A concrete idea to combat the unemployment, political economy

“The economic crisis has taken its toll on the young, ILO estimates that the global youth unemployment rate rose to 12.6% in 2010.” Helen Clark, Head of the United Nations Development Programme, March 21, 2011.

Index

1.     Overview

2.     Inexactitude of the statistics

3.     The sub employment is not revealed

4.     The intense use of technology and its effects on the employment

5.     Machine substituted the work of man

6.     What to do

7.     Demographic control

8.     The double working-day and the half working-day

9.     Global campaign of reforestation

10. Conclusion

1.      Overview

The unemployment is the worse illness of the society. The effects on their victims are of devastation. The employment is essential for the happiness. Unfortunately, the unemployment affects millions of people in the entire world. But there is other similar phenomenon: the sub employment (underemployment); this affects people that exert an economical activity but do not enjoy of a secure income neither the social benefits of the formally employed.

If you add the figures of the unemployed to the figures of the sub employed, the total amount is something really amazing, especially in the underdeveloped nations. The problem is that the figures of sub employment generally stay hidden. The official’s statistics usually do not reveal the sub employment figures.

The unemployment and the sub employment are the main cause of the poverty. So that the first measure to combat the poverty must be the creation of jobs.

But the creation of jobs requires several conditions. The jobs cannot be generated by magic. The creation of jobs responds to concrete needs of the society. An entrepreneur creates a job when he is sure of the utility of that job.

For the creation of a job it is necessary to make an investment; this means the use of financial resources and the employ of material goods, among them, resources of energy ---like petroleum--- that are every day scarcer and expensive.

One hundred years ago, the situation was different: there was abundance of material resources, especially of natural resources. For that moment, still man had not devastated the Earth wealth. The petroleum exploration was hardly beginning and the forests, rivers, lakes and oceans had not been razed.

Now, in the first years of the 21^st century, the reality changed completely. Today, the limitations of natural resources are something real. The reserves of conventional petroleum have diminished in a sensible amount; hundreds of animals and plants species have disappeared; the forests, the marine resources and the reserves of water are also in critical situation in many regions of the world while man realized 2,053 nuclear detonations only between 1945 and 1988. The food is seriously threatened by the drought, the water scarcity and now by the biofuels. For example, by the year 2007, 25% of the United States corn production was for ethanol. On March 31 2011, the Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO, described as “potentially catastrophic climate impacts on food production over the long-term,” in a letter to the Convention on Climatic Change.

But while the natural resources experiment a reduction, the population grow in a constant form. It is a contradictory phenomenon that threats the humankind survival at mid term. The world is overpopulated. This means that the resources are not enough to satisfy the demand of the world population, among them, the demand of employment. You can verify it in a simple form: observe the traffic jam, the limitations in the water availability, the price of gasoline, the number of unemployed and sub employed in your community, the files in the banks, supermarkets, in the drugstores, in the bakeries, the scarcity of food and basic services. This is especially visible in the underdeveloped nations.

2.      Inexactitude of the statistics

I have serious doubts about the exactitude of the statistics of labour; I will explain why. For example, if you study the statistics of unemployment of Mexico, you will find that the level of unemployment was ---approximately--- an average of 3% ---this represent full employment--- between the years 2003 and 2008, like you can see in the table 2.  I do not believe that those figures are true because of a simple reason: during the same period, the immigration of Mexican citizens toward the United States was huge, occupying the first place among the foreign-born population, as may appreciated in the table 1.

Table 1. United States, Foreign-Born Population by Race for Countries with 750,000 or more Foreign Born: 2007. Numbers in thousands

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007, American Community Survey.

Available in Internet in: http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/acs-11-pdf

For the period 2003-2008, the official statistics reveals that in the United States the unemployment was superior to 5%, this mean, superior to the Mexico’s unemployment rate; see table 2. This fact confirms that the doubt about the exactitude of the statistics is absolutely reasonable. The basic question is:  if Mexico has a level of full employment then why do the Mexicans citizens abandon their country to look employment in the United States?   A society that enjoy a high rate of employment, do not experiment a high percentage of immigration of its workers. Then, the logic conclusion is that the official unemployment figures of Mexico are not true. The figures of immigration reveal the economic disparities of the societies and especially their amount of unemployment and sub employment. 

