Abandoned by the politicians and economists of the 20th century, the political economy necessary will reappear in the 21st century, because of a simple reason: man can hide the true, do not recognize it, but this not change the true; and the true is that the political economy is the most important of the social sciences because it synthesize the two most important activities that determine the live of the human beings. The politics alone is not sufficient; the economy alone neither. The combination of both is the base of the power and government an all the societies.
The political economy was abandoned at the begin of the 20th century because she could not respond to the main economical challenges of that moment, among them the economic cycle, the inflation, the devaluation of the currencies, the poverty and the growing unemployment.
Alfred Marshall (1842-1924) separated the economy of the politics and tried of creating an autonomous discipline; he did it and since then emerged the economics as an independent study. The new economics focused their attention in the microeconomics and the econometrics among other issues.
Marshall had interest in the human side of the economy and in contrast with the previous classical economists he asserted that was possible better conditions of live for the working classes. Marshall had a strong social sense and assured that the principal task of the economics should be to eliminate the poverty.
But the new economy promoted by Alfred Marshall and his pupils could neither resolve the accumulated problems. It was John Maynard Keynes, a traditional economist, former pupil of Marshall, which developed the politics and economic new system that gave to the world a partial solution for the economics problems of that historic stage. That new system was the macroeconomics, an integral political proposal that considered the increase of salaries and the private and public expenditure as the key factor for attacking the jobless and the economic recession. The thesis of Keynes was contrary to the ideas sustained by the Classical Economy, which thought that the reduction of salaries was the way for reactivating the employment and the economic growth.
The conception of Keynes let the recovery of the hit economies of the post war. For that reason the thirty years of growth between 1945 and 1975 was named the Age of Keynes. That period was very favorable for the developed nations of America and Western Europe but not for the rest of the world; in those years and the followings (80 and 90) the gap between the rich and the poor nations registered a great difference. The Capitalism generated an important progress but limited only to a small number of countries.
The Communist regimes of the past and of the present, like the Former Soviet Union and the nations of the Eastern of Europe, China, North Korea and Vietnam neither reached an economic welfare; on the contrary, they were and they are impoverished countries.
The first conclusion in this sense is that none of the economics systems has been able of to improve the quality of live of the majority of the world population so far.
Origin of the wealth and the poverty
The first form of property was the community property. The primitive man did not know the private property. It was the appropriation of the first lands by the stronger men the cause of the original richness; this was too the first economic sin. The consequence of this process was the born of two classes: the owners and the exploited, this means the rich and the poor.
A reflection on the evolution
The concept of evolution deserves an especial consideration. Man of the 21st century has the same predatory attitude of the primitive man. He commits murders, abductions, cheatings and stealing, terrorist acts against innocent people, maintain the slavery and do the war.
In parallel also exists the contrary: goodness, kindness, justice, love, religiosity and peace; the great problem is that in the majority of the societies this is not the common. This lead to an unavoidable question: until what the human being has evolved?
Man has achieved a great level of development since the scientist and technological point of view but not in his social and economic behavior.
In the 21st century exist the same social and economics conflicts of the Prehistory, it means:
a) The struggle by the property of the land: a minority is the owner of the majority of the urban and agricultural lands in the entire world.
b) The majority of the workers worldwide receives an insignificant salary that do not let them neither to buy the essential food.
c) The unemployment and sub employment affects the most of the workers worldwide.
d) The economics and social conditions of the work in the most part of the underdeveloped countries are in the practice conditions of slavery.
e) The struggle by the wealth distribution benefits to the privileged rich classes.
A new conflict has emerged
But a new conflict ---unknown in the past--- has arisen in the beginning of the 21st century: the global shortages of basic natural resources ---as water and petroleum--- that change the economic paradigm. The shortage of natural resources is a consequence of the overexploitation of the resources and of the pollution. The outcome is the scarcity of manufactured goods and more inflation.
A look to the past
The evolution of the humanity is divided in two great stages: the Prehistory and the History; the first is the period previous to the invention of the writing and the second begin since that moment until the present.
In the Prehistory man built the basic elements of the progress: constructed the first instruments of stone, learned how to transform the matter through the fire and discovered the agriculture, the ceramic, the metals, the road, the tools, the architecture, the textile, among other great advances.
At the beginning of the history in successive stages developed the writing and after created the print, an instrument that changed completely the history.
The other great historic jump occurs in the 18th century: the creation of the machine of vapor and of a new scale of production developed during the First Industrial Revolution in Europe.
In the 19th century appears in the scene the Second Industrial Revolution; this was the revolution of the energy and emerged two inputs ---the petroleum and the steel--- that joined to the electricity modified completely the live of millions of people.
In the 20th century the progress of the chemical and the medicine and the creation of the mass media represented the other great changes of the history. In this century happened, moreover, two extraordinary facts: the discovery of the nuclear energy and the conquer of the space.
All the mentioned advances suppose a great dominium of the exact sciences, the mathematics, physics, chemical, biology, medicine and the astronomy.
Man do not dominate the social sciences
But the human being has not been able of to reach the same level of development in the social sciences, especially in the economics and in the politics.
Man has not been able of:
a) Diminishing the poverty and for that reason more of two thirds of the world population lives in the extreme poverty with an income of less of two dollars per day.
b) To guarantee a decent salary to the most of the workers neither to create enough employments in the world.
c) To avoid the war and to live in peace, employing the politics and the diplomacy.
d) Preserving the forests, the nature, neither of does not contaminate the planet.
What does it reveal?
Similar to the savage’s animals
This reveals that man can dominate the external things but he is not able of dominating his primitive’s impulses and his conduct. It means that in his essence man is a predatory animal similar to the savage beasts. A simple example is sufficient for validating this concept: observe the behavior of man against the other men in the war scenarios. Currently, in plenty 21st century there are unbelievable examples in this sense in the Middle East, in Africa, in Asia; you know which those scenarios are and it is not necessary to do explicit mention of them.
Has evolved the human being?
What is evolution?
What do you think?
Conclusion
The political economy may contribute to build a better world.
The first step is recognizing the failure of the economics systems so far.
The Communism has been a complete failure in the nations where has been applied.
The Classical Economy could not anticipate the depression nor the unemployment. It had a non realist and theorist vision of the economy. The classic economic model of pure competition and equilibrium supported in the laws of the supply and demand has never existed. For that reason the Classical economists could not believe that a crisis might occur as a consequence of a fail in the demand.
The Marginalist thesis of Stanley Jevons (1835-1882) and Leon Walras (1840-1910) had also a capital sin: they considered the economy as an automatic mechanism that work in independent form of the rest of the society.
By other hand, the partial vision of the microeconomics imposed by Alfred Marshall at the beginning of the 20th century neither represented a solution for the practice economics problems of that epoch.
The Keynesian model ---that combined the participation of the investments and the regulatory action n of the State with the productive action of the private sector--- has been the most successful economic model until now.
But in the eighty years of the 20th century came back again the formulas of the Classical Economy, especially the Quantity Theory of Money, from the hand of Milton Friedman and his pupils of the Chicago School. The new monetarism caused a severe damage to the world economy because it stressed the difference between the rich and the poor nations and increased the poverty in the entire world, through a mechanism known as globalization.
