Which is the future of the Western culture? How China will dominate the global economy and how the Islam will dominate Europe

The answer to those questions is very simple: a) Because the Western’s entrepreneurs are closing their factories in their countries and moving the production toward China and other Asian’s nations and b) Because of the growing migration of Islamists citizens toward Europe.

a)      The Western’s entrepreneurs close their factories for saving costs and obtaining more money. They keep their patents and brands but the production is realized by the workers of China and other countries where the workers do not receive appropriate wages neither working rights. In those nations exists a modern form of slavery that is used by the avarice of some entrepreneurs. For example, in some regions the wage of an important proportion of workers is not superior to $120 by month working 30 days by month. The consequence of this situation is that at mid and long term China and other Asian nations will have the total control of an important part of the world production of goods and services and, in consequence, of the world economy.

b)      The other objective fact is the demographic transition in Europe; this is the low birth rate of the native population and the expectancy of live increase of the elder people, by a side, and by the other, the growing augment of the Islamic citizen’s migration toward Europe; this fact constitute a severe risk of cultural clash that threat the European's  nations survival at mid and long term.

What do you think? 

¿Cuál es el futuro de la cultura occidental? Cómo China dominará la economía global y cómo el Islam dominará Europa

La respuesta a esas preguntas es muy simple:

a) Porque los empresarios occidentales están cerrando sus fábricas en sus países de origen trasladando la producción hacia China y otras naciones del Asia y b) por la creciente migración de ciudadanos de los países islámicos hacia Europa.

a) Los empresarios occidentales cierran sus fábricas en occidente para ahorrar en costos de mano de obra y ganar más dinero. Ellos conservan las patentes y marcas de sus productos pero la producción la realizan trabajadores chinos y de otros países donde los trabajadores no gozan de salarios apropiados ni de derechos laborales. En esas naciones se practica una forma de moderna esclavitud que es aprovechada por la avaricia de algunos empresarios. Por ejemplo, en algunas regiones una importante proporción de trabajadores gana alrededor de 120 dólares por mes y trabajan los 30 días del mes. La consecuencia de esta situación es que, a mediano y largo plazo, China y los países del Asia tendrán el total control de una parte muy importante de la producción mundial de bienes y servicios y, en consecuencia, el control de la economía mundial.

b)  El otro hecho objetivo es la transición demográfica que sucede en Europa, es decir, la baja tasa de natalidad de la población nativa y el aumento de la expectativa de vida de los ciudadanos mayores, por una parte,  y el aumento creciente de las migraciones de ciudadanos islámicos hacia Europa, lo cual trae como consecuencia un choque de culturas que amenaza la supervivencia a largo plazo de las naciones europeas.

¿Qué piensa usted?

By lack of water China might increase their cereals imports

Asia -the most populated continent of the world- suffers the consequences of the earth resources overexploitation. A clear example of it is what happens with the underground waters and the China Rivers that irrigate good part of the agricultural lands. Those sources of water present a process of exhaustion that put in danger the agricultural production and might obey at China to increase their imports of food, specifically grains, since might be not able to satisfy their population's demand. This phenomenon already was observed in the Chinese society and was one of the reasons that motivated in 1995 the exports reduction of grains toward North Korea. When China interrupted the sale of grains to North Korea this country didn't have another alternative but requesting international help to the United Nations.

A restitution of the help in foods to North Korea by China seems not very probable since this country continues confronting serious production problems derived of the shortage of the most important inputs for the agricultural production as the water. An example is what happens in the Yellow River that had lost their flow and already doesn't reach the sea. In the year 1996 the River was dry during 133 days while in 1997 remained dry during 226 days. The County of Shandong is the last route of the river before arriving to the sea. This county produces good part of the corn and of the wheat and it has been seriously affected as consequence of the river drought.

What happens with the Yellow River also passes with other important rivers of China and with the more and more scarce underground sources of water. It is considered that China has around of 50,000 kilometers of rivers of certain magnitude and 80% of them are degraded and are not capable for the fishing, due to the contamination that receives. The Yellow River, for example, is polluted of heavy metals and other toxic matters that impede its use for human consumption and irrigation in good part of its route.

The decrease of the China capacity for producing foods will generate an important impact in the world economy, since will look those foods in the international markets causing the increase of its prices. The poor’s countries are not in capacity of resisting an increment in the price of the foods, they would not have how to pay the new prices and, in consequence, they would be in front of a true problem of survival. If the countries with more population as China and India diminish their foods production capacity, the world situation will be aggravated. India, the other giant of the world suffers a similar situation and should use very important part of the energy that produce to pump water of the underground.

World experts estimated that China would have enough water for few years more; this means that would have to import a good parte of their necessities of cereals. If this happen, the impact for the politics and the world economy would be very important.

