovation.
The great fail of the educative process is to obligate students to repeat ideas, remember rigid concepts, formulas and other knowledge’s that in the majority of the cases are not used in the reality of the life.
The world would be better, with less poverty and unhappiness if the education would be different. The philosophy of science might contribute to find new roads to knowledge and the education; hence the philosophy of science is important.
In the next paragraphs we will answer some important questions about the matter.
1. What is science?
Science is the study of the reality of nature.
2. Basic characteristic of nature
Nature is an integral system of exact laws that determine the behavior of the Universe and life at all the times.
3. Basic characteristic of science
The basic characteristic of science is its exactitude and validity at all times.
The laws of nature integrate a complex system of exact cycles of changes; it is a predictable system, this means that you can anticipate its behavior. The system does not change in its essence; what changes is our knowledge of it; hence our perception of science is in constant evolution; but the laws and principles of nature are permanent, immutable.
4. What is technology?
Technology is the practice application of the principles and discoveries of science for the development of new material things.
5. Difference between philosophy, science and technology
Philosophy studies the first causes, the origin of life and knowledge.
Science studies nature and its laws.
Technology creates material things in the base of knowledge that is obtained from science.
6. The main objective of science
The main objective of science is to discover the hidden reality of nature.
Two realities exist: the observable and the hidden reality. You can appreciate at simple view the observable reality, for example, trees, sun, moon, but you cannot appreciate at simple view the hidden reality, for example, atoms.
7. Appearance and reality
The world seems flat and still but it is in fact round and rotates. One thing is the appearance of the things and other different its reality. To discover the truth of things beyond appearance is the purpose of science.
8. The scientific method
The basic steps of the scientific method are: a) the observation of reality, b) research about that reality and c) the elaboration of the hypothesis.
9. From where does the inspiration come?
If those are the basic steps of the scientific method two key questions arise as a consequence:
a) How can man know something that he has never observed? and
b) From where does the inspiration to know the unknown come?
In Prehistory man made the principal discoveries that we today know, among them instruments of stones, hunting, fire, road, fishing, agriculture, metals, tools, textiles and architecture. But it was in the 18th century when began the most intense process of knowledge development with the discovery of new forms of energy, vapor and its applications to the mechanic and, later, in the 19th and 20th centuries petroleum, electricity and atomic energy. Since the 18th century until now the speed of scientific discoveries has reached unthinkable levels.
What leads man to discover new things?
Has he innate ideas that are responsible for the creative process?
If it is so then from where do those innate ideas come?
10. The attraction for the abstraction
Man has a natural trend toward abstraction. Perhaps it is a form of escaping of hard reality. Hence he creates ideal scenarios not possible in the practice of life. In the disciplines of the social sciences this trend is very intense.
The social sciences support a good part of its postulates in abstractions. It is easier conceiving an abstraction than a concrete and real idea ascertainable and applicable in the reality.
The reality, the practice, is the purgatory where the conceptions of the ideal word are tested.
The economy is one of the disciplines with a major charge of abstractions and ideal conceptions.
11. Economics is a branch of politics
The economy is not a science in the strictest sense of the word science.
Why?
This is because the economic postulates are not exact laws of universal validity at all the times.
The economy is a branch of the politics.
Why?
It is because the main economic decisions ---economic policies--- are adopted by governments in all societies and in all types of political regimes.
The market, the supply, demand and prices are influenced by governments in a decisive form.
Two economies exist: the true economy and the academic economy.
The true economy is the economy of reality. The academic economy focuses its attention on the theorist and ideal aspects of the discipline, that in many cases are very far from reality.
The same occurs with other disciplines like law. Practice law of the courts is completely different to theorist and academic law. One thing is the theorist and other different the practice. This presents to us another key question:
What is true and what not?
12. The objective reality
An objective reality exists in nature but it is not appreciated ever by our senses. The truth of nature is not relative neither ambiguous; what is relative is our knowledge.
The appreciation of reality depends on our analytic capacity and, even, on the place from where you see. For example, your vision from a helicopter is completely different of your vision from a street of a city where there are big buildings. A rich banker and a poor person have each one of them different opinions on the economic process.
Knowledge is in constant change as consequence of the advances and development of our thought. The capacity of our thought is infinite; hence our creative capacity is also infinite.
The conceptions considered so far true might in the future not be certain; in the history of the human knowledge this has happened already; for example, over centuries the intellectual elite of the world believed that the Earth was flat. A practical demonstration was necessary to ascertain the contrary; that demonstration was the circumvallation of the Earth by Juan Sebastian Elcano (1476-1526).
Practice is the essential way to ascertain the truth. Thought is not enough; thought must be accompanied of the practice.
13. Idealism and Materialism
To reach knowledge it is necessary to develop a synthesis between theorist and practice.
The Idealism, alone, cannot explain the truth of things; practice, alone, can neither enhance the knowledge.
14. The contradiction created by the scientific and technological development
The scientific and technological development brought great advances but, in turn, new situations that were not previously known. The main contradiction has been the damage to the environment.
The great change in the life of the world was promoted by science through the discovery of new sources of energy: vapor, petroleum, electricity and later nuclear energy. Those sources of energy are a very important cause of pollution everyday worldwide. A clear example in that sense was the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that began on April 20 2010 until July 15 2010, almost three months pouring millions of gallons of petroleum in the sea. Similar situations of minor scale occur every day in the world with forests, rivers and all the expressions of nature.
15. Conclusion
- The philosophy of science explains why, for what and the laws that govern the science.
- The main objective of the science is to discover the hidden reality of nature.
- In the reality, in the practice, the economy is not an autonomous discipline but a branch of the politics.
- The scientific and technological development has created, in turn, a new situation: the environment damage. Nevertheless, the science and technology has the duty of finding the ways for diminishing and, in many cases, to avoid that damage that is one of the most important challenges of the 21st century.

