International oil reality has changed as China becomes the
world's second largest oil consumer, expanding its search for natural resources
all over the world and especially in Latin America, which creates a new
geopolitics of oil and energy.
Index
Synthesis
Change in the geopolitics of oil
Demand of the great powers has not diminished
A scarce commodity
The struggle for oil
Conclusión
Synthesis
The combined oil reserves of the three main world powers
(141.385 million barrels): the United States 36.385 million barrels, Russia 80
billion barrels and China 25 billion barrels, represent less than half (47%) of
oil reserves of Venezuela of 300,878 million barrels by 2015. This fact
highlights the strategic importance of the latter country, since oil is and
will continue to be for a long time the main energy source of the world economy.
The table below shows the countries with the largest oil
reserves as well as the figures for the major powers and Mexico.
World Oil reserves 2015
Millions of barrels
Venezuela 300,878
Saudi Arabia 266,455
Iran 158,400
Iraq 142,503
Kuwait 101,500
Russia 80,000
United States 36,385
China 25,000
Mexico 9,700
Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2016, table 3.1.
Page 22
Since the discovery of oil in the countries of the Middle
East, this region of the world became the most important world energy center.
But the verification of the existence of new oil reserves in Venezuela, which
place that country as the largest holder of reserves, has changed relatively
the geopolitics of oil, because it has displaced an important part of the world
attention to Latin America. For the United States, which is the largest
consumer of oil and for the rest of the countries of Latin America, Venezuela's
reserves are essential because of its geographical proximity, since the other
large world oil reserves available are in the Middle East, at an extended time
of navigation across the Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean. For that reason,
Venezuela has a first-rate geostrategic importance for the United States,
despite the efforts that the country has made to reduce its imports, through
the development of the new technique of fracking production. As is obvious to
suppose, these facts have a very important meaning not only from the economic
point of view but also from the political and military point of view.
Demand of the great
powers has not diminished
The great world powers, the United States, Russia, China, the
United Kingdom and Germany, among others, have not decreased their demand for
oil in recent years, but have maintained and in some cases increased it, as has
happened in China, whose demand rose from 9,409
mb/day in 2011 to 10,832 mb/day in 2015.
Worldwide oil demand
m / b
2011 2012 2013 2014
2015
United States 18,949
18,490 18,961 19,102
19,403
Germany 2,392
2,389 2,435 2,395
2,390
United Kingdom 1,576 1,527 1,502 1,519
1,543
Russia 3,282
3,317 3,376 3,460
3,433
China 9,409 9,739 10,067 10,464 10,832
Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2016
Table 4.8 page 42
As can be seen in the table, the United States is the world's
largest oil consumer followed by China. The oil reserves of these countries are
insignificant in relation to their consumption and therefore need the resources
of other countries. In recent years China has begun a process of searching for
natural resources in Latin America, especially oil, for which it has signed
agreements with Venezuela. This fact highlights the need for this power, that
despite the distance between the two countries, which involves large time and
ocean freight costs, has decided to expand its purchases of Venezuelan oil.
A scarce commodity
Oil is a scarce commodity despite what appearances and
despite the efforts that have been made in recent years to develop fracking, a
technique known since the late forties but never before put into practice due its
high production costs and the damage it causes to the environment. In the book Running Out How Global Shortages Change the
Economic Paradigm, an analysis of the perspectives of oil and other basic
natural resources such as water is made, demonstrating the vulnerability of
these resources, less abundant daily, before a growing world population.
Faced with the limitations of its proven reserves and the
insecurity of Middle Eastern oil and as a result of the energy crisis of 2008
that took in July of that year its highest price in history, the United States
in recent years decided carry on the fracking, as high prices threatened to
create chaos in the world economy. For that reason, the economic crisis of 2008
was allowed to reach extreme levels; the objective was to affect global
economic growth in order to prevent the oil price from reaching extreme levels.
The purpose was achieved and the price of oil not only stagnated but fell to
levels unthinkable until recently. The fracking allowed the United States to
double its oil production between 2011 and 2015 from 5,637 thousand barrels a
day to 9,430 thousand barrels a day and thus affect oil prices. The big
question is how far is it possible for the United States to maintain that level
of production, given the serious environmental damage caused by fracking.
The struggle for oil
The two major world oil consumers, the United States and
China are battling for oil resources. China should find the most advantageous
conditions in Russia and the Middle East, but it goes much further and seeks
oil in Latin America. This fact shows that China does not trust its oil
neighbors enough.
The United States would have the advantage of having
sufficient oil supplies in Venezuela, a few hours of sea-going. That is an
extraordinary fact that places Venezuelan oil as a strategic resource of the
first order for the United States.
Conclusion
Energy consumers are making efforts to use less polluting
sources such as solar and wind energy; important work is also being done in the
automotive industry to create cleaner vehicles. However, it should be noted
that success in this area is relatively restricted, which favors the oil
industry in the medium term. Indeed, as demonstrated in the previous section of
this paper, countries and especially the great powers have not reduced their
oil demand in recent years, but have, on the contrary, maintained and in some
cases increased. For this reason, a country like Venezuela, with the largest
global oil reserves, occupies an important place in the global geo strategy.
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What will happen in the long run? Will the oil be replaced by
a different energy source? They are questions that only time will answer.
Meanwhile, now, oil is and will continue to be the most important energy
source, which moves the world economy and this places the oil countries at the
center of economic, political, geostrategic and military events in the world.
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