Which would be a solution?
A synthesis of the best of the capitalism and the best of the socialism might be the possible solution.
The recurrent economic crisis in the capitalists nations put in evidence that the free market policies without none class of restrictions generates graves consequences. The most recent economic debacle of the years 2008 and 2009 is a good example of the assured.
On January 3, 2010 during the American Economic Association meeting in Atlanta, the chief of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, pointed out that:
“Stronger regulation is the best way to prevent financial speculation from getting out of hand and throwing the economy in a new crisis…” (a) By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Sunday January 3, 2010, 1:41 pm EST.
Other leaders have expressed opinions in the same direction but the resistance to any change is enormous. This happens not only in the United States but in the rest of the capitalist’s nations of the Western World.
Two concrete measures
The politicians and the economists have lost the time in non important affairs. For example, they have not been able of paying effective attention to the three most important problems that affects the humanity: the poverty, the unemployment and the destruction of the nature and the environment.
A concrete Policy of Global Wellbeing should begin with two activities:
a) A Global Program of Employments. The ecological employments ---through the reforestation--- would be an effective way in that sense.
b) A Global Program of study and improvement of the salaries for the working classes.
These two programs might create the conditions for the construction of a better world.
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta globalization. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta globalization. Mostrar todas las entradas
lunes, 8 de febrero de 2010
jueves, 3 de diciembre de 2009
The natural resources will be the cause of the peace or the war in the 21st century
The most important politics and economic issue of the 21st century is the problem of the natural resources availability. This will be the cause of the peace or the war, the cause of the economic progress or of the recession in the coming years.
In the last years the world has seen diverse politics and economics problems in the first place of the scenario but in the heart of those problems the natural resources were the main cause.
The weakness of the dollar front the Euro and other currencies, the real state crisis in the United States, the financial fallout and the recession in the United States, the confrontation between Iran and the western countries, the agreement between North Korea and its neighbours on the nuclear program, the civil war in Iraq, the confrontation between the United States and Russia by the missiles base in Yugoslavia, the climatic change and the global warming, they are different situations but with a common origin: the natural resources crisis.
The weakness of the dollar front the Euro and other currencies born in the balance of payment deficit of the United States as consequence, among other causes, of the growing imports of oil. The recession in the US was a consequence too of two important facts: a) the banker’s avarice and b) the oil price rise in the year 2008, vital commodity that impacts the rest of the prices in the productive chain.
The confrontation between the Western countries and Iran is also an energetic confrontation because Iran is the owner of one of the most important petroleum reserves and everyday move away from the western countries. This fact put in danger the oil supply to the rest of the world. On October 17 2007, the President of The United States, George Bush, declared that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon the humanity will face the Third World War.
The North Korea nuclear threat had as main cause the lack of petroleum and food in that country and the cessation of hostilities between the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and North Korea, were supported in an agreement signed on February 2007 for given petroleum and food to this last country.
The civil war in Iraq was a consequence too of a problem of natural resources. The United States invaded Iraq for to assure the petroleum reserves of this country. That is the true.
The confrontation between Russia and the United States by the missiles base in Yugoslavia had as principal cause the struggle by the influence in the Middle East, and since the practice point of view this mean the influence over the oil sources of the region. Russia is diminishing in an accelerated form their petroleum.
The other international key issues, the climatic change and the global warming, is too a problem of natural resources, because of the effects of these phenomenon on the global environment and the global production of goods and services.
In the last years the world has seen diverse politics and economics problems in the first place of the scenario but in the heart of those problems the natural resources were the main cause.
The weakness of the dollar front the Euro and other currencies, the real state crisis in the United States, the financial fallout and the recession in the United States, the confrontation between Iran and the western countries, the agreement between North Korea and its neighbours on the nuclear program, the civil war in Iraq, the confrontation between the United States and Russia by the missiles base in Yugoslavia, the climatic change and the global warming, they are different situations but with a common origin: the natural resources crisis.
The weakness of the dollar front the Euro and other currencies born in the balance of payment deficit of the United States as consequence, among other causes, of the growing imports of oil. The recession in the US was a consequence too of two important facts: a) the banker’s avarice and b) the oil price rise in the year 2008, vital commodity that impacts the rest of the prices in the productive chain.
The confrontation between the Western countries and Iran is also an energetic confrontation because Iran is the owner of one of the most important petroleum reserves and everyday move away from the western countries. This fact put in danger the oil supply to the rest of the world. On October 17 2007, the President of The United States, George Bush, declared that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon the humanity will face the Third World War.
The North Korea nuclear threat had as main cause the lack of petroleum and food in that country and the cessation of hostilities between the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and North Korea, were supported in an agreement signed on February 2007 for given petroleum and food to this last country.
The civil war in Iraq was a consequence too of a problem of natural resources. The United States invaded Iraq for to assure the petroleum reserves of this country. That is the true.
The confrontation between Russia and the United States by the missiles base in Yugoslavia had as principal cause the struggle by the influence in the Middle East, and since the practice point of view this mean the influence over the oil sources of the region. Russia is diminishing in an accelerated form their petroleum.
The other international key issues, the climatic change and the global warming, is too a problem of natural resources, because of the effects of these phenomenon on the global environment and the global production of goods and services.
martes, 17 de noviembre de 2009
The Political Economy in the 21st century, Theory of the Political Supremacy
To get the human beings happiness must be the purpose of the economics.
Objective of the essay
The goal of this essay is to demonstrate the necessity of building a new approach of political economy that helps to create a best world.
Historic vision
The development of the economic thought practically began in the 16th century. Previously, some philosophers, Thucydides (455-4009), Xenophon (430-355), Plato (384-322) and Aristotle (384-322) made some contributions to the economics. In fact, the term economy comes from the Ancient Greek and was Aristotle who made a first approach to the Theory of Value. In his book Politics, he distinguished between the value of use and the value of change and realized also some considerations regarding the Quantity Theory of Money.
In the Roman Empire we find the contribution of the Emperor Diocletian; he established the first control of prices in the economy and appears too the work of Varron (116-27) on agricultural economics.
After, in the Middle Age (centuries V to XV), highlight the Summa Theological of Saint Thomas of Aquino (1225-1274), who exposed the value of the just price, the just salary and condemned the usury.
Some years after appear the work of Nicholas Oresme (1340-1382), who criticized the reduction of the value of the money made by kings. The work of Oresme was the inspiration of Thomas Gresham (1519-1579) who demonstrated ---some years after--- how the less valued currencies displace the most valued currencies.
The Mercantilism
Gresham inaugurated the Mercantilist thought in the 16th century. The Mercantilism defended the thesis of the state intervention in the economy. The mercantilists sustained that the wealth of nations was represented by their stocks of gold and silver and by a positive balance of payments; this means, by the promotion of the exports and the restrictions to the imports.
Among the principal mercantilists authors must be mentioned the names of Juan Botero (1540-1617) and his book Reason of State; Antoine Montchretien ( 1575-1621), who employed for first time the term political economy; Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-1683); William Petty (1623-1687), with his book Political Arithmetic, considered, moreover, founder of the economics and Richard Cantillion (1680-1734) considered too founder of the economics.
