miércoles, 17 de diciembre de 2008

Is the supremacy of the United States in peril?

To begin, I want to say that I believe that the United States is a great country, with an extraordinary population that has played a stellar role in the world. For example, if the United States had not participated in the Second World War today the freedom neither the democracy would exist.
The United States has contributed in an extraordinary form to the world development and for that reason is the first power of the planet, not only since the military point of view but since the political and economic.
However, in the last years, in the horizon have emerged signs that seems demonstrate that the country might be losing part of their influence and power. Is it this true? Until where? Is it false? This essay has as objective that you, the reader, obtain yourself a conclusion on the theme.
The work is divided in two parts; in the first it is presented an international vision of the situation and in the second part is presented an appreciation of some problems that impact the United States internal policy.
First part
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Cold War end, worldwide the main institutions are in a process of deep change. The political, economics, moral and religious institutions are suffering an intense transformation. The United States has not escaped of this process. But the change in the United States is especially important because this country is the first power of the world, and everything that happen in the US affects the rest of the nations.
During the Cold War the powers maintained a permanent state of alert. The competition was not only limited to the military affairs but also to the economics, political, scientist and technologic issues.
However, since the Cold War end the attitude of alert diminished and the programs of national security of the powers began to change too.
This affected other areas as the political and economic as will be demonstrated in the followings paragraphs.
New threat to the peace
The communist threat was replaced by the Muslim terrorist threat that executed their first intense action on September 11 2000 in New York. Since then, the Western World has lived in constant uncertainty.
The reaction to the terrorist act of September 11 was the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. But those war acts brought serious consequences for the United States and the Middle East countries.
Iran intensified their nuclear program that ---obviously--- has the objective of producing nuclear weapons.
Al-Qaeda terrorist group enhanced their actions in the region and maintains the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The clashes between Jewish and Arabs grew during the last years and the hope of peace is very far.
Is the US loosing the political and military battle in the Middle East?
So far, the United States has not been able of to retire their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. On the contrary, recently it was announced that will send 20,000 new soldiers to the last country.
To reach the peace and a stable government in Iraq appear as a very difficult goal.
If the United States withdraws their forces from Iraq and Afghanistan ---without defeat first Al-Qaeda--- there is a real possibility that this group or other extremist groups take the control of these countries governments. If this happen, the consequences for the region and the world peace are unpredictable’s.
What to do then?
The hostility toward the US and the Western World in the Middle East countries has augmented in the last years and this represents a growing risk for the world peace.
Iran will develop their nuke
Without the Russia’s help Iran had not developed their atomic program. And Russia continues helping Iran in this matter. For that reason Iran will achieve their objectives. This demonstrates that the Russian discourse about the control of nuclear weapons is not true.
The sanctions of the United Nations and the United States and European threat are not enough for detaining the Iran nuclear program.
Which is the road?
North Korea blackmail to the US negotiators
North Korea violated the first Agreement of Nuclear Disarmament of 1994. In that opportunity obtained several advantages: financial help, food, petroleum and the promise of the construction of a nuclear plant for electricity.
A new Agreement was signed on February 2008 and again North Korea received petroleum and other advantages but, until now, December 2008, has not carried out the commitment of closing the nuclear facilities.
The political battle in other parts of the world
In the decade of the eighty years, the Prime Minister of England, Margaret Thatcher and the US President, Ronald Regan, adopted a new political economy.
The intensification of the free market policies and the globalization was the core of the new political approach, known as Neoliberalism.
Those ideas were imposed to the rest of the world through the financial institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The Neoliberal policy was not a success. On the contrary, one of their consequences was that nine countries of Latin America ---the majors--- are governed by leftist regimes.
Indeed, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua have leftist governments.
It is necessary to mention the Mexico’s case, where, recently, a leftist candidate, Cuathemoc Cárdenas, lost the election by too few votes. In Mexico, the left is a real option of power.
China is the new competitor
Which would be the attitude of the Chinese leadership might be reflected in the following statement of the general Zhu Chenghu, Dean of the China National University of Defense, who, on July 15 2005 in Beijing, declared to the international journalists the following:
“China must be prepared for attacking the United States with nuclear weapons, if this country support to Taiwan in their independence ambition.”
And he added:
“If the North American employ their missiles against the Chinese territory, China will respond with atomic weapons.”
“China is prepared for the destruction of all their cities at the east of Xian, in the center of the country but, the North Americans must to know that hundreds of their cities will be destroyed by the armed forces of China. The logic of the war imposes that the more weak power does their maximum effort for to defeat to their rival.”
Of course, a day after, the Chinese government assured that it was a personal statement of the general that do not reflect the official policy of the country.
However, it is valid to comment that information’s reveled by the international agencies has assured that in the past China helped to North Korea to develop their nuclear program and that, even, has sold uranium to this country. True? False?
Second part
The US might become a Latin country

