Political economy, food and population projections

Is able the Earth of to double the food production in the coming years?
That is the key question that some politicians, researchers and people linked to the agriculture have made themselves in the last months; the reason? An announcement made by the FAO food chief, Jacques Diouf on January 26 2009 during an international conference on food security in Madrid.
Jacques Diouf said that “…We face the challenge now of not only ensuring food for the 973 million who are currently hungry, but also ensuring there is food for nine billion people in 2050. We will need to double global food production by 2050…”
According with The Guardian of London in information of the journalist Juliette Jowit on April 19 2010, the Soil Association of the United Kingdom published a study with the title “The big fat lie about doubling food production,” where criticize the projection and assure that their origin is a FAO report of June 2006 entitled World Agriculture towards 2030/2050.
The Guardian informs that the Soil Association assures that “…The forecast increase needed in production would be closer to 70% by 2050…” and that “…The UK government has said that the difference between 100% and 70% is not trivial because it is more than the food production of the whole American continent…”
Nobody can predict the future with precision
I would like to comment an anecdote that I lived many years ago. In that time I was director of an area in the planning office of my country and helped a student to get a grant to study in one of the most advanced North Americans universities. I advised him to pay special attention to the planning subjects. One year after he came back and said to me: the studies have been excellent but I want to tell you something that perhaps will be disappointing. And he told me that one of his professors, a Nobel Laureate, said to him and to the rest of the pupils that the planning is possible only at short term, because the world change everyday to an unbelievable speed and for that reason is not possible to make plans at long term.
I did not forget the concept. In the following years I felt a great attraction by the philosophy and I could understand better what the professor wanted to express to his pupils. Indeed, the changes, sometimes radical and unexpected changes, are the essence of the live and they affect the possibilities of forecast at long term. It is true that there is a statistic reality, trends that we can to verify in the facts, but they are only tendencies that can change in any moment. I will give only one example in the following question:
Who could predict twenty years ago that twenty years after a young leader like Barack Obama would be the president of the United States?
The projections
The studies of the international agencies sometimes present contradictory information. The reason is, perhaps, that that information is gathered and interpreted by different people with different visions of a same phenomenon.
Observe you the three following paragraphs of the FAO document World Agriculture towards 2015/2030; the quotes belong to the Executive Summary:
“…There are three main sources of growth in crop production: expanding the land area, increasing the frequencies with which it is cropped (often through irrigation), and boosting yields. It has suggested that we may be approaching the ceiling of what is possible for all three sources…”
But in the same section says the following:
“…At global level there is adequate unused potential farmland. A comparison of soils, terrains and climates which the needs of major crops suggest that an extra 2.8 billion ha are suitable in varying degrees for the rain fed production on arable and permanent crops. This is almost twice as much as currently farmed. However, only a fraction of this extra land is realistically available for agricultural expansion in the foreseeable future, as much as needed to preserve forest cover and to support infrastructural development…”
And after it assure:
“…More than half the land that could be opened up is in just seven countries of tropical Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, whereas other regions and countries face a shortage of suitable land. In the Near East and North Africa, 87 percent of suitable land was already being farmed in 1977-99 while in South Asia the figure is no less than 94 per cent. In these regions, intensification through improved management and technologies will be the main, indeed virtually the only source of production growth. In many places land degradation threatens the productivity of existing farmland and pasture…” End of the quotes.
It is evident the contradiction between the first and third paragraphs and the second one.
Then the question is:
Is there or not enough water and expanding area for agricultural production?
The agricultural lands of Europe, Asia and part of Africa have been exploited by thousands of years and most of them are already exhausted; Egypt, for example, where the historians consider that the agriculture began. The lands of America have been also exploited but in less intensity and proportion; hence some of them are still a potential reserve.
The problem is that the agricultural exploitation means deforestation and a great damage to the environment. For example, since the sixty years of the 20th century ---before the region was closed for strangers--- the Amazon region has been destroyed, mainly, by the farmers, the lumberjacks and the miners. The great problem is that the Amazon area is vital for the environment sustainability of the planet. That is the last ecological reserve that survives in the world.
As a result of the expressed the other key question is:
Which are the tropical Latin American and Sub-Saharan seven countries that the FAO consider could be open to new developments in the agriculture?
How that development will affect the environment and the global sustainability?
Restricted possibilities
If you consider the reality of the planet presented by the own FAO, you will confirm that there are restricted possibilities of the agricultural expansion. The limitation in matter of land and water are a true. The FAO’s experts know and cope that true better than the rest of the world citizens but, perhaps, they can not recognize it publicly; notwithstanding, sometimes, in official papers as the quoted in the previous paragraphs, they do clear mention of that reality.
Why to hide the perspectives?
Everybody wait miracles in all the issues of the live. You expect your miracles I, the governments and the rest of the people too. Everybody wait a change, a good change. The hope of miracles feed the live of the people. Hence nobody want to see negative perspectives and anticipate measures for tackle them. Perhaps that would be an answer.
But to hide or to not recognize the true does not change the true. The governments and the international official agencies have the duty of to warn about the perspectives and to make the recommendations for a best future.
What is the most important?
The question that head this work is the most important:
Is able the Earth of to double the food production in the coming years?
The answer is in the hands of the scientists, the politicians, economists and the people linked to the agriculture: farmers and entrepreneurs, among others.
The true is that the world will need to increase the food production in an important amount to attend the growth population of the coming years. In this moment it does not matter if is 100 percent or 70 percent; the true is that any of them is an enormous quantity.
The perspectives of the world population are the base for the food estimations.