The Physiocrats
Between the years 1760 and 1770 emerge in France a new economic vision. It was the thought of the Physiocrats, who’s sustained a different idea regarding the causes of the wealth of nations.
The Physiocrats thought that the agriculture was the base of the wealth and not the bullion (gold and silver), neither the advantages in the foreign commerce as had assured the Mercantilist theory until that moment. They believed in a natural order and were opposed to the state intervention in the economy. This represents the opposite thesis to the Mercantilism.
The principal exponent of the Physiocracy was Francoise Quesnay (1694-1774), who created the Tableu Economique in 1758, a model of economic analysis where he demonstrated the flows of the economy. This work was the base of the modern econometrics years after.
Classic Economy
In the year 1776 occur a fact that would change the economic history. It was the publication of the book An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, of the philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790). This book is considered the main economic work of all the times.
Smith contradicted the appreciations of his predecessors and argued that the industrial production is the most important cause of the wealth of nations increase and made a severe opposition to the intervention of the state in the economy.
Smith inaugurated the period of the Classic Economy, which other principal figures were Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834); Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832); David Ricardo (1772-1823); John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) and the main critic of the Classical Economy, Karl Marx (1818-1883).
This broad period of time, since the 16th century until the 18th century was characterized by a fact: the consideration of the economic phenomenon as a whole discipline: the political economy.
I think that the political economy was a method of analysis that took in account not only the economic conditions but the society as a whole. This method was used the same by the Mercantilists, Physiocrats and the Classic Economy.
The modern economics
In 1890 with the publication of his book Principles of Economics, Alfred Marshall founded the modern economics.
In the three previous centuries 16th, 17th and 18th, the economics was considered a subject of the Moral Sciences, a branch of the politics, and for that cause and methodological reasons it was called political economy. The founders of the economics were aware of the paper of the state in the economic behavior of the society.
Marshall developed the microeconomics. John Maynard Keynes called him “the founder of the diagrammatic economics…”
In 1903, thirteen years after the publication of his Principles, Marshall gets to create the Cambridge School of Economics and to separate the economics studies of the Moral Sciences and the politics. Since that moment the economics and the economists began a new road. They leaved the political economy and centered its efforts in concrete problems, in the microeconomics and in the new mathematical economics.
In the 46 years between 1890 ---with the publication of the Principles of Marshall--- and 1936 when appear the thesis of John Maynard Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, the Marginalist and mathematic trend dominated the scenario.
In that historic period emerged important figures that would tackle specific economic affairs. Francis Edgeworth (1845-1926) with is Mathematical Physics and his Theory of Distribution; Wilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) and his Manuale di Economia Politica; John B. Clark (1847-1938) Distribution and Wealth; Eugene Böhm-Bawerk (1851-1914) Positive Theory of Capital; Frank Taussing (1859-1940) Tariff History of the United States; Werner Sombart (1864-1920) DES Moderne Kapitalismus; Gustav Casel (1866-1945) the Nature and Necessity of Interest; Arthur C. Pigou (1877-1959) Wealth and Welfare and Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) the Theory of Money and Credit, among other economists.
In the already 46 years mentioned ---between 1890 and 1936--- the economic crisis acquired a new and intense dimension. The Communism obtained the power in Russia in 1917 and the radicalism found a fertile field in the impoverished European population. The inflation and the unemployment reached unbelievable figures in those years. This let the promotion of men as Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler and was the main cause of the First and Second World War. In the United States the Great Depression of 1929 threatened the real bases and the intellectual support of the North American capitalism.
The economic crisis discredited the economics and the economists: the old political economy and the new modern economics of Marshall and his pupils.
The paper of Keynes
John Maynard Keynes rescued the prestige of the economics. With his General Theory, he demonstrated that the control of the inflation and the unemployment were possible. He evidenced that the holistic method of the political economy was indispensable for resolving the economics problems. He tackled the crisis with an integral vision and proved that the control of the state and their investments are essentials for the economic progress.
The Keynes’s theory was a practice success and was applied in the United States, in Europe an in the rest of the world since the decade of the forty years.
“Keynes was the most important economic thinker of the 20th century. His influence was of such magnitude that the thirty years of the world economy success between the years 1945 and 1975 were called the Age of Keynes.
But as none remedy to the economics problems is permanent, the years of the Keynes success began to experiment problems and the crisis reappeared again. The increase of the oil prices since 1970 was one of the causes of the new global situation.
The monetary system established in Breton Woods in 1945 started to present problems at the end of the fifty years, when some European countries doubted of the dollar strength as instrument of international reserves, generating the prelude of a new world economic crisis.
In the seventy years appeared a new trend that hardly criticized the Keynesian model. It was the famous School of Chicago, which principal figure was the professor Milton Friedman, who revived the Quantitative Theory of Money. He asserted that the inflation is a monetary problem and that reducing the amount of money and adopting a policy of freedom to establish prices, wages and interests rates the inflation may be dominated…”
(1) Pablo Rafael González. Apreciación Crítica de la Política Monetaria, el bolívar oro. Monte Ávila Editores Latinoamericana, 2007. Pages 33 and 34.
Effects of the Neo liberalism
The intellectual position of the professor Friedman and the School of Chicago ---Neo liberalism--- was adopted by the government of Margaret Thatcher in England since 1979 and by the government of Ronald Regan in the United States. This policy was assumed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in those years and imposed to the rest of the world through the globalization.
The outcome of the globalization has been the enhance of the poverty and the environmental damage, the privatization of many of the public institutions of the undeveloped countries, the increase of the public services tariffs, the inflation and the augment of problems of balance of payments of the developed and underdeveloped countries.
For the industrial nations, one of the principal effects of the Neo liberalism and the globalization has been the financial crisis of the year 2008. The model affected and weakened the mechanisms of controls of the governments on the financial institutions.
The other great error of the model has been giving preeminence to the financial capitalism and to put the real economy in second place. These facts caused the explosion of the current crisis.
Conclusion
I think that the political economy is a method of analysis that take in account, holistically, the paper of the economics in the society. The political economy is not a doctrine but a system of thought for the global comprehension of the economics, politics, environmental and social relations.
The sin of the modern economy has been their partial approach, the micro vision of the economics. The modern economics has worked deep in the trees but has loosed the perspective of the forest.
The mistakes of the politicians and economists explain why does more of the three fourth parts of the world population remain in the poverty and the half live with less of $2 per day.
New challenges have arisen, among them the natural resources crisis as consequence of the overexploitation of the resources and the pollution. These phenomenons have created a new paradigm for the economy.
In the 21st century it is necessary to recover the method of analysis of the political economy and to build a new political conception for attacking the poverty, managing the problem of the natural resources and preserving the environment. With willpower it is possible to reach both objectives; God save the next generations.
Objective of the essay
The goal of this essay is to demonstrate the necessity of building a new approach of political economy that helps to create a best world.
Historic vision
The development of the economic thought practically began in the 16th century. Previously, some philosophers, Thucydides (455-4009), Xenophon (430-355), Plato (384-322) and Aristotle (384-322) made some contributions to the economics. In fact, the term economy comes from the Ancient Greek and was Aristotle who made a first approach to the Theory of Value. In his book Politics, he distinguished between the value of use and the value of change and realized also some considerations regarding the Quantity Theory of Money.