Abstract ideas, economic reality and philosophy of the science

Index
1. Two different systems of thought
2. Difference between scientific knowledge and intuitive knowledge
3. A review of the social sciences concept
4. Origin of the philosophy and science advance
5. Theory of the knowledge, how do we know?
6. The two hemispheres of the brain
7. Philosophical base of the economic knowledge
8. Abstract ideas and economic reality
9. The economy and the mathematics
10. The Philosophy of the science
11. Conclusion
Introduction
It is necessary to say that one thing is the philosophy and other different is the religion. One and other should not be confused. The philosophy encompasses the essential affairs of the religion but not vice verse; the religion do not encompasses the essential affairs of the philosophy.
1. Two different systems of thought
When in the western world the people think in the word philosophy, immediately the word is associated to the great thinkers like Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Descartes, Kant, Hegel and others.
In the western world the people usually forget that exist other important philosophical conception which has dominated a good part of the world. That philosophy is the Confucianism, adopted as the official ideology of China in the year 136 BC until the beginning of the 20th century.
Confucianism represents an ideal approach, an especial manner of tackle basic affairs of the life. It recognizes the ontological dimension, the existence of God, the being and the abstract entities by a side and, also, the epistemological dimension, this mean the different forms of understanding or theory of the knowledge, but those two great issues did not constitute the principal object of their attention.
Confucius (551 BC- 479 BC) that is the most important figure of the eastern philosophy concentrated his attention in two great affairs: a) The duties of the statesmen and b) The main values of the human beings. His philosophy was a philosophy referred to the reality of the life, to the here and now and not a reflection about the eternity.
Confucius spoke about the clarity of the ideas as the essential condition of the philosophy and the knowledge. A similar idea was expressed hundred of years after by the apostle Pablo, when assured that the most important is the comprehension of the doctrine. Indeed, this comprehension can be achieved only by mean of the clarity of the ideas. The western philosophy did not give importance to that concept. Hence, to understand the western philosophy has been ever a difficult task.
The western philosophy concentrated its effort in the study of the being, the study of why and for what do we exist, the live after the death, the existence of a superior being, God, and the laws that govern our thoughts or theory of the knowledge. Albeit Confucianism does not explain the previous mentioned great affairs, it has been a strong moral force that has influenced a good part of the world population. Philosophically, the Confucianism might be considered a Rationalist conception; this is a creation of the reason and the feelings. In change, the western philosophy is a complex system of thought integrated, in turn, by different sub-systems of analysis. Over that complex structure of thought has been built the western system of philosophy and science.
This reflection and comparison between the eastern philosophy and the western philosophy is important because it complements and gives the real idea of the world, the idea of its integrality. So we do not see only a part but the global conception.
2. Difference between scientific knowledge and intuitive knowledge
The scientific knowledge research and explains in systematic, logic, rational and permanent form the essence of the things and the relation existent between them. The intuitive knowledge is the natural wisdom that all the human beings possess. Some philosophers consider that that is the highly grade of knowledge.
3. A review of the social sciences concept
The concept of science gives the idea of precision, regularity and permanent action.
The scientific truth is a constant truth that do not change in the time: the Earth rotation movement occur each 24 hours, the movement of translation each 365 days. It is a truth that may be verified in any moment.
It do not occur the same with the social sciences, which postulates are temporal and relatives; this is the negation of the basic principle of the science: their validity in the time. So that speak about social sciences do not respond exactly to the orthodox concept of science that mean precision and stability along the time.
4. Origin of the philosophy and science advance
The creative minds are the driving force of the philosophy and science advance.
In his work, Philosophic table of successive progress of the human spirit (1750), the French philosopher Anne-Robert- Jacques Turgot (1727-1781) spoke about the existence of spirits to whom the nature give a great memory able of accumulate a big amount of knowledge’s and the capacity for compare and order those knowledge’s. But the same nature usually denies to those minds the genius for invent and to open new roads. They are brilliants, but brilliants that do not shine with own light but with borrowed light, he said.
Turgot thought that that kind of minds makes a very important work but they do not change the things, they keep the establishment. On the contrary, in a minor proportion it exist the creative minds; they are who change the world.
5. Theory of the knowledge, how do we know?
The objective of the philosophy is the knowledge of the reality as a whole; in a general sense, the objective of the science is the knowledge of the different parts that encompasses the reality. Each one of those parts integrates the specific sciences.
The human knowledge has its origin in two essential forms: a) the ideas and b) the practice, the experience.
The philosophers named the first form of knowledge Rationalism and the second one Empiricism.
The Rationalism believe that the knowledge come from the reason, from our thought and intelligence. The main first exponents of this trend were Plato (427 BC- 348 BC) and Saint Augustine (354-430).
Plato thought that the world of the experience is in constant change and hence it can not give us a true wisdom. The senses can not lead us toward the knowledge, he said. He explained that there is a supra sensible world where our conscience obtain knowledge; that supra sensible world is the world of the ideas.
The other great leader of the Rationalism, Saint Augustine, preached that the trues and supreme concepts are irradiated by God to our spirits. He believed that the knowledge come from the human reason or from the divine illumination. His conception is known as Theology of Rationalism or Theory of the Divine Illumination.
In the Modern Age, the philosopher Rene Descartes (1596-1650) developed the Theory of the Innate Ideas. He assured that moreover of our experience we have innate ideas that are an original patrimony of the reason. Those ideas represent a basic source of our knowledge. The philosopher Amadeus Leibniz (1646-1716), continued and improved the work of Descartes. Other rationalists were Baruch Spinoza (1632-1677), Emmanuel Kant (1724-1804) and George Frederic Hegel (1770-1831).
The Rationalism found a solid point of support in the mathematical knowledge. Indeed, the mathematics is a conceptual and deductive knowledge which origin is our creative capacity, our imagination. Who has seen, tasted, touched, felt or smelt a point, a number, a geometric figure? Why one is one and not two or eight? Why a point is a point and not a triangle? What really is a number, a point or a triangle? Those are concepts created by the rationality our minds. The time and the space are too mathematical dimensions created by our minds. The mathematics is the unique exact science based exclusively in the creations of our thoughts, in our capacity of abstraction.
The Empiricism point out the contrary thesis of the Rationalism, this is that the source of the human knowledge is the experience. The defenders of this thesis were Francis Bacon (1561-1626), John Locke (1632-1704), George Berkeley (1685-1753), David Hume (1711-1776) and John Stuart Mill (1806-1873).
John Locke was the principal figure of the English Empiricism; he combated the theory of the innate ideas of Descartes and assured that all our knowledge’s are acquired by mean of the experience, by mean of our five senses or the internal sense of reflection; this internal sense let man create the abstract ideas. But that conception of Descartes, the doctrine of the abstract ideas, was rejected by other important philosopher of that time, George Berkeley, who assured that that doctrine do not reflect the reality of the things. In the 19th century, other philosopher, John Stuart Mill, would assume a most radical position. Mill said that until the mathematical knowledge come from the experience. He wrote the logic of the Empiricism and the induction.
A synthesis of the two mentioned contradictory theories ---Rationalism and Empiricism--- was developed by other philosophers. The Intellectualism was the first synthesis and his principal exponent was Aristotle, in opposition to his teacher Plato; after, in the Middle Age, Saint Thomas of Aquino (1225-1274) followed the same way. The Intellectualism consider that the human knowledge come from the reason and the experience.
Emmanuel Kant (1724-1804) developed a similar theory about the knowledge; he recognized the paper of the reason and the experience but he said that we have empiric knowledge in our minds, an a priori knowledge, it means previous to the experience. This Kant’s position is known in the philosophy as Aprioristic Theory.

6. The two hemispheres of the brain
It is important to say, moreover, that at middle of the 18th century the psychiatry, and the psychology after, began to speak about the two hemispheres of the brain.
Since then the researchers has discovered that the left hemisphere is responsible of the reason, the logic, the organization and the verbal communication, among other
capacities, while the right hemisphere is responsible of the emotions, the intuition, the creativity and the gestural communication.
In the western world our education has made emphasis in the abilities that the left
hemisphere give to us. This explain the preference by careers linked to the mathematics as engineering, informatics, the social sciences and the lesser interest in the research and the innovation.
I asked to a recognized psychologist, Doctor Luigi Alberti, his opinion and this was his answer:
The two hemispheres of our brain are like the two wings of a bird; if our education
emphasize the development of one wing then the flight will be irregular, not
harmonious.
We must learn to have two good wings, but for achieving that goal we need to develop
our right hemisphere, he said.
The conclusion is that that recommendation should be an important objective of the
modern education.
Doctor Luigi Alberti remember that thousands of years ago, the Mexican Toltecas Indians spoke about the two sides of the human body; they assured that the left
side was linked to the present, the live, the here and now while the right side was linked to the unexplainable, the intuition, the Gods, a similar concept like the expressed by the modern psychology.
Coincidence?, Innate ideas?, Aprioristic ideas?, What do you think?
7. Philosophical base of the economic knowledge
The economic knowledge is an outcome of the world of the ideas albeit it must be recognized that the human beings have a natural practice economic awareness, an innate knowledge of the economy.
We can say then that, historically, the Rationalism has been the support of the economic knowledge. This means that the economic knowledge has been based, essentially, in the ideas of their creators.
8. Abstract ideas and economic reality
One of the basic postulates of the economy is the existence of the market; this conceived not as a concrete place where coincide producers, sellers and buyers with total freedom for making economic transactions, but a conceptual creation of the human reason for explaining the economic behavior ---supply and demand--- of the individual people and its social organizations. It is then, an intellectual conception.
The mind of the economists created the laws of the market, the law of supply and the law of demand. As a result of that invention appeared the third key element: the price.
But the market is not an aseptic institution influenced only by the laws of the supply, the demand and the prices, no, there is a fourth decisive factor that determine in last instance the behavior of the market: that decisive factor is the State, in all the political regimes, even in the extreme capitalist societies.
From the Rationalist method of analysis the economy obtained the abstract idea of the market, the perfect competition and the use of the mathematics to explain some economics issues.
An abstract idea might coincide or not with something practice. One thing is the ideas and other completely different may be the reality. This occurs clearly in the economy. For example, in the economy of the common life the perfect competition does not exist. This concept is a fiction of the mind. Notwithstanding, the economic science was founded taking that idea as one of its principal concepts.
John Stuart Mill in his Principles of Political Economy with some of their applications to social philosophy, book II, chapter II (1848) make an important reflection on the competition that deserve to be quoted; this is:
Of Competition and Custom