The FAO consider that the world population will reach the peak of 9 billion of inhabitants for the year 2050 and estimates that since that moment will not have growth at global level. In the Overview ---page 3--- of the World Agriculture towards 2030/2050, they explain the forecast of zero population growth for the year 2050 as “…the net result of continuing increases in some countries compensated by declines in others…”
But they assure after that “…zero population growth at global level will not automatically translate into zero growth in demand and cessation of building-up pressures on resources and the wider environment…”
Conclusion
The great problem is how to arrive to the year 2050; how to produce the food that the population will require, in a scenario of water shortage worldwide, overexploitation of the land and growing contamination.
First of all it is necessary to recognize and to say the true at the world.
It is necessary an integral effort of many sectors, among them, the science, the technology, the political economy, the demography, the politicians, the farmers and the entrepreneurs, for giving answers to those issues. The demographers have an especial responsibility. They must be listened by the political leaders and other researchers.
Which is your opinion?

Political economy, the first objective of the science and technology should be to conquer the Earth

In the last century man has obtained a great advance in science and technology; one of the best examples of that progress is the spatial career. Man is conquering the exterior space but, ironically, still he has not conquered the Earth.
On April 15, 2010 a report of BBC News signed by the journalist Jonathan Amos, assured that the President of the United States, Barack Obama, announced that “it should be possible to send astronauts to orbit the planet Mars by the mid-2030s and return them safely; a landing on Mars will follow…”
This announce reveals the great development reached until now by the science and technology but it is a good opportunity also for to reflect about the challenges that man has not resolved yet.
The first objective of the science and technology should be to conquer the Earth. There are four key fields where a most effort might be made:
1. Agriculture development.
2. Environment protection.
3. How conciliate the technology and the need of create new jobs.
4. Defeat of the illnesses.
Those are critical areas where the science and technology would help to improve the quality of live of the people, especially in the underdeveloped nations, where is concentrated the world population.
1. The agriculture development encompasses some basic tasks, like the followings:
a) To reduce the consumption of water because is in this productive sector where the consumption is most.
b) To increase the crops yields and the production of food.
c) To guarantee a best and fair distribution of the food production to benefit especially at the poorest and hunger population of the world.
2. The environment protection encompasses:
a) To reduce the desertification phenomenon and to preserve the forests.
b) How to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions especially in the coal and petroleum industry. In this sense the experience of Norway in their North Sea oil fields is very important because they have reduced their emissions of CO2 in 40 percent of the global average. That example might be considered by the industry in other places of the world.
c) What to do for avoid the oil spills in the oceans that cause a severe damage to the environment.
d) How to improve the methods for the nuclear garbage and the industrial waste disposal.
e) How create new methods for a best use of the energy sources.
3. The creation of new jobs encompasses:
a) To identify those activities where may be created the most number of jobs and to carry out them. This is one of the most sensible areas because of the reduction of the employments in the world as a consequence of the substitution of the workers by machines.
4. The defeat of the illnesses encompasses:
a) To make possible the access of the total world population to the health resources.
b) To advance in the scientific research to find the cure of the most graves illnesses.
c) To spread information about the advances of the science in the discovering of new medicines and curative methods. The human beings have the right of to know those discovering. There are people that assure that the medicine and the pharmaceutical industry have the remedy for some illnesses but that they do not present those medicines because their business would result affected. I do not believe that that is true but, in any case, the commercial interest should not be the most important. I think that, on the contrary, the pharmaceutical industry and the health sector might obtain the same or perhaps most benefits if the discovery of new curative and preventive medicines and procedures be developed.
Definition
According with the OECD Frascat Manual, fifth edition, 1993, paragraph 20, page 5, quoted by STATS.OECD, “…Scientific and technological innovation may be considered as the transformation of an idea into a new or improved product introduced on the market, into a new or improved operational process used in industry and commerce, or into a new approach to a social service…”
Origin of the progress
The innovation is the base of the human progress. But the innovation is linked to the level of education of the nations. A person may have a natural capacity but that is not enough. The natural vocation must be complemented with the formal knowledge. The developed nations reached that level of scientific and technological advance because they had an important amount of creators, people with natural intellectual abilities and a great research capacity.
Many factors influence the intellectual capacity. One of the most important is the quality and quantity of food available in each country and their distribution between the people. In an impoverished country with food scarcity it is very difficult the biological and intellectual development of the population. In change, in the countries with abundance of food is different.
The developed countries have had abundance of food. The underdeveloped nations have had restrictions in this sense. This explains the difference in the level of progress between both.
So that for the construction of a best world, first of all, it is necessary to develop a solid agriculture for producing and distributing the food that the human beings need to live. Without food nothing is possible; for that reason the first priority of the world should be the production and fair distribution of food.
Wealth and knowledge distribution
Until now the distribution of the scientific and technological knowledge has followed the same pattern of the wealth distribution. For breaking that circle it is necessary a great effort. The creation of new institutions of research in the underdeveloped nations is very important. The support to the individual researchers is too very positive. It is necessary to develop a mechanism for to spread the ideas of the unknown creators, because in any mind and in place of the world might be a good idea, something that may help the progress of humanity.
Number of researchers
According with the World Bank, World Development Indicators 2010, Finland is the country with major number of researchers per million of people, followed by Iceland, Sweden, Japan and Singapore as you can see in the table.