This is a metaphor, but something that is not very far of the reality at long term.
In the history, ever the immigration has exerted a double influence: receive the culture of the receptor country and give their culture to the receptor country.
When a minority surpasses the 5 percent of the total population of a country already it is not a minority but an important part of the inhabitants of that country.
Since the political point of view, in a democratic system ---elections--- the five per cent of the population is decisive, especially because the difference between candidates is usually small. Since the economic point of view is also very important. The Latin population in the US is currently estimated in approximately 10% of the total.
In the reality, already it exist states of the United States with a very important presence of Latin Americans: Florida and California, for example. Even, in the first election of the President Bush, the international news agencies highlighted the decisive participation of the minority of Florida Cubans. True? False?
How to resolve the immigration problem is one of the great challenges of the US.
The nuclear security
In the last years, the international press has revealed a chain of facts that reveal how the nuclear security of the United States might be suffering a process of weakening.
The first incident happened in the year 2006, when four electrical fuses for ballistic missile warheads were mistakenly shipped to Taiwan.
The second was in the year 2007 when a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear missiles when it flew between North Dakota and Louisiana bases.
The last incident occurred on May 23 2008 when a fire destroyed part of an underground nuclear launch site in Wyoming.
As it was indicated al the begin of this work, this kind of facts might reveal that since the Cold War end, the nuclear powers has diminished their attention on their nuclear security programs.
The moral crisis, how the gays gain influence
The developed societies face a severe moral crisis. The recognition of the marriages between persons of the same sex is the cherry of the cake.
The problem is that the gay community requests the right of to adopt children. If this is approved ---and please let me to use a metaphor--- in too few years the world will be a world gay, because the sons of these couples will not know what is the right and normal and what not.
The other problem is that this social group request to be accepted without restrictions in the armed forces of the countries, and there are politicians that support this ambition of the gay community. This would be the end of the armed forces.
The corruption has reached even institutions as the Christian and Anglican churches in several countries, with priests involved in sex scandals with children.
These are some facts of the current world reality. What will happen in the future? What do you think? pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com

martes, 9 de diciembre de 2008

The mortgages are not the main cause of the financial fallout

The mortgages crisis is one but not the principal cause of the financial bankruptcy. The main cause is the proper economic system that put the financial economy in first place.
The priority of the system is the financial speculation and not the production in the real economy. The money is the God of the system. Nothing is more important than the money. And everybody invest their money with the hope of obtaining big profits. But this not ever happen. The speculation is a risk.
The speculation in the Stocks Markets is, then, the other cause of the financial crisis. The bad investments, the over appreciation of the shares and the fall of the markets was visible too few months ago. The United States Stock Market crisis was the prelude of the banking fallout.
The lost caused by the mortgages are not enough to provoke the world economy ruin.
After months of continuous increase, on July 11 2008 the oil reached their maximum historic level, US $ 147; a similar trend was observed with the food prices.
These facts contributed to accelerate the financial problem. The first consequences of the commodities price enhance were the reduction of the consumption. The crisis favored some sectors of the economy in detriment of others.
The true is that the financial crisis came up because the banks had problems hanging over them for many years, and not only because of the mortgages situation. A financial crisis of this magnitude does not emerge by surprise.
The other great true is that in the financial crisis the bankers save their personal fortunes.
The answers, so, must be searched in the administration of the financial system that was not able of to guarantee the health of the institutions.
But the major responsibility is of the countries governments that did not exert an effective control on the banks activities.
This is not the first time that the financial system collapses and sure will not be the last. Mean while, the publics funds ---in other words, the taxpayers--- pay the account for the bankers happiness.