“1. Under the rule of individual property, the division of the produce is the result of two determining agencies: Competition, and Custom. It is important to ascertain the amount of influence which belongs to each of these causes, and in what manner the operation of one is modified by the other.
Political economists generally, and English political economists above others, have been accustomed to lay almost exclusive stress upon the first of these agencies; to exaggerate the effect of competition, and to take into little account the other and conflicting principle. They are apt to express themselves as if they thought that competition actually does, in all cases, whatever it can be shown to be the tendency of competition to do. This is partly intelligible, if we consider that only through the principle of competition has political economy any pretension to the character of a science. So far as rents, profits, wages, prices, are determined by competition, laws may be assigned for them. Assume competition to be their exclusive regulator, and principles of broad generality and scientific precision may be laid down, according to which they will be regulated.” End of the quote.
In the paragraph may be observed how John Stuart Mill doubts about the character of science given to the economy and how the principle of competition is one of the most important concepts employed by the founders of the economy.
In the economy of the diary life the decisive factor is the state and not the market. The state decides the key economical issues in all the political systems. First of all it decides what kind of economical regime will be applied in the society: free or regulated market. But the same decision regarding the free market is a form of interventionism because the state can resolve the contrary.
In the most radical societies of free market the state determines, moreover, the other basic aspects of the economy: the monetary policy, the financial policy and, in consequence, the interest rates, the commercial policy, the imports and exports and the rest of the essential economic affairs.
The merchants and bankers this true realize perfectly and for that reason they has invented ways for influence the politics and the statesmen. Nonetheless, the true power of the market is in the hands of the statesmen. This is a proof more that the abstract idea of the market and the competition does not correspond to the reality of the things.
The economic freedom is an abstract idea, a fiction of the mind because the real behavior of the economy is decided by the politics, the states, the statesmen through the legal systems of the countries. The statesmen make the laws, all the laws, including the economics laws.
9. The economy and the mathematics
The preference by the use of the mathematics confirms the Rationalist trend of the economy.
One of the pioneers intends for using the mathematics to support the economical knowledge was made by William Petty (1623-1687). His Political Arithmetic was written in 1676 but was published in the year 1690 after his dead. Petty is one of the most important figures of the economy. In a concept of his book he express that one of his most important objectives was to express his opinions in terms of exact magnitudes, in terms of numbers, weight and measurement. He thought that the economic reality might be represented through the mathematics.
82 years after, Francoise Quesnay, principal exponent of the Physiocratic school, published his Tableu Economique (1758), which constitute an important step toward the employ of the mathematics in the economy.
The Tableu Economique was a system where was presented the annual total production of a country and the resources needed for the reposition of those resources each year.
Those two experiments, the work of Petty and the work of Quesnay, were the base for the development of the econometrics in the 20th century, from the hand of Alfred Marshall (1842-1924), who separated the economy of the politics and created the modern economics, based, in a good part, in the mathematics.
The mentioned facts confirm the Rationalist trend of the economy. Why?
Because the mathematics is a science that has been created by our reason, our thought, as already was said in previous paragraphs, but it is important to repeat it for a best comprehension of the idea.
10. The philosophy of the science
The philosophy encompasses the totality of the knowledge. The science as a whole is a part of the philosophy and the special sciences, the particular sciences, a restricted portion of the global science; in consequence, an expression of the philosophical knowledge.
The philosophy of the global science and of the particular sciences has the same objective of the philosophy.
Which are those objectives?
The objectives are to discover the reality of the world and the universe, this mean to understand the laws that govern that reality and the relations between each one of the parts that integrate that reality.
The philosophy of the science might be more useful and to adapt their action to the true needs of the humankind. It should give the analytical support for the development of the knowledge to enhance the quality of live of the people. The first lesson that the philosophy of the science should give to the world is to teach the love for the Earth and to love the life.
The life is a miracle. God has given to man the ability for realize a part of that miracle but not the license to destroy it.
Man has advanced very far in the way of the destruction. The atomic weapons are able of to disappear the Earth. But now he wants to intensify the destruction affecting directly the creation of the life through the new experiments in the biology.
God is the unique creator; man should not create artificially the life. The philosophy of the science should help man to understand this true.
Man can reach more advances in the medicine, defeat the illnesses’ and to extend the longevity; but, for achieving those goals, first of all he need to reduce the poverty and to develop a global program of demographic restriction in the developing countries. This is the other great knowledge that the philosophy of the science should teach us now.
The population growth is the most important issue that the humankind will face in the coming years. The natural resources scarcity, especially the water stress and the contamination reduce the possibilities of the Earth for producing the food that the high population growth requires. To spread that knowledge should be other important task of the philosophy of the science.
The great challenge of the future will be producing food and to distribute that food. It is something unfair and unbelievable that while million of people are undernourished and thousands of children die by hungry, millions of tons of food stay in the granaries of the big producers, waiting by an increase of prices.
Other great need of the world is to moderate the extremist mercantilist conception of the medicine and the health; for example, the science might find the cure and to reduce the morbidity of many illnesses, but for reaching that goal it is necessary to see the medicine and the health not only as a business but like a scientist and moral duty of helping our neighbors.
Finally, it is necessary to underline the need of preserve the nature and the environment. Man should find ways for reducing the contamination of the land, the air, the rivers, the oceans. Currently ---May and June 2010--- the world is facing one of the most ecological disasters by a big oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. This kind of mistakes should not continue in the future.
Man should protect the forests and develop a global program of reforestation; that is the unique way to keep the live at mid and long term. The philosophy of the science should help to the comprehension of all this reality.
Conclusion-
- It must not be confused philosophy and religion; they are different.
- The eastern philosophy ---Confucianism--- represent a scale of values that deserve be known by the western world.
- There is a key concept of Confucius: the clearity of the ideas, as essential condition of the philosophy and the knowledge. The western philosophy does not practice that concept.
- The social sciences do not comply with the basic principle of the science: their validity through the time because the social sciences are in permanent change.
- The creative minds are the driving force of the science progress.
- Our education should make more emphasis in the research, the development of the creative capacity and the innovation.
- The economic knowledge is a rationalist knowledge, an outcome of the world of the ideas.
- The economy has stressed abstract concepts, fictions that do not exist in the reality.
- The preference by the use of the mathematics confirms the rationalist trend of the economy.
- The philosophy of the science might be more useful and adapt their action to the true needs of the humankind. There are essential issues like the preservation of the forests and the development of a global campaign of reforestation; that is the unique way of to keep the planet. The other essential measure is to develop a global program of demographic control because the overpopulation is and will be the gravest problem of the world at mid and long term. The other great problems: poverty and contamination are a consequence of the overpopulation, this mean the lack or scarcity of resources for attending the human needs.
What do you think?