The natural resources future

In the developed world, North America, Western Europe and Japan, for the majority of the people are not yet perceivable, at first, the signs of a natural resources crisis, but it is a latent process, a developing process that very soon will be felt globally.

An inhabitant of New York, Washington, London or Paris, possibly does not know what not having water for one or two days per week or for a long period of time is. Probably he doesn’t know what electricity restrictions are like; but in other regions of the world these types of limitations are something common or frequent.
Nevertheless, the situation in the developed countries has begun to change and already it exist regions and states in the United States where has been declared the water emergency supply and where also there are problems with the electricity supply.

You, the reader of this essay, perhaps have a doubt and ask yourself if really there is a worldwide crisis of natural resources.

The answer is yes.

Which resources?

There is a crisis of oil, water, food and electricity.

How may be it demonstrated?

The best prove of the natural resources crisis is the price increase of these commodities.

The price of a good reflects its abundance or its scarcity.
In the years 2007 and 2008, the evidence of the natural resources crisis was clearer than in other years:

- The oil price surpassed US$ 90 in October 2007 and two month later, on February Tuesday 19 2008, the West Intermediate Texas reached US $ 100.10 in the New York market; on March Monday 3 the price touched US$ 103.95, passing the barrier of April 1980, that adjusted by inflation was for March 2008 US$ 103.76. The race of prices continued on March 2008 and on Monday 13 the West Texas Intermediate went to US$ 107.
On Friday May 16 2008, the Light Sweet Crude for June delivery reached US $ 126.20 in the New York Market Exchange. In July 2008 reached their maximum level, over $140. As a consequence of the financial crisis and the recession the oil price dropped during the first months of the year 2009 but already has begun to increase over $70 in the last months of the year 2009.

- The wheat price and the price of other cereals reached a record;
- The food price in general grew in an important percentage;
- “Over the past five years, municipal water rates have increased an average of 27% in the United States, 32% in the United Kingdom, 45% in Australia, 50% in South Africa and 58% in Canada.” - (1)
The electricity price registered the same trend; between the year 1990 and the year 2000 the electricity rates in the United States increased in an average of 5.23%but between the year 2000 and 2005 the enhance average was 26.25%, five hundred per cent more. (2)

Until now, first decade of the 21st century, the crisis due to water shortage has been limited to specific regions of Latin America, Africa and Asia and has not had a sufficiently important impact to have the attention of the big world-wide mass media nor of the governments of the developed countries. The same has happened with the oil crises, which only have generated increases in the prices of crude and its derivates but without affecting the availability or the supply of these products, except in the 1973 crisis, when the Arab countries decided to suspend their exports towards the United States and other nations of the West.

We can say then, that in spite of the oil crises which have lifted the prices, the inhabitants of the developed nations have always had abundance of derivatives of petroleum, gasoline, diesel, oil, lubricants and other products and this fact has contributed to create the illusion of the existence of infinite reserves, but this is not true.

But the situation of apparent abundance will change very soon as a result of two facts: the over-exploitation of the natural resources and the contamination. Water will be the most appreciated good and in second place will be petroleum, since these two resources are every day scarcer, as it can be verified when considering the evolution of the contamination processes, deforestation and blighting at world-wide level and analyzing the behavior of the oil reserves. The pollution increased by the emissions of carbon dioxide and other elements that contribute to the global warming, the extinction of numerous species, the contamination of waters of the seas, rivers and lagoons and the nuclear tests, among other elements, constitute a serious threat to life.

The aggression to the environment will have an immediate effect and it will be reflected in the reduction of natural resources availability and also in the diminishment of the food supply. At the same time it will also cause an increase of the conflicts among the countries and within the nations.

The intense fight for the natural resources hence will be the main characteristic of the international policy in the next years to come and this will not only generate important geo strategic and geopolitical changes, but also it will be a determinant factor for the War or the Peace in the 21st Century.

Other important nations, like China and India, the most populated countries in the world, have in front of them the perspective of a great burden due to the water crisis, while the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and Norway, among others countries, will see their petroleum reserves reduced drastically.

That, in general, is the international situation in the first decade of the 21st century. The territorial problems related to the problems of shortage of natural resources, constitute the main cause of the conflicts.

(1)Earth Policy Institute, March 7, 2007. “Water Prices Rising Worldwide,” by Edwin H. Clark II http://www.earth-policy.org/updates/2007/updated 64.htm
(2)Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 2006 table 8.10 page 257.

Why the Communism did not survive, political economy theory

Capitalism survived because it was able of adopting radical measures taken from its ideological antagonism: Socialism; a contradiction itself.

It can not be denied that the New Deal of President Franklyn D. Roosevelt during the thirties and forties years of the twentieth century was a combination of liberal and socialism measures that promoted the intervention of the state in the most important social and economic activities of North America. This intervention of the state made possible for Capitalism to survive in this country. If you analyze each one of the policies of the New Deal you will verify that most of them were interventionist policies.