In the Roman Empire we find the contribution of the Emperor Diocletian; he established the first control of prices in the economy and appears too the work of Varron (116-27) on agricultural economics.
After, in the Middle Age (centuries V to XV), highlight the Summa Theological of Saint Thomas of Aquino (1225-1274), who exposed the value of the just price, the just salary and condemned the usury.
Some years after appear the work of Nicholas Oresme (1340-1382), who criticized the reduction of the value of the money made by kings. The work of Oresme was the inspiration of Thomas Gresham (1519-1579) who demonstrated ---some years after--- how the less valued currencies displace the most valued currencies.
The Mercantilism
Gresham inaugurated the Mercantilist thought in the 16th century. The Mercantilism defended the thesis of the state intervention in the economy. The mercantilists sustained that the wealth of nations was represented by their stocks of gold and silver and by a positive balance of payments; this means, by the promotion of the exports and the restrictions to the imports.
Among the principal mercantilists authors must be mentioned the names of Juan Botero (1540-1617) and his book Reason of State; Antoine Montchretien ( 1575-1621), who employed for first time the term political economy; Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-1683); William Petty (1623-1687), with his book Political Arithmetic, considered, moreover, founder of the economics and Richard Cantillion (1680-1734) considered too founder of the economics.
The Physiocrats
Between the years 1760 and 1770 emerge in France a new economic vision. It was the thought of the Physiocrats, who’s sustained a different idea regarding the causes of the wealth of nations.
The Physiocrats thought that the agriculture was the base of the wealth and not the bullion (gold and silver), neither the advantages in the foreign commerce as had assured the Mercantilist theory until that moment. They believed in a natural order and were opposed to the state intervention in the economy. This represents the opposite thesis to the Mercantilism.
The principal exponent of the Physiocracy was Francoise Quesnay (1694-1774), who created the Tableu Economique in 1758, a model of economic analysis where he demonstrated the flows of the economy. This work was the base of the modern econometrics years after.
Classic Economy
In the year 1776 occur a fact that would change the economic history. It was the publication of the book An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, of the philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790). This book is considered the main economic work of all the times.
Smith contradicted the appreciations of his predecessors and argued that the industrial production is the most important cause of the wealth of nations increase and made a severe opposition to the intervention of the state in the economy.
Smith inaugurated the period of the Classic Economy, which other principal figures were Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834); Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832); David Ricardo (1772-1823); John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) and the main critic of the Classical Economy, Karl Marx (1818-1883).
This broad period of time, since the 16th century until the 18th century was characterized by a fact: the consideration of the economic phenomenon as a whole discipline: the political economy.
I think that the political economy was a method of analysis that took in account not only the economic conditions but the society as a whole. This method was used the same by the Mercantilists, Physiocrats and the Classic Economy.
The modern economics
In 1890 with the publication of his book Principles of Economics, Alfred Marshall founded the modern economics.
In the three previous centuries 16th, 17th and 18th, the economics was considered a subject of the Moral Sciences, a branch of the politics, and for that cause and methodological reasons it was called political economy. The founders of the economics were aware of the paper of the state in the economic behavior of the society.
Marshall developed the microeconomics. John Maynard Keynes called him “the founder of the diagrammatic economics…”
In 1903, thirteen years after the publication of his Principles, Marshall gets to create the Cambridge School of Economics and to separate the economics studies of the Moral Sciences and the politics. Since that moment the economics and the economists began a new road. They leaved the political economy and centered its efforts in concrete problems, in the microeconomics and in the new mathematical economics.
In the 46 years between 1890 ---with the publication of the Principles of Marshall--- and 1936 when appear the thesis of John Maynard Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, the Marginalist and mathematic trend dominated the scenario.
In that historic period emerged important figures that would tackle specific economic affairs. Francis Edgeworth (1845-1926) with is Mathematical Physics and his Theory of Distribution; Wilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) and his Manuale di Economia Politica; John B. Clark (1847-1938) Distribution and Wealth; Eugene Böhm-Bawerk (1851-1914) Positive Theory of Capital; Frank Taussing (1859-1940) Tariff History of the United States; Werner Sombart (1864-1920) DES Moderne Kapitalismus; Gustav Casel (1866-1945) the Nature and Necessity of Interest; Arthur C. Pigou (1877-1959) Wealth and Welfare and Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) the Theory of Money and Credit, among other economists.
In the already 46 years mentioned ---between 1890 and 1936--- the economic crisis acquired a new and intense dimension. The Communism obtained the power in Russia in 1917 and the radicalism found a fertile field in the impoverished European population. The inflation and the unemployment reached unbelievable figures in those years. This let the promotion of men as Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler and was the main cause of the First and Second World War. In the United States the Great Depression of 1929 threatened the real bases and the intellectual support of the North American capitalism.
The economic crisis discredited the economics and the economists: the old political economy and the new modern economics of Marshall and his pupils.
The paper of Keynes
John Maynard Keynes rescued the prestige of the economics. With his General Theory, he demonstrated that the control of the inflation and the unemployment were possible. He evidenced that the holistic method of the political economy was indispensable for resolving the economics problems. He tackled the crisis with an integral vision and proved that the control of the state and their investments are essentials for the economic progress.
The Keynes’s theory was a practice success and was applied in the United States, in Europe an in the rest of the world since the decade of the forty years.
“Keynes was the most important economic thinker of the 20th century. His influence was of such magnitude that the thirty years of the world economy success between the years 1945 and 1975 were called the Age of Keynes.
But as none remedy to the economics problems is permanent, the years of the Keynes success began to experiment problems and the crisis reappeared again. The increase of the oil prices since 1970 was one of the causes of the new global situation.
The monetary system established in Breton Woods in 1945 started to present problems at the end of the fifty years, when some European countries doubted of the dollar strength as instrument of international reserves, generating the prelude of a new world economic crisis.
In the seventy years appeared a new trend that hardly criticized the Keynesian model. It was the famous School of Chicago, which principal figure was the professor Milton Friedman, who revived the Quantitative Theory of Money. He asserted that the inflation is a monetary problem and that reducing the amount of money and adopting a policy of freedom to establish prices, wages and interests rates the inflation may be dominated…”
(1) Pablo Rafael González. Apreciación Crítica de la Política Monetaria, el bolívar oro. Monte Ávila Editores Latinoamericana, 2007. Pages 33 and 34.
Effects of the Neo liberalism
The intellectual position of the professor Friedman and the School of Chicago ---Neo liberalism--- was adopted by the government of Margaret Thatcher in England since 1979 and by the government of Ronald Regan in the United States. This policy was assumed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in those years and imposed to the rest of the world through the globalization.
The outcome of the globalization has been the enhance of the poverty and the environmental damage, the privatization of many of the public institutions of the undeveloped countries, the increase of the public services tariffs, the inflation and the augment of problems of balance of payments of the developed and underdeveloped countries.