lunes, 8 de diciembre de 2008

Banks in bankruptcy but rich bankers, Theory of the Coercive Deficit

The people that know the politics are aware that there are some activities that any government and any congress can not deny to support.
The bankers, for example, know that any government can let the savers lose their money because if this happen all the financial system is in danger. When a bank fails, usually the small clients recover their money through the governments insurance.
The bankers know that they can do anything with the client’s money because in the countries majority the governments do not have capacity for controlling their activities. They are aware too of the most important issue: that the governments will restore the money to the savers. They know that the governments and congress do not have other option but to pay to the savers because if they do not pay there is a serious risk of social disorders and economic chaos. This is known as the Theory of the Coercive Deficit.
For that reason the bankers use the savers money as they want. When a financial crisis occurs, generally you find banks in bankruptcy but rich bankers. Who fail is the bank no the bankers. Usually the bankers have their money secure in other kind of investments. The problem is for the savers that have to wait that the government restore their money.
In some countries this kind of conduct is legally punished but usually these persons ---that have enough money for living in other countries--- escape to other nations or financial paradises. In other countries ---instead of punishing these actions--- the governments give more money to the bankers.
The financial activity is something essential for any economy. But it is necessary to guarantee the money of the savers. And this implies more official control on the banks, especially over their investments.
Gift money to rich bankers is a sin. As too is a sin to deny help to the poor that struggle for keeping their homes.

domingo, 7 de diciembre de 2008

Was the 2008 recession provoked with a deliberate objective?

Who are the main beneficiaries of the recession?
The bankers are the beneficiaries. They have found an excellent way for obtaining gratis public funds.
The rest of the society will pay the gift given to the bankers.
In the United States and in Europe will be the tax-payers who will assume the charge.
The bankers know that usually the governments pay the account when they say that do not have money.
In some countries the governments take the property of the banks when the banks fail. In other countries the governments give the bailout without conditions.
But the bankers ever win, even after nationalization, because usually some time later the institutions come back to their hands or to the hands of their partners. There are too many examples of this type world-wide.
In the current crisis the financial sector has obtained an unbelievable amount of resources that will help to increase the banker’s wealth.
Moreover, the crisis brought other consequences: the most important is the oil price fall.
The leaders of the financial sector knew anticipated the principal consequences of the crisis and, perhaps, they thought that obtaining the financial assistance of the government, by one hand, and obtaining the oil price fall, by the other, are enough reasons to justify the recession. Perhaps some leaders of the governments of other nations have thought the same. The result has been the 2008 recession.
This is a scenario that deserve not be ruled out.

jueves, 4 de diciembre de 2008

Why helping the car industry? Because the solution is in the real economy and not in the financial economy

Those that have created the crisis can not resolve the problem. As in the Great Depression of the thirty years, the financial sector provoked the current recession. For that reason the solution of the crisis is not in the financial economy.
Again the world society must learn that the true wealth is in the material production and not in the illusion of the money.
The money is to the economic body the same that the blood to the human body but the core of the economic body is the material production, the agriculture, the petroleum and mining, the industry and some key services.
The money per ser does not create wealth nor well-being. The money is only a mean, a way that let the transactions in the economy.
The speculation in the Stock Exchange is not the best road to keep neither the wealth nor the well-being of the society. The investment in the real economy is different because generates true wealth: goods and services.
In the current recession, the speculation has been one of the main causes. Hardly too few month ago the world economy ---and specially the poor countries--- was desperate
by the increase of the oil and food prices.
This recession is a good opportunity for to reflection about what true wealth is and what not.
Helping the car industry, for example, is necessary for maintaining the economy not only of the United States but of the rest of the world. This industry is vital for the real economy.

miércoles, 3 de diciembre de 2008

The carmaker is the most emblematic industry of the North American Capitalism

If the industry closes their doors, it would be a knock out to the core of the economic system and to the American Dream.
The carmaker was one of the first great industries of the United States and, until now, their contribution has been vital for the creation of jobs and the development of science and technology. Sure also has made mistakes as sure too other sectors has made errors. But the automaker industry is something essential for the North American economy and the world economy.
The industry has now the challenge of developing a new type of green cars for to avoid the destruction of the planet.
The progress of a country is linked to their capacity for to develop efficient means of transport. The modern society must not to come back to the time of the horses and wagons.
It is a problem of justice. Why is not requested the same conditions to the financial sector?
The financial help that is requesting the carmaker industry is something insignificant compared with the help given to the bankers. The difference is that the industry is a creator of true wealth.

