Water scarcity is everyday worse worldwide

The populations of the capitals and great cities of the developed countries still does not feel the reality because they receive water constantly; but the rest of the world not.
However, the American Continent ---that is one of the natural resources most privileged regions of the world--- already has begun to be affected by the phenomenon. In the United States, for example, there are regions as California and the Southwest, where the water crisis is already visible. The same happen in the other extreme of the country, where states as Georgia have also problems with the water availability.
In Mexico the situation is not best. The capital has not only problems of water but severe levels of contamination. In South America there are too critical situations regarding the water supply. In cities as Caracas there are restrictions one or two days per week. Brazil and Bolivia has too a grave situation of water supply. Hundreds of forests hectares are burned everyday in the Amazonas region and this contribute to enhance the problem.
The destruction of the environment ---especially of the forests--- and the contamination of the waters sources are generating a huge damage to the live.
If the current natural resources destructive trend continues, in too few years a good part of the planet will become a desert. For avoiding this, it is necessary to develop a global campaign of conservation of the natural resources and especially of the forests.
www.pablorafaelgonzalez.com

United Nations should develop a global campaign of reforestation

That is the unique way to save the live in the planet. The figures on the destruction caused by human action are simply unbelievable. Disappeared and threatened species, water pollution, desertification, air contamination, overexploitation of the seas, rivers and lakes, atomic tests, are clear signs that the planet will not resist those abuses for much time more.
The leaders of the world have the duty of to adopt today the measures for avoiding the total destruction of the environment and the live. The United Nations should develop a global and strong campaign for the conservation and reforestation of the forests.
The forests that still survive ---and specially the Amazon Region--- are the last opportunity of the planet. The importance of the forests reserves as the Amazonia is something vital for the world. A similar natural reserve already does not exist in the planet. Man has destroyed the most forest reserves of the world in all the continents.
The forests are a source of water, oxygen and a natural form to combat the global warming.
For the United Nations this campaign would be other opportunity of to do something concrete to benefit the humanity.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com

North Korea and Iran work together and might provoke the III World War

North Korea and Iran work together. On Thursday May 21, 2009 Iran announced the test of a new missile able of to reach Israel and the South of Europe. Three days after, on Sunday May 24, 2009 North Korea made it second nuclear test, detonating a powerful bomb in its territory.
This is not the first time that this situation occurs. On February 3, 2009 something similar happened. In that opportunity, North Korea announced that would deploy in orbit it first satellite. The same day February 3, Iran launched with success it first self-constructed satellite.
The technology for building a satellite is more complex than the technology for made a ballistic missile. This means that Iran and North Korea are already able of to reach objectives in the continental territory of the United States and Europe.
Iran and North Korea seems to be disposed to continue their nuclear programs and the construction of an important ballistic missile capacity.
If these countries develop the technology for setting nuclear heads on their missiles, the world peace will be in true peril. The technological advances gotten by Iran and North Korea until now let predict that these countries will obtain that capacity very soon.
The great problem is that those countries receive the technological and military help of the other two superpowers, Russia and China. China gave it help to North Korea and Russia to Iran. This reveals that there is not sincerity in the public positions of these countries. Because by a side they talk about peace and non proliferation of nuclear weapons but by the other side they give technological nuclear help to other countries as North Korea and Iran. For that reason the Security Council of the United Nations can not getting a more strong position in the theme.

pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com

Oil price might surpass $ 500 for the year 2012

The oil price might surpass the barrier of $ 500 for the year 2012. For that year the United Kingdom reserves of the North Sea will be in it final stage.
This fact will cause a revolution in the world energy and will show the weakness of our natural resources.
The appreciation on the oil price has a base: the historical behavior of the prices. For example, for the year 1970 the oil price was of hardly more of $ 1 per barrel, but ten years after, in the year 1980, the oil price reached the figure of $ 40. This represented an augment of more of 3,000 per cent in a period of ten years. The prices experimented a sustained trend to the increase in those ten years, but an event, the Sha of Iran fall in the year 1979, accelerated the crisis and the oil price reached in 1980 it major level in the history until then.
If we consider the year 2002 ---after September 11 2002--- as the year of minor prices of the oil ---$ 16 per barrel in December of that year--- and we consider a growth of 3,000 percent for the year 2012, the estimation of a price of $500 has a real sense. Remember that a similar phenomenon already happened between the years 1970 and 1980 as was explained in the previous paragraph.
Nobody can predict the future with precision but the lessons of the history are a true source of knowledgment. The history teaches us that a great jump might occur in the oil price if a fact sufficiently important happens in the market. The figures of the world oil reserves demonstrate that is in the North Sea the place where the oil will finish first. The most important oil companies of the world are aware of this fact, some governments too but they do not recognize it in public form.
A jump in the oil prices of the magnitude considered would cause a real economic crisis with severe implications in the goods and services production worldwide.
The book A Statistical Yearbook 2008, Running Out: How Global Shortages Change the Economic Paradigm, (Algora Publishing, New York, 2008) presents a complete vision of the natural resources situation and especially of the petroleum.
pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com

Is the supremacy of the United States in peril?