For the industrial nations, one of the principal effects of the Neo liberalism and the globalization has been the financial crisis of the year 2008. The model affected and weakened the mechanisms of controls of the governments on the financial institutions.
The other great error of the model has been giving preeminence to the financial capitalism and to put the real economy in second place. These facts caused the explosion of the current crisis.
Conclusion
I think that the political economy is a method of analysis that take in account, holistically, the paper of the economics in the society. The political economy is not a doctrine but a system of thought for the global comprehension of the economics, politics, environmental and social relations.
The sin of the modern economy has been their partial approach, the micro vision of the economics. The modern economics has worked deep in the trees but has loosed the perspective of the forest.
The mistakes of the politicians and economists explain why does more of the three fourth parts of the world population remain in the poverty and the half live with less of $2 per day.
New challenges have arisen, among them the natural resources crisis as consequence of the overexploitation of the resources and the pollution. These phenomenons have created a new paradigm for the economy.
In the 21st century it is necessary to recover the method of analysis of the political economy and to build a new political conception for attacking the poverty, managing the problem of the natural resources and preserving the environment. With willpower it is possible to reach both objectives; God save the next generations.
miércoles, 14 de octubre de 2009
Economic dimension of the ecological employments, a way for fighting against the poverty and the climate change
The creative capacity, the imagination, is the most important. Through the imagination, man has conceived all the changes for building the modern society. A clear example of the creative capacity effects is the science and technology advance.
So far, in spite of the great progress reached in the science and the technology, man has been not able of achieving two important goals for the world population welfare: eradicate the poverty and preserving the environment.
The world population majority lives with less of $2 per day. The water is draining in many regions of the world; the petroleum too. The climate change has become a real threat. While everyday a portion of the forests are destroyed.
What to do?
The problem is that any program of economic expansion requires two scarce elements: money and natural resources. The additional problem is that the economic expansion requires a major use of energy and this imply an augment of the contamination.
Man can resolve the scarcity of financial resources. But he can not resolve the natural resources scarcity. He has to work with the existents resources. But ---with imagination--- man can diminish the contamination.
How?
The ecological employments are a way; it can resolve a good part of the unemployment problem without increase the pollution. And, on the contrary, to create an effective solution to weaken the climate change.
The creation of al Global Program of Ecological Employments divided in stages is a solution. In the first stage might be developed a Global Program of Reforestation. In the second, a Global Program of Preservation of the Water Resources.
Those initiatives would generate millions of new ecological employments worldwide. The main benefits will be for the poor population of the different world countries. The programs will give a salary and will increase the purchase capacity of millions of people. In consequence, it will produce an economic expansion phenomenon that will help the global economy recovery.
The financial resources for carry out the programs might come from the World Bank and the most developed countries. The rich countries will receive too a benefit because of the international commercial expansion that the mass of financial resources invested will cause.
Compared with other forms of jobs creation, the ecological employments are the cheapest. The investments for the creation of a job in other economic activities surpass several times the cost of an environment job creation.
The other great advantage is that these programs do not require an important increase of the fossil energy use.
In synthesis we can say that the programs would promote the global economy recovery, would create millions of new ecological jobs, increase the welfare of millions of families and contribute to diminish the global warming and the natural resources preservation.
So far, in spite of the great progress reached in the science and the technology, man has been not able of achieving two important goals for the world population welfare: eradicate the poverty and preserving the environment.
The world population majority lives with less of $2 per day. The water is draining in many regions of the world; the petroleum too. The climate change has become a real threat. While everyday a portion of the forests are destroyed.
What to do?
The problem is that any program of economic expansion requires two scarce elements: money and natural resources. The additional problem is that the economic expansion requires a major use of energy and this imply an augment of the contamination.
Man can resolve the scarcity of financial resources. But he can not resolve the natural resources scarcity. He has to work with the existents resources. But ---with imagination--- man can diminish the contamination.
How?
The ecological employments are a way; it can resolve a good part of the unemployment problem without increase the pollution. And, on the contrary, to create an effective solution to weaken the climate change.
The creation of al Global Program of Ecological Employments divided in stages is a solution. In the first stage might be developed a Global Program of Reforestation. In the second, a Global Program of Preservation of the Water Resources.
Those initiatives would generate millions of new ecological employments worldwide. The main benefits will be for the poor population of the different world countries. The programs will give a salary and will increase the purchase capacity of millions of people. In consequence, it will produce an economic expansion phenomenon that will help the global economy recovery.
The financial resources for carry out the programs might come from the World Bank and the most developed countries. The rich countries will receive too a benefit because of the international commercial expansion that the mass of financial resources invested will cause.
Compared with other forms of jobs creation, the ecological employments are the cheapest. The investments for the creation of a job in other economic activities surpass several times the cost of an environment job creation.
The other great advantage is that these programs do not require an important increase of the fossil energy use.
In synthesis we can say that the programs would promote the global economy recovery, would create millions of new ecological jobs, increase the welfare of millions of families and contribute to diminish the global warming and the natural resources preservation.
martes, 15 de septiembre de 2009
Climate Change affects the food production
I would like to write good news ever. But when you analyze the human behavior sometimes this is not possible; specially, when you consider the human being attitude regarding the natural resources conservation.
Man is a depredator of nature. He has a trend to destroy the wealth given by God to humanity.
Two hundred ten years ago, in 1798, a brilliant priest and economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, (1766-1834), in his Essay on the Principle of Population said that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.”
Malthus could not imagine that two centuries after the Climate Change would confirm his theory. Malthus did not know the Climate Change. The Pre Industrial civilization ---the Second Industrial Revolution began at the middle of the XIX century--- was a green and not contaminated world.
But now, almost 210 years after, the facts are confirming that the possibility of producing food for feeding the growing world population is every day less. The Global Warming is affecting the sources of water worldwide. Without water the agriculture development is not possible and the true is that every day the availability of this resource is diminishing in the world.
The World Bank in its World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate Change, warns that “the developing countries would be the most vulnerable by the Climate Change, with permanent reductions in GDP of 4 to 5 per cent for Africa and South Asia.” In the Foreword of the same Report, the President of the Bank, Robert Zoellick assures that “it is crucial that countries reach a Climate Agreement in December in Copenhagen that integrates development needs with climate actions.”
To adopt the measures for resolve the problem of the Climate Change and its consequences is something essential to guarantee the world surviving especially, the future of our sons, grandsons and the next generations.
Man is a depredator of nature. He has a trend to destroy the wealth given by God to humanity.
Two hundred ten years ago, in 1798, a brilliant priest and economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, (1766-1834), in his Essay on the Principle of Population said that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.”
Malthus could not imagine that two centuries after the Climate Change would confirm his theory. Malthus did not know the Climate Change. The Pre Industrial civilization ---the Second Industrial Revolution began at the middle of the XIX century--- was a green and not contaminated world.
But now, almost 210 years after, the facts are confirming that the possibility of producing food for feeding the growing world population is every day less. The Global Warming is affecting the sources of water worldwide. Without water the agriculture development is not possible and the true is that every day the availability of this resource is diminishing in the world.