martes, 2 de diciembre de 2008

The carmaker industry deserves the financial help of the Congress

Helping the carmaker industry is a secure mean for guarantee the recovery of the North American economy.
The impact of the automobile industry on the rest economy is of great magnitude. The recuperation of this industry is something essential for the general well-being of the society.
The industry has made a serious effort for to improve their activity but has been a victim of the general economic crisis, especially, of the reduction of the purchase capacity of the consumers in the last months.
The announce of the Ford CEO, Alan Mulally, who said on Tuesday December 2 that he will work for $ 1 per year if the company take a government loan, reveals the attitude of this industry.
The leaders of Wall Street and of the main banks that received the financial aid of the Congress never has pronounced a promise of this kind.
Helping the automobile industry is not only just but something necessary for the recover of the lost jobs and the economic growth of the United States and the rest of the world economies.

lunes, 24 de noviembre de 2008

How to recover an economy after a financial disaster

Giving assistance direct to the consumers
and key industries is the unique manner
of to recover an economy after a financial disaster

Sometimes the leaders of the countries forget the lessons of the history. And the most important lesson of the history is that the history tends to repeat.
That is what is happening now in the United States. A similar phenomenon ---analogue is the correct word because is in part equal and in part different--- already occurred in the decade of the thirty years.
Indeed, after the collapse of 1929 ---during the Great Depression--- the President Hebert Hoover thought that giving financial assistance to the banks was the correct form for recover the North American economy. But very soon the facts demonstrated that the President Hoover was in a mistake. The government gave the financial assistance to the banks, but the money not ever went to the hands of the population. The bankers invested the official financial help in their own interest and business.
The lesson of the history says that the unique manner of to recover an economy after a financial disaster is giving the help directly to the people and sectors that need the assistance.
Now, and in the near future, giving financial assistance to the carmakers industry, for example, is not only something just but an efficient form to begin the recovery of the North American economy.
The impact of the carmaker industry on the rest of the economy is something that anybody can to dispute. This industry is a key activity for the generation of jobs, the development of the science and technology and the creation of true wealth.
For those reasons, giving financial assistance to the car industry is one efficient way for recover the economy.
The other way is giving direct assistance to the people that have lost their homes and to those people that are struggling for keeping their homes. The government might create an official fund for financing directly to those families. The poor North American people have too the right of to be helped by their government.

martes, 18 de noviembre de 2008

Giving financial assistance direct to the consumers

Giving financial assistance direct to the consumers
Is the unique way for to resolve the crisis

The financial assistance to the banks does not guarantee the solution of the economic crisis. In the history ---during the Great Depression--- a similar decision was adopted by the government but was not successful.
The unique manner of to restore the power of purchase to the consumers is giving the financial assistance direct to them.
Giving assistance to the banks does not guarantee that the banks will invest that money helping the consumers. On the contrary, the banks might use those resources for investments that guarantee their own interest, that usually are not the interest of the consumers.
To help an industry as the carmakers is a way for to restore the power of purchase of the population.
To help directly to the debtors of the real estate sector is a way for the solution of the crisis.

miércoles, 29 de octubre de 2008

The UK Oil Will Last 4 Years More

The oil price reduction is temporary
and very soon will reach unbelievable levels

The UK oil will last only 4 years more
The USA and Mexico oil only 8 years more

The abundance of oil is something temporary and the sign of the oil crisis will be visible soon. Now, on October 2008, when the oil price descended to less of US$ 100, I am sure that this reduction is something temporary and that the oil price will reach unthinkable levels at medium term.
The United Kingdom will be the first Western country where the oil will finish. If that country maintains the production and the level of reserves that had for the year 2005, the collapse of the United Kingdom oil will occur in four years, it means, for the year 2012.

A similar phenomenon already has happened. Indeed, on May 28 2008, an important member of the OPEC, Indonesia, announced their withdrawal of the Organization, because of already do not have enough oil and can not to continue being an exporter.

The Norway oil will last seven years more, until the year 2015; the United States and Mexico oil only eight years more, until the year 2016, and the China oil nine years more, it means, until the year 2017, says the author.
Between the year 2000 and the year 2005, the oil reserves of the United Kingdom diminished 19.4%, from 5,0002 millons of barrels to 4,029 millions of barrels.
The reserves of Norway presents a similar sitation, because passed from 13,158 millions of barrels to 9,691 millions of barrels, it means, -26.3%.
The reserves of the United States passed from 21,765 millons of barrels to 21,371 millons of barrels, 1.8% less.
The Mexico situation is more dramatic because ther reserves diminished 48.5% from 28,260 millions of barrels to 13,700 millons of barrels.
China presents a similar situation, because ther reserves diminished 33% passing from 24,000 millions of barrels to 16,038 millions of barrels.
The figures demonstrate the reality. If this trend continue, in too few years the energetic crisis will appear.