To begin, I want to say that I believe that the United States is a great country, with an extraordinary population that has played a stellar role in the world. For example, if the United States had not participated in the Second World War today the freedom neither the democracy would exist.
The United States has contributed in an extraordinary form to the world development and for that reason is the first power of the planet, not only since the military point of view but since the political and economic.
However, in the last years, in the horizon have emerged signs that seems demonstrate that the country might be losing part of their influence and power. Is it this true? Until where? Is it false? This essay has as objective that you, the reader, obtain yourself a conclusion on the theme.
The work is divided in two parts; in the first it is presented an international vision of the situation and in the second part is presented an appreciation of some problems that impact the United States internal policy.
First part
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Cold War end, worldwide the main institutions are in a process of deep change. The political, economics, moral and religious institutions are suffering an intense transformation. The United States has not escaped of this process. But the change in the United States is especially important because this country is the first power of the world, and everything that happen in the US affects the rest of the nations.
During the Cold War the powers maintained a permanent state of alert. The competition was not only limited to the military affairs but also to the economics, political, scientist and technologic issues.
However, since the Cold War end the attitude of alert diminished and the programs of national security of the powers began to change too.
This affected other areas as the political and economic as will be demonstrated in the followings paragraphs.
New threat to the peace
The communist threat was replaced by the Muslim terrorist threat that executed their first intense action on September 11 2000 in New York. Since then, the Western World has lived in constant uncertainty.
The reaction to the terrorist act of September 11 was the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. But those war acts brought serious consequences for the United States and the Middle East countries.
Iran intensified their nuclear program that ---obviously--- has the objective of producing nuclear weapons.
Al-Qaeda terrorist group enhanced their actions in the region and maintains the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The clashes between Jewish and Arabs grew during the last years and the hope of peace is very far.
Is the US loosing the political and military battle in the Middle East?
So far, the United States has not been able of to retire their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. On the contrary, recently it was announced that will send 20,000 new soldiers to the last country.
To reach the peace and a stable government in Iraq appear as a very difficult goal.
If the United States withdraws their forces from Iraq and Afghanistan ---without defeat first Al-Qaeda--- there is a real possibility that this group or other extremist groups take the control of these countries governments. If this happen, the consequences for the region and the world peace are unpredictable’s.
What to do then?
The hostility toward the US and the Western World in the Middle East countries has augmented in the last years and this represents a growing risk for the world peace.
Iran will develop their nuke
Without the Russia’s help Iran had not developed their atomic program. And Russia continues helping Iran in this matter. For that reason Iran will achieve their objectives. This demonstrates that the Russian discourse about the control of nuclear weapons is not true.
The sanctions of the United Nations and the United States and European threat are not enough for detaining the Iran nuclear program.
Which is the road?
North Korea blackmail to the US negotiators
North Korea violated the first Agreement of Nuclear Disarmament of 1994. In that opportunity obtained several advantages: financial help, food, petroleum and the promise of the construction of a nuclear plant for electricity.
A new Agreement was signed on February 2008 and again North Korea received petroleum and other advantages but, until now, December 2008, has not carried out the commitment of closing the nuclear facilities.
The political battle in other parts of the world
In the decade of the eighty years, the Prime Minister of England, Margaret Thatcher and the US President, Ronald Regan, adopted a new political economy.
The intensification of the free market policies and the globalization was the core of the new political approach, known as Neoliberalism.
Those ideas were imposed to the rest of the world through the financial institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The Neoliberal policy was not a success. On the contrary, one of their consequences was that nine countries of Latin America ---the majors--- are governed by leftist regimes.
Indeed, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua have leftist governments.
It is necessary to mention the Mexico’s case, where, recently, a leftist candidate, Cuathemoc Cárdenas, lost the election by too few votes. In Mexico, the left is a real option of power.
China is the new competitor
Which would be the attitude of the Chinese leadership might be reflected in the following statement of the general Zhu Chenghu, Dean of the China National University of Defense, who, on July 15 2005 in Beijing, declared to the international journalists the following:
“China must be prepared for attacking the United States with nuclear weapons, if this country support to Taiwan in their independence ambition.”
And he added:
“If the North American employ their missiles against the Chinese territory, China will respond with atomic weapons.”
“China is prepared for the destruction of all their cities at the east of Xian, in the center of the country but, the North Americans must to know that hundreds of their cities will be destroyed by the armed forces of China. The logic of the war imposes that the more weak power does their maximum effort for to defeat to their rival.”
Of course, a day after, the Chinese government assured that it was a personal statement of the general that do not reflect the official policy of the country.
However, it is valid to comment that information’s reveled by the international agencies has assured that in the past China helped to North Korea to develop their nuclear program and that, even, has sold uranium to this country. True? False?
Second part
The US might become a Latin country
This is a metaphor, but something that is not very far of the reality at long term.
In the history, ever the immigration has exerted a double influence: receive the culture of the receptor country and give their culture to the receptor country.
When a minority surpasses the 5 percent of the total population of a country already it is not a minority but an important part of the inhabitants of that country.
Since the political point of view, in a democratic system ---elections--- the five per cent of the population is decisive, especially because the difference between candidates is usually small. Since the economic point of view is also very important. The Latin population in the US is currently estimated in approximately 10% of the total.
In the reality, already it exist states of the United States with a very important presence of Latin Americans: Florida and California, for example. Even, in the first election of the President Bush, the international news agencies highlighted the decisive participation of the minority of Florida Cubans. True? False?
How to resolve the immigration problem is one of the great challenges of the US.
The nuclear security
In the last years, the international press has revealed a chain of facts that reveal how the nuclear security of the United States might be suffering a process of weakening.
The first incident happened in the year 2006, when four electrical fuses for ballistic missile warheads were mistakenly shipped to Taiwan.
The second was in the year 2007 when a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear missiles when it flew between North Dakota and Louisiana bases.
The last incident occurred on May 23 2008 when a fire destroyed part of an underground nuclear launch site in Wyoming.
As it was indicated al the begin of this work, this kind of facts might reveal that since the Cold War end, the nuclear powers has diminished their attention on their nuclear security programs.
The moral crisis, how the gays gain influence
The developed societies face a severe moral crisis. The recognition of the marriages between persons of the same sex is the cherry of the cake.
The problem is that the gay community requests the right of to adopt children. If this is approved ---and please let me to use a metaphor--- in too few years the world will be a world gay, because the sons of these couples will not know what is the right and normal and what not.
The other problem is that this social group request to be accepted without restrictions in the armed forces of the countries, and there are politicians that support this ambition of the gay community. This would be the end of the armed forces.
The corruption has reached even institutions as the Christian and Anglican churches in several countries, with priests involved in sex scandals with children.
Conclusion
These are some facts of the current world reality. What will happen in the future? What do you think? pablorafael_gonzalez@yahoo.com