The figures confirm that the most developed nations concentrate the most number of the world researchers; by group of nations the Nordic countries are the main.
In the next table you can appreciate the contrast between the most advanced nations and the Latin American countries.

That is the reality that should be modified; the underdeveloped nations should increase the number of their researchers and direct its attention to those problems that most affect those countries. It is the local solution of the problems a way for the global advance of humanity. The regions or countries might create their own scientific and technological methods for to resolve their own problems. Of course, the paper of the global science and technology is something essential, but should exist too the appropriate local or regional contribution.
Cultural duality
It is the coexistence of the most advanced scientific and technological advances with the most precarious and savages forms of live. If you visit some regions of the world you can appreciate that duality. For example some tribes of the Amazonian regions still live in the Stone Age but in those regions you can find, in turn, instruments of the modern civilization.
There are also educated and apparently civilized people that, nonetheless, in their attitudes and mind still live in the Stone Age.
Conclusion
Man is conquering the space but still he has not conquered the Earth. Three big problems deserve the attention of the world leaders: the poverty, the lack or scarcity of natural resources and the damage to the environment. They are politics, economics, scientific and technological problems. The political economy might give a very important contribution but the science and technology must provide the other part. There are concrete problems that need answer: the water scarcity, the pollution, the nuclear, industrial and cities waste disposal, the destruction of the forests, the desertification, the hunger, the poverty and the unemployment.
The objective of the sciences must be the human beings happiness.
What do you think?

Political economy and environment

The pattern of consumption followed until now by the world economy has been based in the intense use of the natural resources and technologies for displace the workers.
By force of the reality that situation will have to change; the reason is very simple: the natural resources are every day more scarcely and the contamination everyday also grows. A new pattern of production and employment will have to be created as a consequence of this situation.
The new technology
One of the big challenges of the modern science and technology is to develop a new model of production less contaminant and a model of employment for to balance the requirements of the technologic development and the social need of creating new jobs.
According with the World Bank 2009 World Development Indicators, page 127, “Energy-related carbon dioxide now accounts for 61-65 per cent of global green house gas emissions…”
These emissions are a serious threat for nature and the human live. The scientists consider that those gases are the cause of the global warming and their consequences, among them, the oceans level increase, changes in the patterns of rain that affects the agriculture and an augment of the natural disasters like intense floods, droughts, storms, hurricanes, among other events.
In the following table you can appreciate the principal generators of carbon dioxide. Table 1

The figures confirm that are the United States and China the top generators of carbon dioxide. The comparison between 1990 and 2005 put in evidence the great growth of China in only fifteen years, country which gases emissions are now very near of the United States level.
The emissions of United States and China are something extraordinary that can not be compared with the rest of the countries. The Russian Federation that in the past was the third generator of carbon dioxide emissions now, in the year 2005, is very far with 1,544 millions of metric tons.
These figures reveal that the future of humanity is in the hands of the leaders of the two powers of the world, United States and China; if they do not adopt effective measures for diminishing these emissions the damage to the entire planet everyday will be worse.
The great problem is how conciliate the economic growth with the environment. If the politicians adopt a clear decision in this matter, the scientists will find ways for make friendlier the production. But the most important is the political decision. Until now the advances has been precarious because it has not had a determinant political decision of the principal leaders of the United States and China.
Fossil fuels impact
The substitution of the petroleum is not possible, among other reasons, because of their energetic intensity that can not be reached by other similar sources. Nevertheless, the technology might create new machines able of reducing the consumption and the level of pollution.
In the transport sector the tests with hydrogen and other sources has been a success but they can not eliminate the oil. The true then is that the world have not other option but to exist side by side with the petroleum for many years more. It is important to say that the situation is difficult because the petroleum is running out in many regions of the world and too few countries will concentrate the most reserves.
In parallel, the international agencies and the governments can adopt effective environmental policies, like a Global Program of Reforestation that moreover of creating millions of new jobs would reduce the global warming.
The effects of the deforestation in global scale are something of great magnitude. In the next table you can see it.

Table 2

Brazil is in the top of the list. This means that the Amazonia is in the first place. The Amazonia is the last forest reserve that still survives in the world. Every year their lands are razed by farmers, lumberjacks and miners. If the destruction of the Amazonian territories is not stopped in too little time the entire world will suffer the consequences. The Amazonian forests are the biggest home of natural species, animals and plants, and reserve of big reserves of sweet water. The behavior of the global climate is linked to the climatic conditions of the Amazonian region, for that reason any change in this affects the entire world.
On March 25, 2010 the Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO, spread the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010, and assured that “…The world deforestation, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agriculture land, has decreased over the past ten years but continues at an alarming high rate in many countries…” The report says that “…Globally, around 13 million hectares of forests were converted to other uses or lost through natural causes each year between 2000 and 2010 as compared to around 16 million hectares per year during the 1990s…”
The report highlights the effort and success of China and India in matter of reforestation.