Political economy food and demographic control

Traditionally, the power of the countries has been associated to the size of their population.
Power and population has been synonymous; but with the development of the science and technology that perception has changed.
Now, the synonymous of power is the scientist knowledge domain; the atomic weapons were the main cause of that transformation.
In the past, the military force was determined by the number of soldiers’ and the conventional weapons; now, the military supremacy is decided by the possession of nuclear weapons.
The atomic experience caused a great impact in the world. The nuclear powers learned the lessons of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. In the following decades the great nuclear countries participated in new war scenarios ---Korea, Vietnam and Middle East--- but in none case they used the atomic energy.
The military power and the economic power are strongly tied. Without economic development the military power is not possible.
In turn, the economic development is related to the size and purchase capacity of the market ---population--- and other key issues like the availability or not of factors of production and their appropriate use.
Since the theorist point of view, each one of the factors of production ---capital, land and work--- has the same hierarchy. None of them is more important than other. But, in the 21st century reality, the natural resources (land) have acquired a special paper; the reason? Because of signs of scarcity and contamination are already visible in many regions of the world especially in the agriculture sector in matter of water and land.
A similar perspective occur regarding the other forms of energy, like the petroleum, because the reserves are draining in specific areas, among them, the North Sea, the United States, Mexico and China. Hence, a constant increase of the petroleum price is very possible.
The agriculture is the basic form of energy because it provides the food that feed our lives. The food is energy. Now, in the modern world, the petroleum is a basic input for the agriculture because it determines the crops yield by mean of the fertilizers and supply the combustible that move all the machinery, among other basic inputs of the productive chain. So that any increase in the petroleum price touch directly the agriculture costs. The mentioned facts exert a significant impact on the possibilities of the agriculture expansion and the food production at mid and long term.
Demographic control
The other important issue is the population growth. According with the FAO projections, the most augment will occur in the developing countries. In change, the minor growth will be in the industrial nations, because of the demographic transition phenomenon, which mean a high rate of longevity and a small birthrate. If this phenomenon augments in the coming years, the industrial countries will suffer a process of deep cultural change since that new migratory flows sure will transform the custom of those societies. The influence of the migratory groups already is evident in the industrial countries like the United States and in Europe. This will provoke a change in the politics and the economy not only of the recipient countries but in the rest of the world. This is a subject that deserve be considered in a complete work.
The effect of the population growth on the food production will be one of the most important issues for humanity in the coming years.
There are three options to satisfy the growing food population needs: a) to increase the production, b) to reduce the population growth or c) both.
The restrictions that affect the agriculture expansion are well known like the land scarcity, the water stress, the contamination and the inflation in the energy prices; so that the demographic control might be an alternative to tackle the reality.
The demographic control is the action adopted by the states through their policies of population for regulating ---increase or diminish--- the birthrates in a country or region. The objective of the demographic control is to determine the population size at mid and long term.
There are successful cases of demographic control; China, for example, diminished their birthrates in the 20th century notwithstanding to be the most populated country of the world. Other overpopulated nation, like India, has employed too the demographic control to lessen their birthrate. Where the situation is out of control is in Africa.
In other moments of the history, like in the thirty and forty decades of the 20th century, leaders as Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler used the demographic control to stimulate the birthrate in its countries. They promoted the marriages and for each son the government gave a reward to the parents. The objective of those governments was to increase the number of soldiers for the war.
The mentioned examples demonstrate that the demographic control has been used in two contradictory directions: by a side to enhance and by the other to restrict the birthrate, according to the population policies of the countries.
A fact that must be mentioned is that the demographic control was employed principally by autocratic governments in the 20th century; but it does not mean that it is a mechanism proper of that kind of regimes, no, the demographic control is an instrument of the policy of population that may be used the same by the democratic regimes and other type of governments.
Unsustainable
The true problem is the global high rate of population augment of the last century ---the most in the history--- and their projection, a trend that will be unsustainable for the limited resources of the Earth at mid and long term. Only the technology might help to curb the consequences of the overpopulation improving the methods of production and distribution of goods and services.
In the thirty years between 1970 and 2000, the world population increase was of 64.43 per cent; the developing countries augment of 81.75 per cent and the industrial countries growth rate 24.48 percent.

The international agencies, like FAO, assure that the population growth of the thirty years between the year 2000 and 2030 will be the half of the average observed in the last three decades between the year 1970 and 2000. They do not explain which the reasons are for suppose that the historical behavior will change. The projection for the year 2030 is 2,059 million of inhabitants more regarding the year 2000, as may be appreciated in the following table.

The foreseen total population increase for the year 2030 is a big amount, approximately the third part of the current global total; it mean that will be necessary producing the food that the new population will need. This requires more land and more water, including a most exploitation of the oceans resources and more petroleum and coal. In turn, this implies more contamination. How conciliate all these situations is the key question.
Conclusion
The political economy and the technology might supply the theorist and practice support to tackle basic issues like the production increase and the struggle against the poverty to face the future high population growth. But the demography must play a privileged paper. The demographic control to diminish the birthrate in the developing countries will be something necessary. On the contrary, the birthrate increase will be fundamental for the industrial nations to reduce the impact of the demographic transition phenomenon, which threat to become those countries in societies of old people, societies of senior citizens condemned to disappear at long term. A balance between the population growth of the developing nations and the industrial nations is the fair.
Realistic policies of population should be developed by all the nations; this encompasses key issues like the policies of immigration and the policies of population distribution in the space, to favor the nature and the environment, among others.
What do you think?

Political economy, food and population projections

Is able the Earth of to double the food production in the coming years?
That is the key question that some politicians, researchers and people linked to the agriculture have made themselves in the last months; the reason? An announcement made by the FAO food chief, Jacques Diouf on January 26 2009 during an international conference on food security in Madrid.
Jacques Diouf said that “…We face the challenge now of not only ensuring food for the 973 million who are currently hungry, but also ensuring there is food for nine billion people in 2050. We will need to double global food production by 2050…”
According with The Guardian of London in information of the journalist Juliette Jowit on April 19 2010, the Soil Association of the United Kingdom published a study with the title “The big fat lie about doubling food production,” where criticize the projection and assure that their origin is a FAO report of June 2006 entitled World Agriculture towards 2030/2050.
The Guardian informs that the Soil Association assures that “…The forecast increase needed in production would be closer to 70% by 2050…” and that “…The UK government has said that the difference between 100% and 70% is not trivial because it is more than the food production of the whole American continent…”
Nobody can predict the future with precision
I would like to comment an anecdote that I lived many years ago. In that time I was director of an area in the planning office of my country and helped a student to get a grant to study in one of the most advanced North Americans universities. I advised him to pay special attention to the planning subjects. One year after he came back and said to me: the studies have been excellent but I want to tell you something that perhaps will be disappointing. And he told me that one of his professors, a Nobel Laureate, said to him and to the rest of the pupils that the planning is possible only at short term, because the world change everyday to an unbelievable speed and for that reason is not possible to make plans at long term.
I did not forget the concept. In the following years I felt a great attraction by the philosophy and I could understand better what the professor wanted to express to his pupils. Indeed, the changes, sometimes radical and unexpected changes, are the essence of the live and they affect the possibilities of forecast at long term. It is true that there is a statistic reality, trends that we can to verify in the facts, but they are only tendencies that can change in any moment. I will give only one example in the following question:
Who could predict twenty years ago that twenty years after a young leader like Barack Obama would be the president of the United States?
The projections
The studies of the international agencies sometimes present contradictory information. The reason is, perhaps, that that information is gathered and interpreted by different people with different visions of a same phenomenon.
Observe you the three following paragraphs of the FAO document World Agriculture towards 2015/2030; the quotes belong to the Executive Summary:
“…There are three main sources of growth in crop production: expanding the land area, increasing the frequencies with which it is cropped (often through irrigation), and boosting yields. It has suggested that we may be approaching the ceiling of what is possible for all three sources…”
But in the same section says the following:
“…At global level there is adequate unused potential farmland. A comparison of soils, terrains and climates which the needs of major crops suggest that an extra 2.8 billion ha are suitable in varying degrees for the rain fed production on arable and permanent crops. This is almost twice as much as currently farmed. However, only a fraction of this extra land is realistically available for agricultural expansion in the foreseeable future, as much as needed to preserve forest cover and to support infrastructural development…”
And after it assure:
“…More than half the land that could be opened up is in just seven countries of tropical Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, whereas other regions and countries face a shortage of suitable land. In the Near East and North Africa, 87 percent of suitable land was already being farmed in 1977-99 while in South Asia the figure is no less than 94 per cent. In these regions, intensification through improved management and technologies will be the main, indeed virtually the only source of production growth. In many places land degradation threatens the productivity of existing farmland and pasture…” End of the quotes.
It is evident the contradiction between the first and third paragraphs and the second one.
Then the question is:
Is there or not enough water and expanding area for agricultural production?
The agricultural lands of Europe, Asia and part of Africa have been exploited by thousands of years and most of them are already exhausted; Egypt, for example, where the historians consider that the agriculture began. The lands of America have been also exploited but in less intensity and proportion; hence some of them are still a potential reserve.
The problem is that the agricultural exploitation means deforestation and a great damage to the environment. For example, since the sixty years of the 20th century ---before the region was closed for strangers--- the Amazon region has been destroyed, mainly, by the farmers, the lumberjacks and the miners. The great problem is that the Amazon area is vital for the environment sustainability of the planet. That is the last ecological reserve that survives in the world.
As a result of the expressed the other key question is:
Which are the tropical Latin American and Sub-Saharan seven countries that the FAO consider could be open to new developments in the agriculture?
How that development will affect the environment and the global sustainability?
Restricted possibilities
If you consider the reality of the planet presented by the own FAO, you will confirm that there are restricted possibilities of the agricultural expansion. The limitation in matter of land and water are a true. The FAO’s experts know and cope that true better than the rest of the world citizens but, perhaps, they can not recognize it publicly; notwithstanding, sometimes, in official papers as the quoted in the previous paragraphs, they do clear mention of that reality.
Why to hide the perspectives?
Everybody wait miracles in all the issues of the live. You expect your miracles I, the governments and the rest of the people too. Everybody wait a change, a good change. The hope of miracles feed the live of the people. Hence nobody want to see negative perspectives and anticipate measures for tackle them. Perhaps that would be an answer.
But to hide or to not recognize the true does not change the true. The governments and the international official agencies have the duty of to warn about the perspectives and to make the recommendations for a best future.
What is the most important?
The question that head this work is the most important:
Is able the Earth of to double the food production in the coming years?
The answer is in the hands of the scientists, the politicians, economists and the people linked to the agriculture: farmers and entrepreneurs, among others.
The true is that the world will need to increase the food production in an important amount to attend the growth population of the coming years. In this moment it does not matter if is 100 percent or 70 percent; the true is that any of them is an enormous quantity.
The perspectives of the world population are the base for the food estimations.