Table 2. Unemployment, selected countries of America

Source: International Labor Organization. Laborsta, Internet.

Available in Internet in http://Laborsta.ilo.org/stp/guest

3.      The sub employment is not revealed

The big problem is the methodology used to define the unemployment. The traditional concept consider unemployed at the people of an age superior to the 18 years that search an employ and do not get it. But the statistics do not consider as unemployed the people that exert activities in the informal economy, the self-employed, neither the people that work for formal economic activities but do not enjoy of a fixed salary neither the social benefits of the formal employed, like the workers that work per hours, or in temporary form. All them are the sub employed, that do not appear in the official statistics. The International Labour Organization has its own concept about unemployment and underemployment, adopted by the 30^th International Conference of Labour Statisticians in Geneve, 1982.

Moreover of the situation of Mexico and the United States, it must be underlined the reality of other countries of Latin America, like Venezuela and Colombia where the sub employment occupy a first plane, but this is not reflected in the official statistics. This situation happens not only in America but in the rest of the world. Therefore, it is right to say that the sub employment is most grave than the unemployment, because the sub employment is a hidden fact ---officially not recognized--- of disastrous effects for the world population.

4.      The intense use of technology and its effects on the employment

The technological development has brought two contradictory phenomenons: a) the displacement of the traditional workers and b) the creation of new technological jobs. The problem is that the former has been more than the second and this has contributed to the maintenance and increase of the unemployment. In some nations the phenomenon has been more intense and in other less. For example, in the last decades, the industrialized societies have kept acceptable levels of unemployment; in change, the underdeveloped nations have been more affected by the use of new technology, displacing a most number of workers.

The industrial societies have prepared the workers for the new challenges derived of the technological development. In the underdeveloped nations this process has been slow and in minor scale. This explains the relative reduced levels of unemployment and sub employment in the industrialized nations and the major amount of both in the underdeveloped countries.

 5. The machine has substituted the work of man

The objective of the entrepreneurs is the economic benefit, for that reason the search optimize their activities through the technology and usually do not consider the social impact of the technological changes. The objective of the governments is different. The governments look the social benefit; therefore, they must establish the rules to guarantee the employment.

It should have a balance between the aspirations of benefits of the entrepreneurs and the social need of to generate employments.

The machines must be used with rationality and justice; man must not be an enemy of the machines neither vice verse, the machines must not be enemies of man.

The machines must be employed to give happiness to the human beings and not to provoke sadness, exclusion and unemployment.

The principal task of the scientists should be to get the balance between the machine and man, and to guarantee the maintenance and creation of employments.

A technology that substitutes the work of man is not a good neither a fair creation. The main objective of man should not be to accumulate more and more money. All the owners of the machines and the most advances technologies will die and shall not keep with them neither the money, neither the machines. They should think in the human effects of their actions, the effects on the families and on the workers, and not only in the egoist desire of to obtain more and more money. At the final, that money will not be useful for them.

6. What to do

The solution to the problem of the unemployment and the sub employment is not easy. Nevertheless, it is possible to achieve important advances. The world might reach partial success in this matter. The problem is of such magnitude that requires the action of the international agencies, the national governments of the countries, the entrepreneurs and the workers worldwide. But the main responsibility corresponds to the international agencies like United Nations and the World Bank. They should be the sponsors of a global campaign for the promotion of the employment and the preservation of the environment. I think that those should be the principal goals of those institutions, because the unemployment and the destruction of the environment are the two most graves material problems of the world. In turn, those problems have a cause: the overpopulation.

The high rate of population growth in the underdeveloped nations is responsible of the world overpopulation.

7. The demographic control

If the population growth rhythm continues like until now, to resolve the basic needs of the world society will be everyday more difficult. The first measure should be to begin a global campaign of demographic control in the underdeveloped nations. The situation is different in the industrialized nations because they experiment a contrary phenomenon known as demographic transition. This is the augment of the life expectancy of the senior people and the reduction of the birthrate.

I think that the international agencies, United Nations and the World Bank and the national governments of the underdeveloped nations should develop a Global campaign of demographic control. This is the unique form of to guarantee the next generations survival.