Less oil more coal
In the previous tables it was proven that the contamination by carbon dioxide has increased in the last years. This phenomenon has happened in spite of the oil consumption decrease experimented by the United States that is the first consumer of the world.
The oil consumption of the United States it reduced in 5.61 per cent between the years 2004 and 2008 but was substituted by China that it has become in the second consumer of oil; in the mentioned period, China increased their consumption of refined products of oil in 22.24 per cent, as you can appreciate in the table.
Table 3


But this augment of the China’s consumption of refined products of oil do not justify the important growth experimented by the carbon dioxide emissions of that country in the last years. Then the question is why this happen?
The answer may be in the consumption of coal that is the most contaminant of the fossil fuels. Indeed, China enhanced their coal consumption in 43.06 per cent between the years 2004 and 2008, followed by the United States, India and the Russian Federation.
Table 4


The consumption of coal is growing as may be appreciated in the table. The amounts are amazing; China consumes more of the double of the United States and seven times more than India. This trend should be modified because of their negative effects. These countries and the world in general should diminish their consumption of coal and substitute it by other less contaminant sources; the technology might offer some options in this sense, perhaps through the use of the geo thermal energy and green sources like the energy of the sun, the wind and the seas.
Conclusion
The consumption of energy will increase in the coming years because of a simple reason: the world population growth. This means an increase of the level of contamination worldwide. The most augment will be in the underdeveloped nations.
The great challenge for the politicians and the scientists is to develop new technologies for guarantee: a) the production efficiency b) the creation of new jobs and c) to preserve the environment.
It will be necessary to make a great economic effort in science and technology. To open the door at new ideas, new people; to listen what the unknown innovators have to say. The human being creation capacity is infinite and in any mind in any place of the world might be the solution of problems that that affects humanity.
The international agencies and the governments might create rewards, prizes, to the creation in the main fields of the knowledge; for example, to promote a global program for improve the production, create jobs and preserve the environment.
There are two options: a) to continue the routine followed until now or b) to explore new roads, to add new ideas, new people of the entire world at the task of creating a better world. What do you think?

Political economy and employment, effects of the financial crisis 2008-2009

One of the worse consequences of the financial crisis was the unemployment increase. According with the International Labor Organization between the years 2007 and 2009, the number of unemployed in the world passed from 177.7 millions of persons to 211.5 millions and the projection for the year 2010 is of 213.4 millions.
It is in the developed economies and in the countries of the European Union where the impact of the crisis was felt with most intensity. According with the ILO Global Employment Trends, January 2010, the number of unemployed in the developed economies and the European Union passed from 29 millions of persons in the year 2007 to 45.6 millions in 2010, 57% more in only two years. In the following table you can appreciate the change in the unemployment rates between the years 2000 and 2009.

These figures confirm that was in the developed nations and in Europe (Western and Eastern) where the financial crisis affected more the employment.
In September 2008 the crisis exploited with the collapse of one of the most important investment banks of the United States and since that moment began a chain of banks downfall in that country and in Europe, especially in the United Kingdom and Germany. The financial crisis it became in a social crisis and thousands of people loosed their homes, their goods and jobs in the rest of the world because of the relations of dependence and complementary between the economies.
The figures of unemployment in the United States are enough illustrative of the reality.

In the United States the unemployment passed from 7 millions of persons in the year 2007 to 14.2 millions in the year 2009, seven millions more in hardly two years, it means 100% more. These figures reveal the magnitude and effects of the financial crisis.
It do not reflect all the true
The official figures of the national and international agencies do not reflect the total unemployment reality. For a simple reason: those figures includes as employed the self-employed people, the workers of the informal sector of the economy and the workers that do not have legal rights. If these workers are excluded of the statistics of employed the unemployment figures would be very different. Important amounts of this type of workers exist in the underdeveloped nations, where millions of workers are out of the formal economy.
A growing demand
According with the International Labor Organization document “Recovering of the crisis, a global job pact”, page IV, of June 2009, “45 million new entrants to the global jobs market annually --most of them young women and men—some 300 million new jobs will need to be created from now to 2015 just to keep pace with the growth in the labor force…”
Is it possible to reach that goal?
The experience demonstrates that there is a gap between the supply and demand of employment.
The creation of jobs is linked to the economic expansion. Nevertheless, it is necessary to say that the modern economy is dominated by the intensive use of the resources of capital that –by mean of the technology-- everyday reduce the employment of workers; they are substituted by machines. That is the global trend.
The traditional economy sustains their development in the principle of the most benefit. The economy is very practice and would not change that concept by humanitarian reasons, as the creation of jobs. So that a change in the policy of intensive use of the resources of capital do not seems likely so far.
Other obstacle for the creation of jobs is the situation of the natural resources. A global shortage of resources as water and petroleum are already visible. The abundance of these vital resources is concentrated in too few regions of the globe: the petroleum in the Middle East and Venezuela and the water in the Amazonian region, but both resources are overexploited.
In South America coexist two contradictory phenomenons: the abundance of water in the Amazonian region of Brazil and the scarcity of water in the neighbors’ territories of Bolivia and Peru, as a consequence of the destruction of the Andes glaciers that provide the water to those regions.
The Inter American Bank of Development considers that in 5 or 6 years the Andes glaciers will disappear. It was assured by Juan Pablo Bonilla, Chief of the Climatic Change Department during the Annual Meeting of Governors of the bank in Cancun, March 2010.
The Andes glaciers are part of the mountain system of South America and are present in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and part of Venezuela.
A similar situation occurs with the glaciers of Himalaya that feed the main rivers of Asia; so that the crisis of water is a global problem that will be more intense in the coming years, affecting the live of the people and the economy.
A different vision
If there is not a change in the political and economical vision the problems of humanity will acquire an unmanageable dimension.
For example, it is necessary a new approach of the economy. The financial benefit must not be the most important objective of the economy and the business. The economy and the business should take in account the ecological and social consequences of the economic activities.
The scientist and technological development is something essential, but it is something essential also to give employment and just wages to the world population. It must have a balance between the economic objectives and the social reality; for that reason the economy should favor the technologies that give more employments to the workers.
Those technologies should consider also the ecological dimension. The pattern of consumption of natural resources employed until now is unsustainable at long term; the best example is how the forests have been destroyed in the entire world. We are now paying the consequences of the depredation.
In the Millennium Goals should be included in the first places the recovery of the forests. That is the unique form of to keep the live at long term.
The creation of ecological employments is a road for to achieve the economic and environment objectives. For example, the establishment of a Global Program of Reforestation sponsored by the international agencies and the governments is a way for benefit the world population. Millions of new jobs may be created through that program.
Other similar ideas might contribute to generate wellbeing for the citizens of the world. The political economy of the 21st century should have as main objective these proposals.