The mortgages are not the main cause of the financial fallout

The mortgages crisis is one but not the principal cause of the financial bankruptcy. The main cause is the proper economic system that put the financial economy in first place.
The priority of the system is the financial speculation and not the production in the real economy. The money is the God of the system. Nothing is more important than the money. And everybody invest their money with the hope of obtaining big profits. But this not ever happen. The speculation is a risk.
The speculation in the Stocks Markets is, then, the other cause of the financial crisis. The bad investments, the over appreciation of the shares and the fall of the markets was visible too few months ago. The United States Stock Market crisis was the prelude of the banking fallout.
The lost caused by the mortgages are not enough to provoke the world economy ruin.
After months of continuous increase, on July 11 2008 the oil reached their maximum historic level, US $ 147; a similar trend was observed with the food prices.
These facts contributed to accelerate the financial problem. The first consequences of the commodities price enhance were the reduction of the consumption. The crisis favored some sectors of the economy in detriment of others.
The true is that the financial crisis came up because the banks had problems hanging over them for many years, and not only because of the mortgages situation. A financial crisis of this magnitude does not emerge by surprise.
The other great true is that in the financial crisis the bankers save their personal fortunes.
The answers, so, must be searched in the administration of the financial system that was not able of to guarantee the health of the institutions.
But the major responsibility is of the countries governments that did not exert an effective control on the banks activities.
This is not the first time that the financial system collapses and sure will not be the last. Mean while, the publics funds ---in other words, the taxpayers--- pay the account for the bankers happiness.

Banks in bankruptcy but rich bankers, Theory of the Coercive Deficit

The people that know the politics are aware that there are some activities that any government and any congress can not deny to support.
The bankers, for example, know that any government can let the savers lose their money because if this happen all the financial system is in danger. When a bank fails, usually the small clients recover their money through the governments insurance.
The bankers know that they can do anything with the client’s money because in the countries majority the governments do not have capacity for controlling their activities. They are aware too of the most important issue: that the governments will restore the money to the savers. They know that the governments and congress do not have other option but to pay to the savers because if they do not pay there is a serious risk of social disorders and economic chaos. This is known as the Theory of the Coercive Deficit.
For that reason the bankers use the savers money as they want. When a financial crisis occurs, generally you find banks in bankruptcy but rich bankers. Who fail is the bank no the bankers. Usually the bankers have their money secure in other kind of investments. The problem is for the savers that have to wait that the government restore their money.
In some countries this kind of conduct is legally punished but usually these persons ---that have enough money for living in other countries--- escape to other nations or financial paradises. In other countries ---instead of punishing these actions--- the governments give more money to the bankers.
The financial activity is something essential for any economy. But it is necessary to guarantee the money of the savers. And this implies more official control on the banks, especially over their investments.
Gift money to rich bankers is a sin. As too is a sin to deny help to the poor that struggle for keeping their homes.