8. The double working-day and the half working-day

Twenty three years ago, in 1988, I wrote and published, in Spanish, an economic model to fight against the unemployment. The title of the thesis was “A concrete idea to combat the unemployment, the double working-day and the half working-day.” Available in Amazon:

 http://www.amazon.com/Concreta-Combatir-Desocupaci%C3%B3n-Jornada-Spanish/dp/9803002813/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1301159461&sr=1-1

The model was dedicated to the countries that suffer high levels of unemployment as consequence of the weakness of their markets, this mean, the weakness of the internal demand, by lack of income of a good part of the population, the unemployed.

It is an economic model that search to enhance the production of goods and services and to increase the level of employment, through the full use of the time of work, the productive infrastructure and the machinery. It is a new form of organization of the production and the work. The model is applicable especially in those countries where there is a productive capacity not enough used.

The core of the proposal is the legal creation of two different working-days of seven hours each one in a same day. In the most countries, the legal working-day is of eight (8) hours, but with the new proposal it would be established legally a second working-day of seven (7) hours. The workers that work in the first working-day cannot work in the second working-day. This fact guarantees the creation of new jobs that will be occupied by new workers.

The first working-day would begin at 7 am until 2 pm and the second working day would begin at 2 pm until 9 pm.

I shall explain the benefits with a single example: If 7 workers produce 7 pair of shoes in 7 hours, 7 new workers will produce 7 additional pair of shoes in the next seven hours of the second working-day. This mean that in the same day will be duplicated the jobs and the production.

Moreover of the industry, the model is applicable in the services sector; for example, in the medical and sanitary services. This would be especially useful for the underdeveloped nations that suffer serious restrictions because of the lack of medical attention.

9. Global campaign of reforestation

The other option to achieve a quick and effective creation of jobs is through the development of a Global campaign of reforestation, sponsored by United Nations and the World Bank, with the cooperation of the governments of the countries.

The Global campaign of reforestation would let to create millions of ecological employments worldwide and, in consequence, to attack the problem of the poverty and the unemployment. The other big advantage of this program is that it would let to keep the environment, because of the multiple benefits that the trees give to the people. The reforestation favors the ecological balance, the oxygen of the air, the rain, the conservation of the soils among others advantages.

To develop the Global campaign of reforestation it is not necessary to employ fossil fuels, like petroleum neither coal and this is its other great positive difference regarding other forms of creation of jobs. For example, to create one employ in the agriculture, the industry or in the tertiary sector it is necessary to use big amounts of energy. The campaign of reforestation does not need big amounts of energy.

10. Conclusions

-         There is not one or a rigid number of actions to promote the employment and to fight against the unemployment and the sub employment. I think that the human being have the duty of helping to find roads, solutions. That is what I want to do, only to help to find ways to solve this big problem that hit deeply the hearts and the life in family of the human beings in the entire world. The unemployment is something terrible, especially for the young people, that lose its hope when do not get a formal work. The same happen to the adults and to the senior citizens.

-         The international community, through the international agencies, the United Nations and the World Bank, might contribute in a decisive form to diminish the problem of the unemployment and the sub employment. I think that they might sponsor three basic campaigns: a) The Global Campaign of Demographic Control, b) The Global Campaign of Double Working-day and Half Working-day and c) The Global campaign of Reforestation, like concrete measures to combat the poverty, the unemployment and protecting the environment worldwide.

-         The Global campaign of demographic control is something essential to guarantee the survival of the next generations. The rate of population growth of the last decades is unsustainable.

-         The Double Working-day and the Half Working-day should be developed especially in those activities that require the less use of energy, like the tertiary sector of the economy; for example, in the activities to improve the quality of life of the population, like the medicine and services of health.

-         The Global Campaign of Reforestation is not only a measure of conservation of the environment but a measure of conservation of energy because its realization do not imply the use of the traditional sources of energy, petroleum neither coal.