Political economy, overpopulation and demography

Which is the amount of inhabitants that the world economy and the individual economy of each country can feed?
In the last two centuries and especially in the 20th century the population growth had an extraordinary increase. For the 13th century the world population was approximately 250 millions of inhabitants. Five hundred years after, in the middle of the 19th century (1850) the population it multiplied by 4 until 1,000 millions of inhabitants, a growth of 300 per cent. In the following one hundred years, for the year 1950, the world population was 2,529,346 millions of inhabitants, 150% more. In the next fifty years, for the year 2000, the population grew 141% and reached 6,115,367 millions of inhabitants. The projection for the year 2030 is of 8,308,895 millions of inhabitants, 20% more in only twenty years, as you can see in the table:


Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Prospects: the 2008 Revision, New York, 2009 (Advanced Excel tables)
Last update in UNdata: 18 Jun 2009
Next update in UNdata: Apr 2011

In the mentioned historic period only a small number of countries accumulated an extraordinary wealth, the United States, Japan, and some nations of the Western Europe, while the rest of the world stayed in condition of poverty.
For a best comprehension of the reality it is necessary to say that inside the own developed nations exists the same pattern of wealth distribution that exist at international scale, because a good part of the developed nations population is affected too by the poverty.
Which are the true causes of the poverty?
Is the great population growth one of the poverty causes?
In 1798 the philosopher Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) published his Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society. Malthus foresaw two essential issues: a) the accelerated population growth and b) the limitations of the food production.
The figures showed in the previous paragraphs demonstrate how the population has increased in the last centuries. The projections for the coming years confirm the trend until now. A very important fact is that the most growth will occur in the underdeveloped nations.
What is overpopulation?
In a region, a nation or a city there is overpopulation when the economy ---with their available resources--- is not able of producing neither the food (basic goods) nor the formal employments for a portion of the population of that region or place.
It is different when the economy produce enough goods but maintain the most of the inhabitants employed with miserable wages or sub employed; this situation occur in many regions and in many countries; in this case does not exists overpopulation but overexploitation of the workers.
The economy may generate a great production (surplus) and, nevertheless, do not create sufficient number of employments ---with appropriate earns--- for giving welfare to the population.
In the modern world the productive systems use intensive methods of capital that displace the workers and substitute them by machines; when this happen the jobless affects an important number of people. In other societies the workers are practically slaves with large work-days and insignificant wages.
There is overexploitation of the resources when the production surpasses the needs of the market and big stocks of goods remain accumulated.
On the contrary, there is sub production, when the economy can not generate the sufficient goods for satisfying the market needs, the demand of a region, a country a city at accessible prices.
Population and production
They are two faces of the same coin. In theory, the objective of production is the benefit of the people and the objective of the people is producing for fulfill its necessities.
But this does not happen ever in all the societies. Sometimes, the objective of the producers and the merchants is to obtain the most income, no matter how, employing the minor effort, this mean, speculating with the goods and services that they produce or sell; it is the culture of the speculation.
When that behavior is followed by an important number of entrepreneurs, the consequences are the big economic crisis; the modern world has many experiences in that sense.
Causes of the overpopulation
There is an optimal amount of inhabitants that can live in a place; when that number is surpassed begin the problem of overpopulation.
It exist many causes for the overpopulation, among them, the natural birthrate increase, the development of effective health programs and the reduction of mortality. But there are other social important social causes like the search of employment or best conditions of live that attracts big human groups toward determined regions, countries or cities.
The migrations are a form of to export the overpopulation problem since a place toward other place. It occur inside the own countries from a region to other or between nations.
These big movements of human groups generate important politics, economics and social changes; one of them is the concentration in determined geographical areas. This concentration, in turn, provokes other new big problems.
Effects of the overpopulation, the collapse of the cities
In many countries of the world there are clear examples of overpopulation; some emblematic nations are China, India and Japan.
In America, cities as Mexico, Sao Paulo and New York are considered overpopulated zones.
The economic and social problems in the overpopulated areas are growing: jobless, sub employment, drugs, destruction of the family, crimes, traffic chaos, pollution, problems with the basic services supply as electricity, water, waste, among other effects.
One week ago I visited a Latin American city that in only few years ---as consequence of the overpopulation--- changed its style of live. I knew that city ten years ago but now I could not recognize it: lack of electricity, traffic jam unbelievable and pollution. This was one of the most pretty touristic cities of the region but in only few time the situation changed radically. That experience inspired me to write this reflection.
The concentration in the urban areas is a phenomenon proper of the industrial development. In the underdeveloped nations the number of farmers and peasants that leave the rural areas is everyday superior. This fact contributes to enhance the population en the urban areas that usually can not answer to the demand of the new inhabitants.
Impact on the agriculture
The abandon of the country has other grave consequence: the food production diminishment. When a farmer leaves the country the agriculture loses an important support.
One of the pioneers of the economy, the Physiocrats (18th century) thought that the agriculture was the main source of the wealth of nations. They were not very far of the true, because is from the Mother Nature from where man obtain the resources that employ for to satisfy its needs.
The secondary and tertiary sector of the economy receives their inputs from the primary sector; this confirms the importance of the last one.
Policy of population
There is some indifference regarding the policies of population. Few states have integral policies in this matter. Usually the affairs of population are considered since a partial point of view, for example, when the migrations become a problem, but a holistic vision of the theme is not common.
An integral policy of population has to consider the politics, economic and social effects of the changes in the behavior of the big human groups, their natural growth, their distribution in the space, the natural resources use, environment, employment, basic services and the immigration, among other issues.
Some experts have assured that the demographic explosion and the nuclear war are the two great threats to the humankind surviving. And it is true that if the growth pattern followed until now continues, in too few time the world will face most serious global problems of surviving.
Already it is visible the water scarcity, the running out of petroleum in some areas (Indonesia, for example) and the vulnerability of other regions like the North Sea. The resources of the oceans are diminishing in an accelerated form while the contamination affects the agriculture lands worldwide by effect of the use of pesticides and other chemicals. Moreover, the destruction of the forests is causing a huge damage to the live in the entire world.
The food production, especially of cereals, is concentrated in few countries and the scarcity of water is a true menace for the vegetable and animal agriculture.
While some developed countries face the situation known as demographic transition (a growing number of senior citizens) and a reduction of the birth rates, the underdeveloped nations experiment the contrary phenomenon. This fact lead to an unavoidable situation: the poverty increase at medium term.
Demographic policy
The policy of population is the macro, the global concept. In change, the demographic policy it refers only to the population reproduction. So that a demographic policy encompasses the measures for enhancing or diminishing the population birth rate of a region, country, area, etc.
The demographic policy is not only a problem of each country; it is a global problem that deserves to be deeply studied by the international agencies, the universities and the prospective studies centers. It is a problem that affects the present and the future of the entire humanity.
Together the climate change and the preservation of the forests, the population growth perspective should be a priority for the countries and the international community. It is not enough to attend the climate change but the population growth too.
The political economy main objective is linked to a purpose: the wellbeing of man and this depend of the amount of goods available for to distribute; in turn, this depend of the population size.