The FAO consider that the world population will reach the peak of 9 billion of inhabitants for the year 2050 and estimates that since that moment will not have growth at global level. In the Overview ---page 3--- of the World Agriculture towards 2030/2050, they explain the forecast of zero population growth for the year 2050 as “…the net result of continuing increases in some countries compensated by declines in others…”
But they assure after that “…zero population growth at global level will not automatically translate into zero growth in demand and cessation of building-up pressures on resources and the wider environment…”
Conclusion
The great problem is how to arrive to the year 2050; how to produce the food that the population will require, in a scenario of water shortage worldwide, overexploitation of the land and growing contamination.
First of all it is necessary to recognize and to say the true at the world.
It is necessary an integral effort of many sectors, among them, the science, the technology, the political economy, the demography, the politicians, the farmers and the entrepreneurs, for giving answers to those issues. The demographers have an especial responsibility. They must be listened by the political leaders and other researchers.
Which is your opinion?

Political economy, the first objective of the science and technology should be to conquer the Earth

In the last century man has obtained a great advance in science and technology; one of the best examples of that progress is the spatial career. Man is conquering the exterior space but, ironically, still he has not conquered the Earth.
On April 15, 2010 a report of BBC News signed by the journalist Jonathan Amos, assured that the President of the United States, Barack Obama, announced that “it should be possible to send astronauts to orbit the planet Mars by the mid-2030s and return them safely; a landing on Mars will follow…”
This announce reveals the great development reached until now by the science and technology but it is a good opportunity also for to reflect about the challenges that man has not resolved yet.
The first objective of the science and technology should be to conquer the Earth. There are four key fields where a most effort might be made:
1. Agriculture development.
2. Environment protection.
3. How conciliate the technology and the need of create new jobs.
4. Defeat of the illnesses.
Those are critical areas where the science and technology would help to improve the quality of live of the people, especially in the underdeveloped nations, where is concentrated the world population.
1. The agriculture development encompasses some basic tasks, like the followings:
a) To reduce the consumption of water because is in this productive sector where the consumption is most.
b) To increase the crops yields and the production of food.
c) To guarantee a best and fair distribution of the food production to benefit especially at the poorest and hunger population of the world.
2. The environment protection encompasses:
a) To reduce the desertification phenomenon and to preserve the forests.
b) How to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions especially in the coal and petroleum industry. In this sense the experience of Norway in their North Sea oil fields is very important because they have reduced their emissions of CO2 in 40 percent of the global average. That example might be considered by the industry in other places of the world.
c) What to do for avoid the oil spills in the oceans that cause a severe damage to the environment.
d) How to improve the methods for the nuclear garbage and the industrial waste disposal.
e) How create new methods for a best use of the energy sources.
3. The creation of new jobs encompasses:
a) To identify those activities where may be created the most number of jobs and to carry out them. This is one of the most sensible areas because of the reduction of the employments in the world as a consequence of the substitution of the workers by machines.
4. The defeat of the illnesses encompasses:
a) To make possible the access of the total world population to the health resources.
b) To advance in the scientific research to find the cure of the most graves illnesses.
c) To spread information about the advances of the science in the discovering of new medicines and curative methods. The human beings have the right of to know those discovering. There are people that assure that the medicine and the pharmaceutical industry have the remedy for some illnesses but that they do not present those medicines because their business would result affected. I do not believe that that is true but, in any case, the commercial interest should not be the most important. I think that, on the contrary, the pharmaceutical industry and the health sector might obtain the same or perhaps most benefits if the discovery of new curative and preventive medicines and procedures be developed.
Definition
According with the OECD Frascat Manual, fifth edition, 1993, paragraph 20, page 5, quoted by STATS.OECD, “…Scientific and technological innovation may be considered as the transformation of an idea into a new or improved product introduced on the market, into a new or improved operational process used in industry and commerce, or into a new approach to a social service…”
Origin of the progress
The innovation is the base of the human progress. But the innovation is linked to the level of education of the nations. A person may have a natural capacity but that is not enough. The natural vocation must be complemented with the formal knowledge. The developed nations reached that level of scientific and technological advance because they had an important amount of creators, people with natural intellectual abilities and a great research capacity.
Many factors influence the intellectual capacity. One of the most important is the quality and quantity of food available in each country and their distribution between the people. In an impoverished country with food scarcity it is very difficult the biological and intellectual development of the population. In change, in the countries with abundance of food is different.
The developed countries have had abundance of food. The underdeveloped nations have had restrictions in this sense. This explains the difference in the level of progress between both.
So that for the construction of a best world, first of all, it is necessary to develop a solid agriculture for producing and distributing the food that the human beings need to live. Without food nothing is possible; for that reason the first priority of the world should be the production and fair distribution of food.
Wealth and knowledge distribution
Until now the distribution of the scientific and technological knowledge has followed the same pattern of the wealth distribution. For breaking that circle it is necessary a great effort. The creation of new institutions of research in the underdeveloped nations is very important. The support to the individual researchers is too very positive. It is necessary to develop a mechanism for to spread the ideas of the unknown creators, because in any mind and in place of the world might be a good idea, something that may help the progress of humanity.
Number of researchers
According with the World Bank, World Development Indicators 2010, Finland is the country with major number of researchers per million of people, followed by Iceland, Sweden, Japan and Singapore as you can see in the table.