The intervention of the state was the vaccine that saved the Capitalism in the thirties and in the other crisis that this system has suffered since then. And what is a vaccine?

A vaccine is a product obtained from the same virus which eventually destroys.
Well, the Capitalism obtained the vaccine that saved itself from the virus of the Socialism, applying Socialist measures in the economy and in the society.

Orthodox Soviets leaders were not able to understand this reality and for that reason the Soviet Union collapsed in the eighties. If the Soviet leaders would had applied the same principle and had used Capitalism measures, perhaps the Soviet Union would had survived. But, on the contrary, they radicalized the Communism and the system could not resist. Chinese leaders understood this reality many years ago, and after Mao Tse Tung die in the seventies they applied a new method to guarantee the survival of their communist system. The Chinese leaders have applied the contradictory method that their Soviet colleagues were not able to accomplish. China is formally a Communist country but with liberal economic institutions open to the global economy and this has preserved the Chinese regime. How is this contradiction possible?

Theoretically it is not possible but in the reality it works. This demonstrates that sometimes there is a great difference between the theory and the reality.
The effect of this contradiction that occurs in the reality deserves to be deeply studied by politicians and economists worldwide.

North Korea and Iran work together and might provoke the III World War

North Korea and Iran work together. On Thursday May 21, 2009 Iran announced the test of a new missile able of to reach Israel and the South of Europe. Three days after, on Sunday May 24, 2009 North Korea made it second nuclear test, detonating a powerful bomb in its territory.
This is not the first time that this situation occurs. On February 3, 2009 something similar happened. In that opportunity, North Korea announced that would deploy in orbit it first satellite. The same day February 3, Iran launched with success it first self-constructed satellite.
The technology for building a satellite is more complex than the technology for made a ballistic missile. This means that Iran and North Korea are already able of to reach objectives in the continental territory of the United States and Europe.
Iran and North Korea seems to be disposed to continue their nuclear programs and the construction of an important ballistic missile capacity.
If these countries develop the technology for setting nuclear heads on their missiles, the world peace will be in true peril. The technological advances gotten by Iran and North Korea until now let predict that these countries will obtain that capacity very soon.
The great problem is that those countries receive the technological and military help of the other two superpowers, Russia and China. China gave it help to North Korea and Russia to Iran. This reveals that there is not sincerity in the public positions of these countries. Because by a side they talk about peace and non proliferation of nuclear weapons but by the other side they give technological nuclear help to other countries as North Korea and Iran. For that reason the Security Council of the United Nations can not getting a more strong position in the theme.

pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com

Is the supremacy of the United States in peril?