Political economy, the paper of the State and of the market

Since the beginning of the times until now the chiefs of tribes, monarchs, feudal lords, statesmen and politicians decided the mode of production and the distribution of wealth in all the societies.
The main economic influence has been of the governments and not of the private producers, the farmers, fishermen, craftsmen, industrials, traders nor entrepreneurs. They have played a second place because all them has been controlled by the governments, through laws and administrative decisions.
So that it is a historic lie of the Marxist philosophy assuring that the mode of production and distribution of wealth determine the political and social regime of the society; on the contrary, the politics determine the economic and social system of the society. In consequence, may be assured that the laws of market (supply and demand) have not dominated the economy of the countries. The true is that was the monarchs and now the politicians whose decide the limits of the economy and until where the economics concepts are applicable or not. Moreover, they have decided ever something essential in all the historic stages: the fiscal (tax) and commercial policies. At difference of the laws of the science, the laws of the economy are relative and are linked to the social behavior of the big human groups.
It is obvious that the monarchs and politicians has not been isolated and non permeable people; they are too human beings and like the rest of the people they receive the influence of the social media, the custom and the economic institutions of the society. But, in the reality, they have accumulated the true power; that power, in turn, has been supported in the most important of all the powers: the weapons.
In all the times the common citizens has understood this reality and in the most of the cases they have accepted the authority of whose exert the political power; when this not happened occurred the great revolutions.
The modern world knew two great revolutions: the French Revolution (1789) and the Bolchevique Revolution (1917); they changed the course of history. The first led to the born of a new social class, the bourgeoisie; this class was dominated by many years by the monarchs and the feudal lords but in 1789 the bourgeoisie took the power and began to govern a part of the world. This political revolution was, at the same time, a consequence of other important historic fact: the First Industrial Revolution that began at the middle of the eighteen century with the development of the industrial scale of production and the modern machines.
The effects of the French Revolution are still present in the world; they are the abolition of the monarchy in France and other countries, the creation of the Bourgeois Liberal State that encompasses the representative democracy and the capitalist system of free market.
In 1776, thirteen years before the French Revolution, appeared in London the first edition of the book an Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations of the philosopher Adam Smith; this book would be the economic bible of the new bourgeoisie class.
The second one, the Bolchevique Revolution, destroyed the Russia’s monarch’s power, imposed also a new class ---the proletarian class--- and the communist government in a very important part of the world: Russia, Eastern Europe, China, North Vietnam and North Korea.
The communism received their inspiration from the opposed thesis of the Wealth of Nations of Adam Smith. The new theory was presented in the book The Capital of the philosopher Karl Marx, in the year 1867, ninety one years after the first edition of the Wealth of Nations. The Capital became the new economic bible of the communists.
The effects of the Bolchevique Revolution are also still visible; these are the communist regimes that yet survive in some nations. The Communism demonstrated that is not sustainable in the time and for that reason disappeared in the Former Soviet Union and in Europe in the year 1989.
The capitalist system has passed also by serious and recurrent crisis; in the 20th century the most severe was the Great Depression of 1929 and now, in the 21st century, the international financial system fall in the years 2008 and 2009.
The indifference of the statesmen
It provoked those great economic crises. The lack of control on the financial system was one of the main causes of the economy fallout.
Until where the State must exert control over the economy is an old economic discussion.
The State has had ever the faculty of deciding the essential affairs of the economy but in some moments and circumstances the leaders of the governments has resigned to that prerogative. This caused the big economics problems.
It must have a balance between the State and the market, without this balance neither the economic development nor the business is possible.
In the last decades of the 20th century the monetarist thesis reborn promoted by Milton Friedman and his pupils of the School of Chicago. The principal idea of this conception is the absolute free market, this mean, the non intervention of the State in the economics affairs.
As it is obvious, because of practice and legal restrictions, the thesis of absolute free market was not possible of to apply in all their intensity, but she influenced the political action in some countries, especially in Great Britain and in the United States since the governments of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Regan until the recent government of George Bush Jr.
As consequence of the most recent financial fallout (2008-2009), the authorities have tried of exert a major control on the economy and especially over the financial system; on January 3 2010 in Atlanta, the Federal Reserve chief, Ben Bernanke, declared that “…Regulation must be the first line of defense against speculation…” But the lobbyists of the free market have a great power and influence. They got the bailout for the banks without restrictions. Essential industries, like the automaker and the common citizens did not have the same luck.
The global crisis seems to be permanent. In the last days have appeared the financial problems of Greek and probably Spain, situation that might have an important effect over all the Euro Zone.
Meanwhile, the jobless, the poverty and the environment problem everyday affects a major number of people in the entire world, including the developed industrial nations.
Which will be the future? What do you think?