The World Bank in its World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate Change, warns that “the developing countries would be the most vulnerable by the Climate Change, with permanent reductions in GDP of 4 to 5 per cent for Africa and South Asia.” In the Foreword of the same Report, the President of the Bank, Robert Zoellick assures that “it is crucial that countries reach a Climate Agreement in December in Copenhagen that integrates development needs with climate actions.”
To adopt the measures for resolve the problem of the Climate Change and its consequences is something essential to guarantee the world surviving especially, the future of our sons, grandsons and the next generations.
martes, 1 de septiembre de 2009
Diminishing the CO2 emissions is the great challenge
If the humanity is not able of reducing the dioxide of carbon emissions in too few years a good part of the Earth will become a desert.
The scientists has enough explained the negative effects of the fossil energies use. One of the most important is the glaciers melting worldwide. Already we know the disastrous effects caused by the global warming in the Arctic, in the Antarctic and in the Himalaya Glaciers that nurture the principal rivers of Asia. The same happen in the Andes Glaciers in Latin America.
Practically an important part of those glaciers are quickly disappearing. As consequence of that process, already cities as La Paz, the Bolivia’s capital, is seriously threatened by the lack of water. A similar phenomenon is happening in other regions of the Andes.
Other consequence is the level of the seas augment. The coastal regions worldwide are too threatened by the global warming.
Moreover of the fossil fuel emissions, humanity is affected by other great problem: the forests fire. The last week of August 2009 ---through the international news agencies--we could appreciate the destruction caused in Greece and in California in the United States. But there are too many similar situations ---not reported by the news agencies---in other regions of the world, especially in the Amazonia Region, in Africa and Asia. The struggle against the forests fire should be other important objective of the national governments policies and of the international institutions as United Nations.
The other political necessary measure are the development of new sources of clean energy, to preserve the forests that still survive, to develop a global campaign of reforestation and to save the sources of water, avoiding their contamination.
Pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
The scientists has enough explained the negative effects of the fossil energies use. One of the most important is the glaciers melting worldwide. Already we know the disastrous effects caused by the global warming in the Arctic, in the Antarctic and in the Himalaya Glaciers that nurture the principal rivers of Asia. The same happen in the Andes Glaciers in Latin America.
Practically an important part of those glaciers are quickly disappearing. As consequence of that process, already cities as La Paz, the Bolivia’s capital, is seriously threatened by the lack of water. A similar phenomenon is happening in other regions of the Andes.
Other consequence is the level of the seas augment. The coastal regions worldwide are too threatened by the global warming.
Moreover of the fossil fuel emissions, humanity is affected by other great problem: the forests fire. The last week of August 2009 ---through the international news agencies--we could appreciate the destruction caused in Greece and in California in the United States. But there are too many similar situations ---not reported by the news agencies---in other regions of the world, especially in the Amazonia Region, in Africa and Asia. The struggle against the forests fire should be other important objective of the national governments policies and of the international institutions as United Nations.
The other political necessary measure are the development of new sources of clean energy, to preserve the forests that still survive, to develop a global campaign of reforestation and to save the sources of water, avoiding their contamination.
Pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
lunes, 3 de agosto de 2009
A radical change in the economic theory
The concepts of the book Running Out: How Global Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, (Algora Publishing, New York 2006 and 2008), represents a radical change for the economic theory. The main idea of the book is that the world is facing an unprecedented situation: the global scarcity of natural resources, especially water and petroleum.
The phenomenon already has begun to be visible in many regions of the planet. An oil producer as Indonesia, for example, has exhausted their reserves and had to retire from the OPEC recently.
The oil reserves of the North Sea are in critical situation; the same happen in Mexico and in the United States. The situation of the water reserves is not best. In many regions of the world the water scarcity is already a reality.
The book assures that capital will not be the main scarce factor of production as has been until now. In the near future the natural resources will be the scarce factor of production and this means a complete change for the traditional economics concepts.
The overexploitation of the resources and the contamination of the environment are the causes of the situation.
Only the development of new sources of energy less contaminants, the massive construction of green cars and a policy of reforestation and conservation of the forests that still survive might diminish the impact of the problem. But it is necessary a global effort.
www.pablorafaelgonzalez.com
The phenomenon already has begun to be visible in many regions of the planet. An oil producer as Indonesia, for example, has exhausted their reserves and had to retire from the OPEC recently.
The oil reserves of the North Sea are in critical situation; the same happen in Mexico and in the United States. The situation of the water reserves is not best. In many regions of the world the water scarcity is already a reality.
The book assures that capital will not be the main scarce factor of production as has been until now. In the near future the natural resources will be the scarce factor of production and this means a complete change for the traditional economics concepts.
The overexploitation of the resources and the contamination of the environment are the causes of the situation.
Only the development of new sources of energy less contaminants, the massive construction of green cars and a policy of reforestation and conservation of the forests that still survive might diminish the impact of the problem. But it is necessary a global effort.
www.pablorafaelgonzalez.com
miércoles, 13 de mayo de 2009
Oil price might surpass $ 500 for the year 2012
The oil price might surpass the barrier of $ 500 for the year 2012. For that year the United Kingdom reserves of the North Sea will be in it final stage.
This fact will cause a revolution in the world energy and will show the weakness of our natural resources.
The appreciation on the oil price has a base: the historical behavior of the prices. For example, for the year 1970 the oil price was of hardly more of $ 1 per barrel, but ten years after, in the year 1980, the oil price reached the figure of $ 40. This represented an augment of more of 3,000 per cent in a period of ten years. The prices experimented a sustained trend to the increase in those ten years, but an event, the Sha of Iran fall in the year 1979, accelerated the crisis and the oil price reached in 1980 it major level in the history until then.
If we consider the year 2002 ---after September 11 2002--- as the year of minor prices of the oil ---$ 16 per barrel in December of that year--- and we consider a growth of 3,000 percent for the year 2012, the estimation of a price of $500 has a real sense. Remember that a similar phenomenon already happened between the years 1970 and 1980 as was explained in the previous paragraph.
Nobody can predict the future with precision but the lessons of the history are a true source of knowledgment. The history teaches us that a great jump might occur in the oil price if a fact sufficiently important happens in the market. The figures of the world oil reserves demonstrate that is in the North Sea the place where the oil will finish first. The most important oil companies of the world are aware of this fact, some governments too but they do not recognize it in public form.
A jump in the oil prices of the magnitude considered would cause a real economic crisis with severe implications in the goods and services production worldwide.
The book A Statistical Yearbook 2008, Running Out: How Global Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, (Algora Publishing, New York, 2008) presents a complete vision of the natural resources situation and especially of the petroleum.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
This fact will cause a revolution in the world energy and will show the weakness of our natural resources.
The appreciation on the oil price has a base: the historical behavior of the prices. For example, for the year 1970 the oil price was of hardly more of $ 1 per barrel, but ten years after, in the year 1980, the oil price reached the figure of $ 40. This represented an augment of more of 3,000 per cent in a period of ten years. The prices experimented a sustained trend to the increase in those ten years, but an event, the Sha of Iran fall in the year 1979, accelerated the crisis and the oil price reached in 1980 it major level in the history until then.
