Extract
An attack to Iran might set the oil
prices over $500, while the intensification of the pressure on the economies of
Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy might provoke unsuspected political changes
in the political map of Europe. The base for this hypothesis is explained in
the followings paragraphs.
- Projection of the oil prices
Nobody can predict the future. The
future is unknown. However, the historic experience is an important source of
knowledge. In the past, as a consequence of the conflicts at the Middle East
the oil prices reached its highest level. This happened after the War of Yom Kippur
in the year 1973 and later, in 1979, in occasion of the Sha of Iran, Reza Pahlevi
fall and the Iran-Iraq war in 1980.
For the year 1970 the oil price was $1.25.
By effect of the Yom Kippur war in 1973, the oil prices reached $10.7. By
effect of the Sha fall and the Iran-Irak war the oil prices reached $40 for the
year 1980. This represented an increase of 3,200 % between 1970 and 1980.
In the book Running Out, How Global
Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, page 36, Algora Publishing, New York,
year 2008, was made a projection on the future of oil prices as a consequence
of its scarcity by depletion or scarcity
because of political conflicts. The estimated projection of price was $512 for
the year 2012. (1) (2)
- Projection of the European economic crisis
The application, in the 90s years,
in Latino America of the same economic program that is developed now to Europe
provoked a deep political change in the region. As a consequence of that
program leftist and/or nationalists parties won the elections in 14 countries
of Latin America.
What might happen in Europe?
- Conclusions
-
The
natural resources scarcity, especially water and oil is something real. The
current drought in the United States is a clear proof. Something similar happen
regarding the oil. Therefore, a restriction in the supply as a consequence of
geological causes or political causes would rocket the prices to unsuspected
levels. This fact might produce a severe world recession.
-
The
European crisis has been created by Germany to guarantee its supremacy in
Europe and the market for its exports.
-
Germany
needs the European free market for their exports but other members of the
community might consider the advantages of to stay or not in the Union.
-
A
mistake in the rigid application of the norms by the European Central Bank, the
International Monetary and the authorities of the Union might provoke the
collapse of the euro and a global financial crisis.
-
If
the energetic crisis, by a conflict in the Middle East coincide with the
financial crisis in Europe, then the world situation might be no easy at medium
term.
(1)
Running Out, How Global Shortages
Change the Economic Paradigm, Algora Publishing, New York, 2008.
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