The political economy may contribute to build a better world, reflection on the evolution

Abandoned by the politicians and economists of the 20th century, the political economy necessary will reappear in the 21st century, because of a simple reason: man can hide the true, do not recognize it, but this not change the true; and the true is that the political economy is the most important of the social sciences because it synthesize the two most important activities that determine the live of the human beings. The politics alone is not sufficient; the economy alone neither. The combination of both is the base of the power and government an all the societies.
The political economy was abandoned at the begin of the 20th century because she could not respond to the main economical challenges of that moment, among them the economic cycle, the inflation, the devaluation of the currencies, the poverty and the growing unemployment.
Alfred Marshall (1842-1924) separated the economy of the politics and tried of creating an autonomous discipline; he did it and since then emerged the economics as an independent study. The new economics focused their attention in the microeconomics and the econometrics among other issues.
Marshall had interest in the human side of the economy and in contrast with the previous classical economists he asserted that was possible better conditions of live for the working classes. Marshall had a strong social sense and assured that the principal task of the economics should be to eliminate the poverty.
But the new economy promoted by Alfred Marshall and his pupils could neither resolve the accumulated problems. It was John Maynard Keynes, a traditional economist, former pupil of Marshall, which developed the politics and economic new system that gave to the world a partial solution for the economics problems of that historic stage. That new system was the macroeconomics, an integral political proposal that considered the increase of salaries and the private and public expenditure as the key factor for attacking the jobless and the economic recession. The thesis of Keynes was contrary to the ideas sustained by the Classical Economy, which thought that the reduction of salaries was the way for reactivating the employment and the economic growth.
The conception of Keynes let the recovery of the hit economies of the post war. For that reason the thirty years of growth between 1945 and 1975 was named the Age of Keynes. That period was very favorable for the developed nations of America and Western Europe but not for the rest of the world; in those years and the followings (80 and 90) the gap between the rich and the poor nations registered a great difference. The Capitalism generated an important progress but limited only to a small number of countries.
The Communist regimes of the past and of the present, like the Former Soviet Union and the nations of the Eastern of Europe, China, North Korea and Vietnam neither reached an economic welfare; on the contrary, they were and they are impoverished countries.
The first conclusion in this sense is that none of the economics systems has been able of to improve the quality of live of the majority of the world population so far.
Origin of the wealth and the poverty
The first form of property was the community property. The primitive man did not know the private property. It was the appropriation of the first lands by the stronger men the cause of the original richness; this was too the first economic sin. The consequence of this process was the born of two classes: the owners and the exploited, this means the rich and the poor.
A reflection on the evolution
The concept of evolution deserves an especial consideration. Man of the 21st century has the same predatory attitude of the primitive man. He commits murders, abductions, cheatings and stealing, terrorist acts against innocent people, maintain the slavery and do the war.
In parallel also exists the contrary: goodness, kindness, justice, love, religiosity and peace; the great problem is that in the majority of the societies this is not the common. This lead to an unavoidable question: until what the human being has evolved?
Man has achieved a great level of development since the scientist and technological point of view but not in his social and economic behavior.
In the 21st century exist the same social and economics conflicts of the Prehistory, it means:
a) The struggle by the property of the land: a minority is the owner of the majority of the urban and agricultural lands in the entire world.
b) The majority of the workers worldwide receives an insignificant salary that do not let them neither to buy the essential food.
c) The unemployment and sub employment affects the most of the workers worldwide.
d) The economics and social conditions of the work in the most part of the underdeveloped countries are in the practice conditions of slavery.
e) The struggle by the wealth distribution benefits to the privileged rich classes.
A new conflict has emerged
But a new conflict ---unknown in the past--- has arisen in the beginning of the 21st century: the global shortages of basic natural resources ---as water and petroleum--- that change the economic paradigm. The shortage of natural resources is a consequence of the overexploitation of the resources and of the pollution. The outcome is the scarcity of manufactured goods and more inflation.
A look to the past
The evolution of the humanity is divided in two great stages: the Prehistory and the History; the first is the period previous to the invention of the writing and the second begin since that moment until the present.
In the Prehistory man built the basic elements of the progress: constructed the first instruments of stone, learned how to transform the matter through the fire and discovered the agriculture, the ceramic, the metals, the road, the tools, the architecture, the textile, among other great advances.