If we consider the year 2002 ---after September 11 2002--- as the year of minor prices of the oil ---$ 16 per barrel in December of that year--- and we consider a growth of 3,000 percent for the year 2012, the estimation of a price of $500 has a real sense. Remember that a similar phenomenon already happened between the years 1970 and 1980 as was explained in the previous paragraph.
Nobody can predict the future with precision but the lessons of the history are a true source of knowledgment. The history teaches us that a great jump might occur in the oil price if a fact sufficiently important happens in the market. The figures of the world oil reserves demonstrate that is in the North Sea the place where the oil will finish first. The most important oil companies of the world are aware of this fact, some governments too but they do not recognize it in public form.
A jump in the oil prices of the magnitude considered would cause a real economic crisis with severe implications in the goods and services production worldwide.
The book A Statistical Yearbook 2008, Running Out: How Global Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, (Algora Publishing, New York, 2008) presents a complete vision of the natural resources situation and especially of the petroleum.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
miércoles, 17 de diciembre de 2008
Is the supremacy of the United States in peril?
To begin, I want to say that I believe that the United States is a great country, with an extraordinary population that has played a stellar role in the world. For example, if the United States had not participated in the Second World War today the freedom neither the democracy would exist.
The United States has contributed in an extraordinary form to the world development and for that reason is the first power of the planet, not only since the military point of view but since the political and economic.
However, in the last years, in the horizon have emerged signs that seems demonstrate that the country might be losing part of their influence and power. Is it this true? Until where? Is it false? This essay has as objective that you, the reader, obtain yourself a conclusion on the theme.
The work is divided in two parts; in the first it is presented an international vision of the situation and in the second part is presented an appreciation of some problems that impact the United States internal policy.
First part
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Cold War end, worldwide the main institutions are in a process of deep change. The political, economics, moral and religious institutions are suffering an intense transformation. The United States has not escaped of this process. But the change in the United States is especially important because this country is the first power of the world, and everything that happen in the US affects the rest of the nations.
During the Cold War the powers maintained a permanent state of alert. The competition was not only limited to the military affairs but also to the economics, political, scientist and technologic issues.
However, since the Cold War end the attitude of alert diminished and the programs of national security of the powers began to change too.
This affected other areas as the political and economic as will be demonstrated in the followings paragraphs.
New threat to the peace
The communist threat was replaced by the Muslim terrorist threat that executed their first intense action on September 11 2000 in New York. Since then, the Western World has lived in constant uncertainty.
The reaction to the terrorist act of September 11 was the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. But those war acts brought serious consequences for the United States and the Middle East countries.
Iran intensified their nuclear program that ---obviously--- has the objective of producing nuclear weapons.
Al-Qaeda terrorist group enhanced their actions in the region and maintains the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The clashes between Jewish and Arabs grew during the last years and the hope of peace is very far.
Is the US loosing the political and military battle in the Middle East?
So far, the United States has not been able of to retire their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. On the contrary, recently it was announced that will send 20,000 new soldiers to the last country.
To reach the peace and a stable government in Iraq appear as a very difficult goal.
If the United States withdraws their forces from Iraq and Afghanistan ---without defeat first Al-Qaeda--- there is a real possibility that this group or other extremist groups take the control of these countries governments. If this happen, the consequences for the region and the world peace are unpredictable’s.
What to do then?
The hostility toward the US and the Western World in the Middle East countries has augmented in the last years and this represents a growing risk for the world peace.
Iran will develop their nuke
Without the Russia’s help Iran had not developed their atomic program. And Russia continues helping Iran in this matter. For that reason Iran will achieve their objectives. This demonstrates that the Russian discourse about the control of nuclear weapons is not true.
The sanctions of the United Nations and the United States and European threat are not enough for detaining the Iran nuclear program.
Which is the road?
North Korea blackmail to the US negotiators
North Korea violated the first Agreement of Nuclear Disarmament of 1994. In that opportunity obtained several advantages: financial help, food, petroleum and the promise of the construction of a nuclear plant for electricity.
A new Agreement was signed on February 2008 and again North Korea received petroleum and other advantages but, until now, December 2008, has not carried out the commitment of closing the nuclear facilities.
The political battle in other parts of the world
In the decade of the eighty years, the Prime Minister of England, Margaret Thatcher and the US President, Ronald Regan, adopted a new political economy.
The intensification of the free market policies and the globalization was the core of the new political approach, known as Neoliberalism.
Those ideas were imposed to the rest of the world through the financial institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The Neoliberal policy was not a success. On the contrary, one of their consequences was that nine countries of Latin America ---the majors--- are governed by leftist regimes.
Indeed, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua have leftist governments.
It is necessary to mention the Mexico’s case, where, recently, a leftist candidate, Cuathemoc Cárdenas, lost the election by too few votes. In Mexico, the left is a real option of power.
China is the new competitor
Which would be the attitude of the Chinese leadership might be reflected in the following statement of the general Zhu Chenghu, Dean of the China National University of Defense, who, on July 15 2005 in Beijing, declared to the international journalists the following:
“China must be prepared for attacking the United States with nuclear weapons, if this country support to Taiwan in their independence ambition.”
And he added:
“If the North American employ their missiles against the Chinese territory, China will respond with atomic weapons.”
“China is prepared for the destruction of all their cities at the east of Xian, in the center of the country but, the North Americans must to know that hundreds of their cities will be destroyed by the armed forces of China. The logic of the war imposes that the more weak power does their maximum effort for to defeat to their rival.”
Of course, a day after, the Chinese government assured that it was a personal statement of the general that do not reflect the official policy of the country.
However, it is valid to comment that information’s reveled by the international agencies has assured that in the past China helped to North Korea to develop their nuclear program and that, even, has sold uranium to this country. True? False?
Second part
The US might become a Latin country
This is a metaphor, but something that is not very far of the reality at long term.
In the history, ever the immigration has exerted a double influence: receive the culture of the receptor country and give their culture to the receptor country.
When a minority surpasses the 5 percent of the total population of a country already it is not a minority but an important part of the inhabitants of that country.
Since the political point of view, in a democratic system ---elections--- the five per cent of the population is decisive, especially because the difference between candidates is usually small. Since the economic point of view is also very important. The Latin population in the US is currently estimated in approximately 10% of the total.
In the reality, already it exist states of the United States with a very important presence of Latin Americans: Florida and California, for example. Even, in the first election of the President Bush, the international news agencies highlighted the decisive participation of the minority of Florida Cubans. True? False?
How to resolve the immigration problem is one of the great challenges of the US.
The nuclear security
In the last years, the international press has revealed a chain of facts that reveal how the nuclear security of the United States might be suffering a process of weakening.
The first incident happened in the year 2006, when four electrical fuses for ballistic missile warheads were mistakenly shipped to Taiwan.
The second was in the year 2007 when a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear missiles when it flew between North Dakota and Louisiana bases.
The last incident occurred on May 23 2008 when a fire destroyed part of an underground nuclear launch site in Wyoming.
As it was indicated al the begin of this work, this kind of facts might reveal that since the Cold War end, the nuclear powers has diminished their attention on their nuclear security programs.
The moral crisis, how the gays gain influence
The developed societies face a severe moral crisis. The recognition of the marriages between persons of the same sex is the cherry of the cake.