Political economy food and demographic control

Traditionally, the power of the countries has been associated to the size of their population.
Power and population has been synonymous; but with the development of the science and technology that perception has changed.
Now, the synonymous of power is the scientist knowledge domain; the atomic weapons were the main cause of that transformation.
In the past, the military force was determined by the number of soldiers’ and the conventional weapons; now, the military supremacy is decided by the possession of nuclear weapons.
The atomic experience caused a great impact in the world. The nuclear powers learned the lessons of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. In the following decades the great nuclear countries participated in new war scenarios ---Korea, Vietnam and Middle East--- but in none case they used the atomic energy.
The military power and the economic power are strongly tied. Without economic development the military power is not possible.
In turn, the economic development is related to the size and purchase capacity of the market ---population--- and other key issues like the availability or not of factors of production and their appropriate use.
Since the theorist point of view, each one of the factors of production ---capital, land and work--- has the same hierarchy. None of them is more important than other. But, in the 21st century reality, the natural resources (land) have acquired a special paper; the reason? Because of signs of scarcity and contamination are already visible in many regions of the world especially in the agriculture sector in matter of water and land.
A similar perspective occur regarding the other forms of energy, like the petroleum, because the reserves are draining in specific areas, among them, the North Sea, the United States, Mexico and China. Hence, a constant increase of the petroleum price is very possible.
The agriculture is the basic form of energy because it provides the food that feed our lives. The food is energy. Now, in the modern world, the petroleum is a basic input for the agriculture because it determines the crops yield by mean of the fertilizers and supply the combustible that move all the machinery, among other basic inputs of the productive chain. So that any increase in the petroleum price touch directly the agriculture costs. The mentioned facts exert a significant impact on the possibilities of the agriculture expansion and the food production at mid and long term.
Demographic control
The other important issue is the population growth. According with the FAO projections, the most augment will occur in the developing countries. In change, the minor growth will be in the industrial nations, because of the demographic transition phenomenon, which mean a high rate of longevity and a small birthrate. If this phenomenon augments in the coming years, the industrial countries will suffer a process of deep cultural change since that new migratory flows sure will transform the custom of those societies. The influence of the migratory groups already is evident in the industrial countries like the United States and in Europe. This will provoke a change in the politics and the economy not only of the recipient countries but in the rest of the world. This is a subject that deserve be considered in a complete work.
The effect of the population growth on the food production will be one of the most important issues for humanity in the coming years.
There are three options to satisfy the growing food population needs: a) to increase the production, b) to reduce the population growth or c) both.
The restrictions that affect the agriculture expansion are well known like the land scarcity, the water stress, the contamination and the inflation in the energy prices; so that the demographic control might be an alternative to tackle the reality.
The demographic control is the action adopted by the states through their policies of population for regulating ---increase or diminish--- the birthrates in a country or region. The objective of the demographic control is to determine the population size at mid and long term.
There are successful cases of demographic control; China, for example, diminished their birthrates in the 20th century notwithstanding to be the most populated country of the world. Other overpopulated nation, like India, has employed too the demographic control to lessen their birthrate. Where the situation is out of control is in Africa.
In other moments of the history, like in the thirty and forty decades of the 20th century, leaders as Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler used the demographic control to stimulate the birthrate in its countries. They promoted the marriages and for each son the government gave a reward to the parents. The objective of those governments was to increase the number of soldiers for the war.
The mentioned examples demonstrate that the demographic control has been used in two contradictory directions: by a side to enhance and by the other to restrict the birthrate, according to the population policies of the countries.
A fact that must be mentioned is that the demographic control was employed principally by autocratic governments in the 20th century; but it does not mean that it is a mechanism proper of that kind of regimes, no, the demographic control is an instrument of the policy of population that may be used the same by the democratic regimes and other type of governments.
Unsustainable
The true problem is the global high rate of population augment of the last century ---the most in the history--- and their projection, a trend that will be unsustainable for the limited resources of the Earth at mid and long term. Only the technology might help to curb the consequences of the overpopulation improving the methods of production and distribution of goods and services.
In the thirty years between 1970 and 2000, the world population increase was of 64.43 per cent; the developing countries augment of 81.75 per cent and the industrial countries growth rate 24.48 percent.