To begin, I want to say that I believe that the United States is a great country, with an extraordinary population that has played a stellar role in the world. For example, if the United States had not participated in the Second World War today the freedom neither the democracy would exist.
The United States has contributed in an extraordinary form to the world development and for that reason is the first power of the planet, not only since the military point of view but since the political and economic.
However, in the last years, in the horizon have emerged signs that seems demonstrate that the country might be losing part of their influence and power. Is it this true? Until where? Is it false? This essay has as objective that you, the reader, obtain yourself a conclusion on the theme.
The work is divided in two parts; in the first it is presented an international vision of the situation and in the second part is presented an appreciation of some problems that impact the United States internal policy.
First part
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Cold War end, worldwide the main institutions are in a process of deep change. The political, economics, moral and religious institutions are suffering an intense transformation. The United States has not escaped of this process. But the change in the United States is especially important because this country is the first power of the world, and everything that happen in the US affects the rest of the nations.
During the Cold War the powers maintained a permanent state of alert. The competition was not only limited to the military affairs but also to the economics, political, scientist and technologic issues.
However, since the Cold War end the attitude of alert diminished and the programs of national security of the powers began to change too.
This affected other areas as the political and economic as will be demonstrated in the followings paragraphs.
New threat to the peace
The communist threat was replaced by the Muslim terrorist threat that executed their first intense action on September 11 2000 in New York. Since then, the Western World has lived in constant uncertainty.
The reaction to the terrorist act of September 11 was the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. But those war acts brought serious consequences for the United States and the Middle East countries.
Iran intensified their nuclear program that ---obviously--- has the objective of producing nuclear weapons.
Al-Qaeda terrorist group enhanced their actions in the region and maintains the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The clashes between Jewish and Arabs grew during the last years and the hope of peace is very far.
Is the US loosing the political and military battle in the Middle East?
So far, the United States has not been able of to retire their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. On the contrary, recently it was announced that will send 20,000 new soldiers to the last country.
To reach the peace and a stable government in Iraq appear as a very difficult goal.
If the United States withdraws their forces from Iraq and Afghanistan ---without defeat first Al-Qaeda--- there is a real possibility that this group or other extremist groups take the control of these countries governments. If this happen, the consequences for the region and the world peace are unpredictable’s.
What to do then?
The hostility toward the US and the Western World in the Middle East countries has augmented in the last years and this represents a growing risk for the world peace.
Iran will develop their nuke
Without the Russia’s help Iran had not developed their atomic program. And Russia continues helping Iran in this matter. For that reason Iran will achieve their objectives. This demonstrates that the Russian discourse about the control of nuclear weapons is not true.
The sanctions of the United Nations and the United States and European threat are not enough for detaining the Iran nuclear program.
Which is the road?
North Korea blackmail to the US negotiators
North Korea violated the first Agreement of Nuclear Disarmament of 1994. In that opportunity obtained several advantages: financial help, food, petroleum and the promise of the construction of a nuclear plant for electricity.
A new Agreement was signed on February 2008 and again North Korea received petroleum and other advantages but, until now, December 2008, has not carried out the commitment of closing the nuclear facilities.
The political battle in other parts of the world
In the decade of the eighty years, the Prime Minister of England, Margaret Thatcher and the US President, Ronald Regan, adopted a new political economy.
The intensification of the free market policies and the globalization was the core of the new political approach, known as Neoliberalism.
Those ideas were imposed to the rest of the world through the financial institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The Neoliberal policy was not a success. On the contrary, one of their consequences was that nine countries of Latin America ---the majors--- are governed by leftist regimes.
Indeed, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua have leftist governments.
It is necessary to mention the Mexico’s case, where, recently, a leftist candidate, Cuathemoc Cárdenas, lost the election by too few votes. In Mexico, the left is a real option of power.
China is the new competitor
Which would be the attitude of the Chinese leadership might be reflected in the following statement of the general Zhu Chenghu, Dean of the China National University of Defense, who, on July 15 2005 in Beijing, declared to the international journalists the following:
“China must be prepared for attacking the United States with nuclear weapons, if this country support to Taiwan in their independence ambition.”
And he added:
“If the North American employ their missiles against the Chinese territory, China will respond with atomic weapons.”
“China is prepared for the destruction of all their cities at the east of Xian, in the center of the country but, the North Americans must to know that hundreds of their cities will be destroyed by the armed forces of China. The logic of the war imposes that the more weak power does their maximum effort for to defeat to their rival.”
Of course, a day after, the Chinese government assured that it was a personal statement of the general that do not reflect the official policy of the country.
However, it is valid to comment that information’s reveled by the international agencies has assured that in the past China helped to North Korea to develop their nuclear program and that, even, has sold uranium to this country. True? False?
Second part
The US might become a Latin country
This is a metaphor, but something that is not very far of the reality at long term.
In the history, ever the immigration has exerted a double influence: receive the culture of the receptor country and give their culture to the receptor country.
When a minority surpasses the 5 percent of the total population of a country already it is not a minority but an important part of the inhabitants of that country.
Since the political point of view, in a democratic system ---elections--- the five per cent of the population is decisive, especially because the difference between candidates is usually small. Since the economic point of view is also very important. The Latin population in the US is currently estimated in approximately 10% of the total.
In the reality, already it exist states of the United States with a very important presence of Latin Americans: Florida and California, for example. Even, in the first election of the President Bush, the international news agencies highlighted the decisive participation of the minority of Florida Cubans. True? False?
How to resolve the immigration problem is one of the great challenges of the US.
The nuclear security
In the last years, the international press has revealed a chain of facts that reveal how the nuclear security of the United States might be suffering a process of weakening.
The first incident happened in the year 2006, when four electrical fuses for ballistic missile warheads were mistakenly shipped to Taiwan.
The second was in the year 2007 when a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear missiles when it flew between North Dakota and Louisiana bases.
The last incident occurred on May 23 2008 when a fire destroyed part of an underground nuclear launch site in Wyoming.
As it was indicated al the begin of this work, this kind of facts might reveal that since the Cold War end, the nuclear powers has diminished their attention on their nuclear security programs.
The moral crisis, how the gays gain influence
The developed societies face a severe moral crisis. The recognition of the marriages between persons of the same sex is the cherry of the cake.
The problem is that the gay community requests the right of to adopt children. If this is approved ---and please let me to use a metaphor--- in too few years the world will be a world gay, because the sons of these couples will not know what is the right and normal and what not.
The other problem is that this social group request to be accepted without restrictions in the armed forces of the countries, and there are politicians that support this ambition of the gay community. This would be the end of the armed forces.
The corruption has reached even institutions as the Christian and Anglican churches in several countries, with priests involved in sex scandals with children.
Conclusion
These are some facts of the current world reality. What will happen in the future? What do you think? pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com