The problem is that the gay community requests the right of to adopt children. If this is approved ---and please let me to use a metaphor--- in too few years the world will be a world gay, because the sons of these couples will not know what is the right and normal and what not.
The other problem is that this social group request to be accepted without restrictions in the armed forces of the countries, and there are politicians that support this ambition of the gay community. This would be the end of the armed forces.
The corruption has reached even institutions as the Christian and Anglican churches in several countries, with priests involved in sex scandals with children.
Conclusion
These are some facts of the current world reality. What will happen in the future? What do you think? pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
The United States has contributed in an extraordinary form to the world development and for that reason is the first power of the planet, not only since the military point of view but since the political and economic.
However, in the last years, in the horizon have emerged signs that seems demonstrate that the country might be losing part of their influence and power. Is it this true? Until where? Is it false? This essay has as objective that you, the reader, obtain yourself a conclusion on the theme.
The work is divided in two parts; in the first it is presented an international vision of the situation and in the second part is presented an appreciation of some problems that impact the United States internal policy.
First part
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Cold War end, worldwide the main institutions are in a process of deep change. The political, economics, moral and religious institutions are suffering an intense transformation. The United States has not escaped of this process. But the change in the United States is especially important because this country is the first power of the world, and everything that happen in the US affects the rest of the nations.
During the Cold War the powers maintained a permanent state of alert. The competition was not only limited to the military affairs but also to the economics, political, scientist and technologic issues.
However, since the Cold War end the attitude of alert diminished and the programs of national security of the powers began to change too.
This affected other areas as the political and economic as will be demonstrated in the followings paragraphs.
New threat to the peace
The communist threat was replaced by the Muslim terrorist threat that executed their first intense action on September 11 2000 in New York. Since then, the Western World has lived in constant uncertainty.
The reaction to the terrorist act of September 11 was the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. But those war acts brought serious consequences for the United States and the Middle East countries.
Iran intensified their nuclear program that ---obviously--- has the objective of producing nuclear weapons.
Al-Qaeda terrorist group enhanced their actions in the region and maintains the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The clashes between Jewish and Arabs grew during the last years and the hope of peace is very far.
Is the US loosing the political and military battle in the Middle East?
So far, the United States has not been able of to retire their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. On the contrary, recently it was announced that will send 20,000 new soldiers to the last country.
To reach the peace and a stable government in Iraq appear as a very difficult goal.
If the United States withdraws their forces from Iraq and Afghanistan ---without defeat first Al-Qaeda--- there is a real possibility that this group or other extremist groups take the control of these countries governments. If this happen, the consequences for the region and the world peace are unpredictable’s.
What to do then?
The hostility toward the US and the Western World in the Middle East countries has augmented in the last years and this represents a growing risk for the world peace.
Iran will develop their nuke
Without the Russia’s help Iran had not developed their atomic program. And Russia continues helping Iran in this matter. For that reason Iran will achieve their objectives. This demonstrates that the Russian discourse about the control of nuclear weapons is not true.
The sanctions of the United Nations and the United States and European threat are not enough for detaining the Iran nuclear program.
Which is the road?
North Korea blackmail to the US negotiators
North Korea violated the first Agreement of Nuclear Disarmament of 1994. In that opportunity obtained several advantages: financial help, food, petroleum and the promise of the construction of a nuclear plant for electricity.
A new Agreement was signed on February 2008 and again North Korea received petroleum and other advantages but, until now, December 2008, has not carried out the commitment of closing the nuclear facilities.
The political battle in other parts of the world
In the decade of the eighty years, the Prime Minister of England, Margaret Thatcher and the US President, Ronald Regan, adopted a new political economy.
The intensification of the free market policies and the globalization was the core of the new political approach, known as Neoliberalism.
Those ideas were imposed to the rest of the world through the financial institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The Neoliberal policy was not a success. On the contrary, one of their consequences was that nine countries of Latin America ---the majors--- are governed by leftist regimes.
Indeed, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua have leftist governments.
It is necessary to mention the Mexico’s case, where, recently, a leftist candidate, Cuathemoc Cárdenas, lost the election by too few votes. In Mexico, the left is a real option of power.
China is the new competitor
Which would be the attitude of the Chinese leadership might be reflected in the following statement of the general Zhu Chenghu, Dean of the China National University of Defense, who, on July 15 2005 in Beijing, declared to the international journalists the following:
“China must be prepared for attacking the United States with nuclear weapons, if this country support to Taiwan in their independence ambition.”
And he added:
“If the North American employ their missiles against the Chinese territory, China will respond with atomic weapons.”
“China is prepared for the destruction of all their cities at the east of Xian, in the center of the country but, the North Americans must to know that hundreds of their cities will be destroyed by the armed forces of China. The logic of the war imposes that the more weak power does their maximum effort for to defeat to their rival.”
Of course, a day after, the Chinese government assured that it was a personal statement of the general that do not reflect the official policy of the country.
However, it is valid to comment that information’s reveled by the international agencies has assured that in the past China helped to North Korea to develop their nuclear program and that, even, has sold uranium to this country. True? False?
Second part
The US might become a Latin country
This is a metaphor, but something that is not very far of the reality at long term.
In the history, ever the immigration has exerted a double influence: receive the culture of the receptor country and give their culture to the receptor country.
When a minority surpasses the 5 percent of the total population of a country already it is not a minority but an important part of the inhabitants of that country.
Since the political point of view, in a democratic system ---elections--- the five per cent of the population is decisive, especially because the difference between candidates is usually small. Since the economic point of view is also very important. The Latin population in the US is currently estimated in approximately 10% of the total.
In the reality, already it exist states of the United States with a very important presence of Latin Americans: Florida and California, for example. Even, in the first election of the President Bush, the international news agencies highlighted the decisive participation of the minority of Florida Cubans. True? False?
How to resolve the immigration problem is one of the great challenges of the US.
The nuclear security
In the last years, the international press has revealed a chain of facts that reveal how the nuclear security of the United States might be suffering a process of weakening.
The first incident happened in the year 2006, when four electrical fuses for ballistic missile warheads were mistakenly shipped to Taiwan.
The second was in the year 2007 when a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear missiles when it flew between North Dakota and Louisiana bases.
The last incident occurred on May 23 2008 when a fire destroyed part of an underground nuclear launch site in Wyoming.
As it was indicated al the begin of this work, this kind of facts might reveal that since the Cold War end, the nuclear powers has diminished their attention on their nuclear security programs.
The moral crisis, how the gays gain influence
The developed societies face a severe moral crisis. The recognition of the marriages between persons of the same sex is the cherry of the cake.
The problem is that the gay community requests the right of to adopt children. If this is approved ---and please let me to use a metaphor--- in too few years the world will be a world gay, because the sons of these couples will not know what is the right and normal and what not.
The other problem is that this social group request to be accepted without restrictions in the armed forces of the countries, and there are politicians that support this ambition of the gay community. This would be the end of the armed forces.
The corruption has reached even institutions as the Christian and Anglican churches in several countries, with priests involved in sex scandals with children.
Conclusion
These are some facts of the current world reality. What will happen in the future? What do you think? pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com
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