The figures confirm that the most developed nations concentrate the most number of the world researchers; by group of nations the Nordic countries are the main.
In the next table you can appreciate the contrast between the most advanced nations and the Latin American countries.

That is the reality that should be modified; the underdeveloped nations should increase the number of their researchers and direct its attention to those problems that most affect those countries. It is the local solution of the problems a way for the global advance of humanity. The regions or countries might create their own scientific and technological methods for to resolve their own problems. Of course, the paper of the global science and technology is something essential, but should exist too the appropriate local or regional contribution.
Cultural duality
It is the coexistence of the most advanced scientific and technological advances with the most precarious and savages forms of live. If you visit some regions of the world you can appreciate that duality. For example some tribes of the Amazonian regions still live in the Stone Age but in those regions you can find, in turn, instruments of the modern civilization.
There are also educated and apparently civilized people that, nonetheless, in their attitudes and mind still live in the Stone Age.
Conclusion
Man is conquering the space but still he has not conquered the Earth. Three big problems deserve the attention of the world leaders: the poverty, the lack or scarcity of natural resources and the damage to the environment. They are politics, economics, scientific and technological problems. The political economy might give a very important contribution but the science and technology must provide the other part. There are concrete problems that need answer: the water scarcity, the pollution, the nuclear, industrial and cities waste disposal, the destruction of the forests, the desertification, the hunger, the poverty and the unemployment.
The objective of the sciences must be the human beings happiness.
What do you think?

Political economy and environment

The pattern of consumption followed until now by the world economy has been based in the intense use of the natural resources and technologies for displace the workers.
By force of the reality that situation will have to change; the reason is very simple: the natural resources are every day more scarcely and the contamination everyday also grows. A new pattern of production and employment will have to be created as a consequence of this situation.
The new technology
One of the big challenges of the modern science and technology is to develop a new model of production less contaminant and a model of employment for to balance the requirements of the technologic development and the social need of creating new jobs.
According with the World Bank 2009 World Development Indicators, page 127, “Energy-related carbon dioxide now accounts for 61-65 per cent of global green house gas emissions…”
These emissions are a serious threat for nature and the human live. The scientists consider that those gases are the cause of the global warming and their consequences, among them, the oceans level increase, changes in the patterns of rain that affects the agriculture and an augment of the natural disasters like intense floods, droughts, storms, hurricanes, among other events.
In the following table you can appreciate the principal generators of carbon dioxide. Table 1

The figures confirm that are the United States and China the top generators of carbon dioxide. The comparison between 1990 and 2005 put in evidence the great growth of China in only fifteen years, country which gases emissions are now very near of the United States level.
The emissions of United States and China are something extraordinary that can not be compared with the rest of the countries. The Russian Federation that in the past was the third generator of carbon dioxide emissions now, in the year 2005, is very far with 1,544 millions of metric tons.
These figures reveal that the future of humanity is in the hands of the leaders of the two powers of the world, United States and China; if they do not adopt effective measures for diminishing these emissions the damage to the entire planet everyday will be worse.
The great problem is how conciliate the economic growth with the environment. If the politicians adopt a clear decision in this matter, the scientists will find ways for make friendlier the production. But the most important is the political decision. Until now the advances has been precarious because it has not had a determinant political decision of the principal leaders of the United States and China.
Fossil fuels impact
The substitution of the petroleum is not possible, among other reasons, because of their energetic intensity that can not be reached by other similar sources. Nevertheless, the technology might create new machines able of reducing the consumption and the level of pollution.
In the transport sector the tests with hydrogen and other sources has been a success but they can not eliminate the oil. The true then is that the world have not other option but to exist side by side with the petroleum for many years more. It is important to say that the situation is difficult because the petroleum is running out in many regions of the world and too few countries will concentrate the most reserves.
In parallel, the international agencies and the governments can adopt effective environmental policies, like a Global Program of Reforestation that moreover of creating millions of new jobs would reduce the global warming.
The effects of the deforestation in global scale are something of great magnitude. In the next table you can see it.

Table 2

Brazil is in the top of the list. This means that the Amazonia is in the first place. The Amazonia is the last forest reserve that still survives in the world. Every year their lands are razed by farmers, lumberjacks and miners. If the destruction of the Amazonian territories is not stopped in too little time the entire world will suffer the consequences. The Amazonian forests are the biggest home of natural species, animals and plants, and reserve of big reserves of sweet water. The behavior of the global climate is linked to the climatic conditions of the Amazonian region, for that reason any change in this affects the entire world.
On March 25, 2010 the Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO, spread the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010, and assured that “…The world deforestation, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agriculture land, has decreased over the past ten years but continues at an alarming high rate in many countries…” The report says that “…Globally, around 13 million hectares of forests were converted to other uses or lost through natural causes each year between 2000 and 2010 as compared to around 16 million hectares per year during the 1990s…”
The report highlights the effort and success of China and India in matter of reforestation.

Less oil more coal
In the previous tables it was proven that the contamination by carbon dioxide has increased in the last years. This phenomenon has happened in spite of the oil consumption decrease experimented by the United States that is the first consumer of the world.
The oil consumption of the United States it reduced in 5.61 per cent between the years 2004 and 2008 but was substituted by China that it has become in the second consumer of oil; in the mentioned period, China increased their consumption of refined products of oil in 22.24 per cent, as you can appreciate in the table.
Table 3


But this augment of the China’s consumption of refined products of oil do not justify the important growth experimented by the carbon dioxide emissions of that country in the last years. Then the question is why this happen?
The answer may be in the consumption of coal that is the most contaminant of the fossil fuels. Indeed, China enhanced their coal consumption in 43.06 per cent between the years 2004 and 2008, followed by the United States, India and the Russian Federation.
Table 4


The consumption of coal is growing as may be appreciated in the table. The amounts are amazing; China consumes more of the double of the United States and seven times more than India. This trend should be modified because of their negative effects. These countries and the world in general should diminish their consumption of coal and substitute it by other less contaminant sources; the technology might offer some options in this sense, perhaps through the use of the geo thermal energy and green sources like the energy of the sun, the wind and the seas.
Conclusion
The consumption of energy will increase in the coming years because of a simple reason: the world population growth. This means an increase of the level of contamination worldwide. The most augment will be in the underdeveloped nations.
The great challenge for the politicians and the scientists is to develop new technologies for guarantee: a) the production efficiency b) the creation of new jobs and c) to preserve the environment.
It will be necessary to make a great economic effort in science and technology. To open the door at new ideas, new people; to listen what the unknown innovators have to say. The human being creation capacity is infinite and in any mind in any place of the world might be the solution of problems that that affects humanity.
The international agencies and the governments might create rewards, prizes, to the creation in the main fields of the knowledge; for example, to promote a global program for improve the production, create jobs and preserve the environment.
There are two options: a) to continue the routine followed until now or b) to explore new roads, to add new ideas, new people of the entire world at the task of creating a better world. What do you think?

Political economy and employment, effects of the financial crisis 2008-2009

One of the worse consequences of the financial crisis was the unemployment increase. According with the International Labor Organization between the years 2007 and 2009, the number of unemployed in the world passed from 177.7 millions of persons to 211.5 millions and the projection for the year 2010 is of 213.4 millions.
It is in the developed economies and in the countries of the European Union where the impact of the crisis was felt with most intensity. According with the ILO Global Employment Trends, January 2010, the number of unemployed in the developed economies and the European Union passed from 29 millions of persons in the year 2007 to 45.6 millions in 2010, 57% more in only two years. In the following table you can appreciate the change in the unemployment rates between the years 2000 and 2009.