The international agencies, like FAO, assure that the population growth of the thirty years between the year 2000 and 2030 will be the half of the average observed in the last three decades between the year 1970 and 2000. They do not explain which the reasons are for suppose that the historical behavior will change. The projection for the year 2030 is 2,059 million of inhabitants more regarding the year 2000, as may be appreciated in the following table.

The foreseen total population increase for the year 2030 is a big amount, approximately the third part of the current global total; it mean that will be necessary producing the food that the new population will need. This requires more land and more water, including a most exploitation of the oceans resources and more petroleum and coal. In turn, this implies more contamination. How conciliate all these situations is the key question.
Conclusion
The political economy and the technology might supply the theorist and practice support to tackle basic issues like the production increase and the struggle against the poverty to face the future high population growth. But the demography must play a privileged paper. The demographic control to diminish the birthrate in the developing countries will be something necessary. On the contrary, the birthrate increase will be fundamental for the industrial nations to reduce the impact of the demographic transition phenomenon, which threat to become those countries in societies of old people, societies of senior citizens condemned to disappear at long term. A balance between the population growth of the developing nations and the industrial nations is the fair.
Realistic policies of population should be developed by all the nations; this encompasses key issues like the policies of immigration and the policies of population distribution in the space, to favor the nature and the environment, among others.
What do you think?

Political economy, overpopulation and demography

Which is the amount of inhabitants that the world economy and the individual economy of each country can feed?
In the last two centuries and especially in the 20th century the population growth had an extraordinary increase. For the 13th century the world population was approximately 250 millions of inhabitants. Five hundred years after, in the middle of the 19th century (1850) the population it multiplied by 4 until 1,000 millions of inhabitants, a growth of 300 per cent. In the following one hundred years, for the year 1950, the world population was 2,529,346 millions of inhabitants, 150% more. In the next fifty years, for the year 2000, the population grew 141% and reached 6,115,367 millions of inhabitants. The projection for the year 2030 is of 8,308,895 millions of inhabitants, 20% more in only twenty years, as you can see in the table:


Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Prospects: the 2008 Revision, New York, 2009 (Advanced Excel tables)
Last update in UNdata: 18 Jun 2009
Next update in UNdata: Apr 2011