At the beginning of the history in successive stages developed the writing and after created the print, an instrument that changed completely the history.
The other great historic jump occurs in the 18th century: the creation of the machine of vapor and of a new scale of production developed during the First Industrial Revolution in Europe.
In the 19th century appears in the scene the Second Industrial Revolution; this was the revolution of the energy and emerged two inputs ---the petroleum and the steel--- that joined to the electricity modified completely the live of millions of people.
In the 20th century the progress of the chemical and the medicine and the creation of the mass media represented the other great changes of the history. In this century happened, moreover, two extraordinary facts: the discovery of the nuclear energy and the conquer of the space.
All the mentioned advances suppose a great dominium of the exact sciences, the mathematics, physics, chemical, biology, medicine and the astronomy.
Man do not dominate the social sciences
But the human being has not been able of to reach the same level of development in the social sciences, especially in the economics and in the politics.
Man has not been able of:
a) Diminishing the poverty and for that reason more of two thirds of the world population lives in the extreme poverty with an income of less of two dollars per day.
b) To guarantee a decent salary to the most of the workers neither to create enough employments in the world.
c) To avoid the war and to live in peace, employing the politics and the diplomacy.
d) Preserving the forests, the nature, neither of does not contaminate the planet.
What does it reveal?
Similar to the savage’s animals
This reveals that man can dominate the external things but he is not able of dominating his primitive’s impulses and his conduct. It means that in his essence man is a predatory animal similar to the savage beasts. A simple example is sufficient for validating this concept: observe the behavior of man against the other men in the war scenarios. Currently, in plenty 21st century there are unbelievable examples in this sense in the Middle East, in Africa, in Asia; you know which those scenarios are and it is not necessary to do explicit mention of them.
Has evolved the human being?
What is evolution?
What do you think?
Conclusion
The political economy may contribute to build a better world.
The first step is recognizing the failure of the economics systems so far.
The Communism has been a complete failure in the nations where has been applied.
The Classical Economy could not anticipate the depression nor the unemployment. It had a non realist and theorist vision of the economy. The classic economic model of pure competition and equilibrium supported in the laws of the supply and demand has never existed. For that reason the Classical economists could not believe that a crisis might occur as a consequence of a fail in the demand.
The Marginalist thesis of Stanley Jevons (1835-1882) and Leon Walras (1840-1910) had also a capital sin: they considered the economy as an automatic mechanism that work in independent form of the rest of the society.
By other hand, the partial vision of the microeconomics imposed by Alfred Marshall at the beginning of the 20th century neither represented a solution for the practice economics problems of that epoch.
The Keynesian model ---that combined the participation of the investments and the regulatory action n of the State with the productive action of the private sector--- has been the most successful economic model until now.
But in the eighty years of the 20th century came back again the formulas of the Classical Economy, especially the Quantity Theory of Money, from the hand of Milton Friedman and his pupils of the Chicago School. The new monetarism caused a severe damage to the world economy because it stressed the difference between the rich and the poor nations and increased the poverty in the entire world, through a mechanism known as globalization.
Which would be a solution?
A synthesis of the best of the capitalism and the best of the socialism might be the possible solution.
The recurrent economic crisis in the capitalists nations put in evidence that the free market policies without none class of restrictions generates graves consequences. The most recent economic debacle of the years 2008 and 2009 is a good example of the assured.
On January 3, 2010 during the American Economic Association meeting in Atlanta, the chief of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, pointed out that:
“Stronger regulation is the best way to prevent financial speculation from getting out of hand and throwing the economy in a new crisis…” (a) By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Sunday January 3, 2010, 1:41 pm EST.
Other leaders have expressed opinions in the same direction but the resistance to any change is enormous. This happens not only in the United States but in the rest of the capitalist’s nations of the Western World.
Two concrete measures
The politicians and the economists have lost the time in non important affairs. For example, they have not been able of paying effective attention to the three most important problems that affects the humanity: the poverty, the unemployment and the destruction of the nature and the environment.
A concrete Policy of Global Wellbeing should begin with two activities:
a) A Global Program of Employments. The ecological employments ---through the reforestation--- would be an effective way in that sense.
b) A Global Program of study and improvement of the salaries for the working classes.
These two programs might create the conditions for the construction of a better world.