These figures confirm that was in the developed nations and in Europe (Western and Eastern) where the financial crisis affected more the employment.
In September 2008 the crisis exploited with the collapse of one of the most important investment banks of the United States and since that moment began a chain of banks downfall in that country and in Europe, especially in the United Kingdom and Germany. The financial crisis it became in a social crisis and thousands of people loosed their homes, their goods and jobs in the rest of the world because of the relations of dependence and complementary between the economies.
The figures of unemployment in the United States are enough illustrative of the reality.

In the United States the unemployment passed from 7 millions of persons in the year 2007 to 14.2 millions in the year 2009, seven millions more in hardly two years, it means 100% more. These figures reveal the magnitude and effects of the financial crisis.
It do not reflect all the true
The official figures of the national and international agencies do not reflect the total unemployment reality. For a simple reason: those figures includes as employed the self-employed people, the workers of the informal sector of the economy and the workers that do not have legal rights. If these workers are excluded of the statistics of employed the unemployment figures would be very different. Important amounts of this type of workers exist in the underdeveloped nations, where millions of workers are out of the formal economy.
A growing demand
According with the International Labor Organization document “Recovering of the crisis, a global job pact”, page IV, of June 2009, “45 million new entrants to the global jobs market annually --most of them young women and men—some 300 million new jobs will need to be created from now to 2015 just to keep pace with the growth in the labor force…”
Is it possible to reach that goal?
The experience demonstrates that there is a gap between the supply and demand of employment.
The creation of jobs is linked to the economic expansion. Nevertheless, it is necessary to say that the modern economy is dominated by the intensive use of the resources of capital that –by mean of the technology-- everyday reduce the employment of workers; they are substituted by machines. That is the global trend.
The traditional economy sustains their development in the principle of the most benefit. The economy is very practice and would not change that concept by humanitarian reasons, as the creation of jobs. So that a change in the policy of intensive use of the resources of capital do not seems likely so far.
Other obstacle for the creation of jobs is the situation of the natural resources. A global shortage of resources as water and petroleum are already visible. The abundance of these vital resources is concentrated in too few regions of the globe: the petroleum in the Middle East and Venezuela and the water in the Amazonian region, but both resources are overexploited.
In South America coexist two contradictory phenomenons: the abundance of water in the Amazonian region of Brazil and the scarcity of water in the neighbors’ territories of Bolivia and Peru, as a consequence of the destruction of the Andes glaciers that provide the water to those regions.
The Inter American Bank of Development considers that in 5 or 6 years the Andes glaciers will disappear. It was assured by Juan Pablo Bonilla, Chief of the Climatic Change Department during the Annual Meeting of Governors of the bank in Cancun, March 2010.
The Andes glaciers are part of the mountain system of South America and are present in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and part of Venezuela.
A similar situation occurs with the glaciers of Himalaya that feed the main rivers of Asia; so that the crisis of water is a global problem that will be more intense in the coming years, affecting the live of the people and the economy.
A different vision
If there is not a change in the political and economical vision the problems of humanity will acquire an unmanageable dimension.
For example, it is necessary a new approach of the economy. The financial benefit must not be the most important objective of the economy and the business. The economy and the business should take in account the ecological and social consequences of the economic activities.
The scientist and technological development is something essential, but it is something essential also to give employment and just wages to the world population. It must have a balance between the economic objectives and the social reality; for that reason the economy should favor the technologies that give more employments to the workers.
Those technologies should consider also the ecological dimension. The pattern of consumption of natural resources employed until now is unsustainable at long term; the best example is how the forests have been destroyed in the entire world. We are now paying the consequences of the depredation.
In the Millennium Goals should be included in the first places the recovery of the forests. That is the unique form of to keep the live at long term.
The creation of ecological employments is a road for to achieve the economic and environment objectives. For example, the establishment of a Global Program of Reforestation sponsored by the international agencies and the governments is a way for benefit the world population. Millions of new jobs may be created through that program.
Other similar ideas might contribute to generate wellbeing for the citizens of the world. The political economy of the 21st century should have as main objective these proposals.

Political economy, overpopulation and demography

Which is the amount of inhabitants that the world economy and the individual economy of each country can feed?
In the last two centuries and especially in the 20th century the population growth had an extraordinary increase. For the 13th century the world population was approximately 250 millions of inhabitants. Five hundred years after, in the middle of the 19th century (1850) the population it multiplied by 4 until 1,000 millions of inhabitants, a growth of 300 per cent. In the following one hundred years, for the year 1950, the world population was 2,529,346 millions of inhabitants, 150% more. In the next fifty years, for the year 2000, the population grew 141% and reached 6,115,367 millions of inhabitants. The projection for the year 2030 is of 8,308,895 millions of inhabitants, 20% more in only twenty years, as you can see in the table:


Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Prospects: the 2008 Revision, New York, 2009 (Advanced Excel tables)
Last update in UNdata: 18 Jun 2009
Next update in UNdata: Apr 2011