In the mentioned historic period only a small number of countries accumulated an extraordinary wealth, the United States, Japan, and some nations of the Western Europe, while the rest of the world stayed in condition of poverty.
For a best comprehension of the reality it is necessary to say that inside the own developed nations exists the same pattern of wealth distribution that exist at international scale, because a good part of the developed nations population is affected too by the poverty.
Which are the true causes of the poverty?
Is the great population growth one of the poverty causes?
In 1798 the philosopher Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) published his Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society. Malthus foresaw two essential issues: a) the accelerated population growth and b) the limitations of the food production.
The figures showed in the previous paragraphs demonstrate how the population has increased in the last centuries. The projections for the coming years confirm the trend until now. A very important fact is that the most growth will occur in the underdeveloped nations.
What is overpopulation?
In a region, a nation or a city there is overpopulation when the economy ---with their available resources--- is not able of producing neither the food (basic goods) nor the formal employments for a portion of the population of that region or place.
It is different when the economy produce enough goods but maintain the most of the inhabitants employed with miserable wages or sub employed; this situation occur in many regions and in many countries; in this case does not exists overpopulation but overexploitation of the workers.
The economy may generate a great production (surplus) and, nevertheless, do not create sufficient number of employments ---with appropriate earns--- for giving welfare to the population.
In the modern world the productive systems use intensive methods of capital that displace the workers and substitute them by machines; when this happen the jobless affects an important number of people. In other societies the workers are practically slaves with large work-days and insignificant wages.
There is overexploitation of the resources when the production surpasses the needs of the market and big stocks of goods remain accumulated.
On the contrary, there is sub production, when the economy can not generate the sufficient goods for satisfying the market needs, the demand of a region, a country a city at accessible prices.
Population and production
They are two faces of the same coin. In theory, the objective of production is the benefit of the people and the objective of the people is producing for fulfill its necessities.
But this does not happen ever in all the societies. Sometimes, the objective of the producers and the merchants is to obtain the most income, no matter how, employing the minor effort, this mean, speculating with the goods and services that they produce or sell; it is the culture of the speculation.
When that behavior is followed by an important number of entrepreneurs, the consequences are the big economic crisis; the modern world has many experiences in that sense.
Causes of the overpopulation
There is an optimal amount of inhabitants that can live in a place; when that number is surpassed begin the problem of overpopulation.
It exist many causes for the overpopulation, among them, the natural birthrate increase, the development of effective health programs and the reduction of mortality. But there are other social important social causes like the search of employment or best conditions of live that attracts big human groups toward determined regions, countries or cities.
The migrations are a form of to export the overpopulation problem since a place toward other place. It occur inside the own countries from a region to other or between nations.
These big movements of human groups generate important politics, economics and social changes; one of them is the concentration in determined geographical areas. This concentration, in turn, provokes other new big problems.
Effects of the overpopulation, the collapse of the cities
In many countries of the world there are clear examples of overpopulation; some emblematic nations are China, India and Japan.
In America, cities as Mexico, Sao Paulo and New York are considered overpopulated zones.
The economic and social problems in the overpopulated areas are growing: jobless, sub employment, drugs, destruction of the family, crimes, traffic chaos, pollution, problems with the basic services supply as electricity, water, waste, among other effects.
One week ago I visited a Latin American city that in only few years ---as consequence of the overpopulation--- changed its style of live. I knew that city ten years ago but now I could not recognize it: lack of electricity, traffic jam unbelievable and pollution. This was one of the most pretty touristic cities of the region but in only few time the situation changed radically. That experience inspired me to write this reflection.
The concentration in the urban areas is a phenomenon proper of the industrial development. In the underdeveloped nations the number of farmers and peasants that leave the rural areas is everyday superior. This fact contributes to enhance the population en the urban areas that usually can not answer to the demand of the new inhabitants.
Impact on the agriculture
The abandon of the country has other grave consequence: the food production diminishment. When a farmer leaves the country the agriculture loses an important support.
One of the pioneers of the economy, the Physiocrats (18th century) thought that the agriculture was the main source of the wealth of nations. They were not very far of the true, because is from the Mother Nature from where man obtain the resources that employ for to satisfy its needs.
The secondary and tertiary sector of the economy receives their inputs from the primary sector; this confirms the importance of the last one.
Policy of population
There is some indifference regarding the policies of population. Few states have integral policies in this matter. Usually the affairs of population are considered since a partial point of view, for example, when the migrations become a problem, but a holistic vision of the theme is not common.
An integral policy of population has to consider the politics, economic and social effects of the changes in the behavior of the big human groups, their natural growth, their distribution in the space, the natural resources use, environment, employment, basic services and the immigration, among other issues.
Some experts have assured that the demographic explosion and the nuclear war are the two great threats to the humankind surviving. And it is true that if the growth pattern followed until now continues, in too few time the world will face most serious global problems of surviving.
Already it is visible the water scarcity, the running out of petroleum in some areas (Indonesia, for example) and the vulnerability of other regions like the North Sea. The resources of the oceans are diminishing in an accelerated form while the contamination affects the agriculture lands worldwide by effect of the use of pesticides and other chemicals. Moreover, the destruction of the forests is causing a huge damage to the live in the entire world.
The food production, especially of cereals, is concentrated in few countries and the scarcity of water is a true menace for the vegetable and animal agriculture.
While some developed countries face the situation known as demographic transition (a growing number of senior citizens) and a reduction of the birth rates, the underdeveloped nations experiment the contrary phenomenon. This fact lead to an unavoidable situation: the poverty increase at medium term.
Demographic policy
The policy of population is the macro, the global concept. In change, the demographic policy it refers only to the population reproduction. So that a demographic policy encompasses the measures for enhancing or diminishing the population birth rate of a region, country, area, etc.
The demographic policy is not only a problem of each country; it is a global problem that deserves to be deeply studied by the international agencies, the universities and the prospective studies centers. It is a problem that affects the present and the future of the entire humanity.
Together the climate change and the preservation of the forests, the population growth perspective should be a priority for the countries and the international community. It is not enough to attend the climate change but the population growth too.
The political economy main objective is linked to a purpose: the wellbeing of man and this depend of the amount of goods available for to distribute; in turn, this depend of the population size.