In the mentioned historic period only a small number of countries accumulated an extraordinary wealth, the United States, Japan, and some nations of the Western Europe, while the rest of the world stayed in condition of poverty.
For a best comprehension of the reality it is necessary to say that inside the own developed nations exists the same pattern of wealth distribution that exist at international scale, because a good part of the developed nations population is affected too by the poverty.
Which are the true causes of the poverty?
Is the great population growth one of the poverty causes?
In 1798 the philosopher Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) published his Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society. Malthus foresaw two essential issues: a) the accelerated population growth and b) the limitations of the food production.
The figures showed in the previous paragraphs demonstrate how the population has increased in the last centuries. The projections for the coming years confirm the trend until now. A very important fact is that the most growth will occur in the underdeveloped nations.
What is overpopulation?
In a region, a nation or a city there is overpopulation when the economy ---with their available resources--- is not able of producing neither the food (basic goods) nor the formal employments for a portion of the population of that region or place.
It is different when the economy produce enough goods but maintain the most of the inhabitants employed with miserable wages or sub employed; this situation occur in many regions and in many countries; in this case does not exists overpopulation but overexploitation of the workers.
The economy may generate a great production (surplus) and, nevertheless, do not create sufficient number of employments ---with appropriate earns--- for giving welfare to the population.
In the modern world the productive systems use intensive methods of capital that displace the workers and substitute them by machines; when this happen the jobless affects an important number of people. In other societies the workers are practically slaves with large work-days and insignificant wages.
There is overexploitation of the resources when the production surpasses the needs of the market and big stocks of goods remain accumulated.
On the contrary, there is sub production, when the economy can not generate the sufficient goods for satisfying the market needs, the demand of a region, a country a city at accessible prices.
Population and production
They are two faces of the same coin. In theory, the objective of production is the benefit of the people and the objective of the people is producing for fulfill its necessities.
But this does not happen ever in all the societies. Sometimes, the objective of the producers and the merchants is to obtain the most income, no matter how, employing the minor effort, this mean, speculating with the goods and services that they produce or sell; it is the culture of the speculation.
When that behavior is followed by an important number of entrepreneurs, the consequences are the big economic crisis; the modern world has many experiences in that sense.
Causes of the overpopulation
There is an optimal amount of inhabitants that can live in a place; when that number is surpassed begin the problem of overpopulation.
It exist many causes for the overpopulation, among them, the natural birthrate increase, the development of effective health programs and the reduction of mortality. But there are other social important social causes like the search of employment or best conditions of live that attracts big human groups toward determined regions, countries or cities.
The migrations are a form of to export the overpopulation problem since a place toward other place. It occur inside the own countries from a region to other or between nations.
These big movements of human groups generate important politics, economics and social changes; one of them is the concentration in determined geographical areas. This concentration, in turn, provokes other new big problems.
Effects of the overpopulation, the collapse of the cities
In many countries of the world there are clear examples of overpopulation; some emblematic nations are China, India and Japan.
In America, cities as Mexico, Sao Paulo and New York are considered overpopulated zones.
The economic and social problems in the overpopulated areas are growing: jobless, sub employment, drugs, destruction of the family, crimes, traffic chaos, pollution, problems with the basic services supply as electricity, water, waste, among other effects.
One week ago I visited a Latin American city that in only few years ---as consequence of the overpopulation--- changed its style of live. I knew that city ten years ago but now I could not recognize it: lack of electricity, traffic jam unbelievable and pollution. This was one of the most pretty touristic cities of the region but in only few time the situation changed radically. That experience inspired me to write this reflection.
The concentration in the urban areas is a phenomenon proper of the industrial development. In the underdeveloped nations the number of farmers and peasants that leave the rural areas is everyday superior. This fact contributes to enhance the population en the urban areas that usually can not answer to the demand of the new inhabitants.
Impact on the agriculture
The abandon of the country has other grave consequence: the food production diminishment. When a farmer leaves the country the agriculture loses an important support.
One of the pioneers of the economy, the Physiocrats (18th century) thought that the agriculture was the main source of the wealth of nations. They were not very far of the true, because is from the Mother Nature from where man obtain the resources that employ for to satisfy its needs.
The secondary and tertiary sector of the economy receives their inputs from the primary sector; this confirms the importance of the last one.
Policy of population
There is some indifference regarding the policies of population. Few states have integral policies in this matter. Usually the affairs of population are considered since a partial point of view, for example, when the migrations become a problem, but a holistic vision of the theme is not common.
An integral policy of population has to consider the politics, economic and social effects of the changes in the behavior of the big human groups, their natural growth, their distribution in the space, the natural resources use, environment, employment, basic services and the immigration, among other issues.
Some experts have assured that the demographic explosion and the nuclear war are the two great threats to the humankind surviving. And it is true that if the growth pattern followed until now continues, in too few time the world will face most serious global problems of surviving.
Already it is visible the water scarcity, the running out of petroleum in some areas (Indonesia, for example) and the vulnerability of other regions like the North Sea. The resources of the oceans are diminishing in an accelerated form while the contamination affects the agriculture lands worldwide by effect of the use of pesticides and other chemicals. Moreover, the destruction of the forests is causing a huge damage to the live in the entire world.
The food production, especially of cereals, is concentrated in few countries and the scarcity of water is a true menace for the vegetable and animal agriculture.
While some developed countries face the situation known as demographic transition (a growing number of senior citizens) and a reduction of the birth rates, the underdeveloped nations experiment the contrary phenomenon. This fact lead to an unavoidable situation: the poverty increase at medium term.
Demographic policy
The policy of population is the macro, the global concept. In change, the demographic policy it refers only to the population reproduction. So that a demographic policy encompasses the measures for enhancing or diminishing the population birth rate of a region, country, area, etc.
The demographic policy is not only a problem of each country; it is a global problem that deserves to be deeply studied by the international agencies, the universities and the prospective studies centers. It is a problem that affects the present and the future of the entire humanity.
Together the climate change and the preservation of the forests, the population growth perspective should be a priority for the countries and the international community. It is not enough to attend the climate change but the population growth too.
The political economy main objective is linked to a purpose: the wellbeing of man and this depend of the amount of goods available for to distribute; in turn, this depend of the population size.

Political economy, the paper of the State and of the market

Since the beginning of the times until now the chiefs of tribes, monarchs, feudal lords, statesmen and politicians decided the mode of production and the distribution of wealth in all the societies.
The main economic influence has been of the governments and not of the private producers, the farmers, fishermen, craftsmen, industrials, traders nor entrepreneurs. They have played a second place because all them has been controlled by the governments, through laws and administrative decisions.
So that it is a historic lie of the Marxist philosophy assuring that the mode of production and distribution of wealth determine the political and social regime of the society; on the contrary, the politics determine the economic and social system of the society. In consequence, may be assured that the laws of market (supply and demand) have not dominated the economy of the countries. The true is that was the monarchs and now the politicians whose decide the limits of the economy and until where the economics concepts are applicable or not. Moreover, they have decided ever something essential in all the historic stages: the fiscal (tax) and commercial policies. At difference of the laws of the science, the laws of the economy are relative and are linked to the social behavior of the big human groups.
It is obvious that the monarchs and politicians has not been isolated and non permeable people; they are too human beings and like the rest of the people they receive the influence of the social media, the custom and the economic institutions of the society. But, in the reality, they have accumulated the true power; that power, in turn, has been supported in the most important of all the powers: the weapons.
In all the times the common citizens has understood this reality and in the most of the cases they have accepted the authority of whose exert the political power; when this not happened occurred the great revolutions.
The modern world knew two great revolutions: the French Revolution (1789) and the Bolchevique Revolution (1917); they changed the course of history. The first led to the born of a new social class, the bourgeoisie; this class was dominated by many years by the monarchs and the feudal lords but in 1789 the bourgeoisie took the power and began to govern a part of the world. This political revolution was, at the same time, a consequence of other important historic fact: the First Industrial Revolution that began at the middle of the eighteen century with the development of the industrial scale of production and the modern machines.
The effects of the French Revolution are still present in the world; they are the abolition of the monarchy in France and other countries, the creation of the Bourgeois Liberal State that encompasses the representative democracy and the capitalist system of free market.
In 1776, thirteen years before the French Revolution, appeared in London the first edition of the book an Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations of the philosopher Adam Smith; this book would be the economic bible of the new bourgeoisie class.
The second one, the Bolchevique Revolution, destroyed the Russia’s monarch’s power, imposed also a new class ---the proletarian class--- and the communist government in a very important part of the world: Russia, Eastern Europe, China, North Vietnam and North Korea.
The communism received their inspiration from the opposed thesis of the Wealth of Nations of Adam Smith. The new theory was presented in the book The Capital of the philosopher Karl Marx, in the year 1867, ninety one years after the first edition of the Wealth of Nations. The Capital became the new economic bible of the communists.
The effects of the Bolchevique Revolution are also still visible; these are the communist regimes that yet survive in some nations. The Communism demonstrated that is not sustainable in the time and for that reason disappeared in the Former Soviet Union and in Europe in the year 1989.
The capitalist system has passed also by serious and recurrent crisis; in the 20th century the most severe was the Great Depression of 1929 and now, in the 21st century, the international financial system fall in the years 2008 and 2009.
The indifference of the statesmen
It provoked those great economic crises. The lack of control on the financial system was one of the main causes of the economy fallout.
Until where the State must exert control over the economy is an old economic discussion.
The State has had ever the faculty of deciding the essential affairs of the economy but in some moments and circumstances the leaders of the governments has resigned to that prerogative. This caused the big economics problems.
It must have a balance between the State and the market, without this balance neither the economic development nor the business is possible.
In the last decades of the 20th century the monetarist thesis reborn promoted by Milton Friedman and his pupils of the School of Chicago. The principal idea of this conception is the absolute free market, this mean, the non intervention of the State in the economics affairs.
As it is obvious, because of practice and legal restrictions, the thesis of absolute free market was not possible of to apply in all their intensity, but she influenced the political action in some countries, especially in Great Britain and in the United States since the governments of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Regan until the recent government of George Bush Jr.
As consequence of the most recent financial fallout (2008-2009), the authorities have tried of exert a major control on the economy and especially over the financial system; on January 3 2010 in Atlanta, the Federal Reserve chief, Ben Bernanke, declared that “…Regulation must be the first line of defense against speculation…” But the lobbyists of the free market have a great power and influence. They got the bailout for the banks without restrictions. Essential industries, like the automaker and the common citizens did not have the same luck.
The global crisis seems to be permanent. In the last days have appeared the financial problems of Greek and probably Spain, situation that might have an important effect over all the Euro Zone.
Meanwhile, the jobless, the poverty and the environment problem everyday affects a major number of people in the entire world, including the developed industrial nations.
Which will be the future? What do you think?